“The book doesn’t require us to bet everyday, and for the most part, they do not have a minimum wager. I will gladly bet very lightly when I have an edge, but the overall market is a concern. I will gladly pass, multiple days at a time if necessary, when I do not have an edge. I will also press my action aggressively when the market is in my favor and I have the edge. All of the above helps to maximize my ROI and ensure I do not bet just because I need action, or worse…I am chasing. It’s tough to have discipline in a business that can elicit strong impulses and emotions, but if you can control yourself, you can be a danger to the sportsbooks rather than a danger to your own finances!” – The Sharp Plays
How To Read The TSP Index – The Sharp Plays Index uses a calculation that compares the performance of public money versus sharp money each day…overall and by sport…across all sports and markets available for betting at the book (i.e. game, period lines, quarter lines, sides, totals, etc.). The Index calculation’s solution is then used to visually illustrate who has the momentum (i.e. who is currently winning) for the sport being displayed in the chart and for the betting markets as a whole (represented by the “TSP-I” line). The Index can range from a VERY PUBLIC market at -5 to a VERY SHARP/VALUE trending market at +5.
When the Index is increasing, the sharp/value side is performing well and has the momentum. When the Index is decreasing, the public is performing well and has the momentum. The TSP-I line in the chart below is the cumulative overall performance of sharp & public money in the market across all active sports (including sports not specifically covered in the Index). The “TSP-I 5 SMA” line is the 5 day simple moving average of the TSP-I line.
Although the Index can go as high as 5 and as low as -5, the Index typically tops out around 3.3 to 3.5. The Index typically sees a sport bottom around 0.5 to 0.8. Sure, there are times when the Index in a sport or overall will go above 3.3 to 3.5 or below 0.5 to 0.8, however a very high percentage of the time these are the levels that result in a trend change in the markets.
What does a trend change mean? When the markets are performing very well for the sharps, and we see the Index in a sport or as a whole get to 3.3 or 3.5, this tends to mean that things are so hot that regression is becoming more and more likely. So, we should be aware with these types of readings that a hot steak is likely coming to an end. Conversely, when the Index is down to 0.5 or 0.8, it is a sign that a cold streak is likely coming to an end.
I know the natural inclination is how can you use financial market technical analysis tools to predict whether the sharps or the public is going on a run. It’s actually not that difficult. On a daily basis in the financial markets, traders are using a stock’s price, volume and other data metrics to calculate things like RSI, MACD, etc. in an effort to see where the stock is “likely” going. Technically, performance of the public & sharps in the sports markets can be tracked similarly. Analyzing the resulting data of the public/sharp analysis to show momentum doesn’t become that hard. It’s complicated, but there’s no magic involved in creating The Sharp Plays Index.
What is the best way to use the chart? If you are betting a sport and the public is in control (index is declining), you might not want to fade the public. If the sharps are in control (index is increasing), you will want to follow the sharp money and possibly fade the public. I never advise following the public or fading the sharps, regardless of the chart’s trend. It’s a personal decision though for me. You may feel differently.
Click on the league/sport, or the corresponding color in the legend below, will allow you to remove a sport(s) from the chart for easier viewing.