How It All Started, First Came Little John… The Human!
Last May I decided to create a new algorithm. At the time my content had grown exponentially from what I posted the previous year. I had just begun posting four MLB totals algorithms daily, covering the market action noon to night… soccer, tennis, MLB, NHL, NBA, even cricket, Mr. Poison, Mr. Freeze, “known” bettor action, large public bets, etc. I loved the content I was putting out, but it was slowly sucking me into a full-time job PLUS overtime! I found myself tweeting out content as I sat with family in restaurants, out golfing (I mean in meetings) or even driving around. I would get an alert that Mr. Poison placed a bet… I need to get that on Twitter for my fans!! LOL! So, despite the volume of work I was adding to my plate, I didn’t want to stop, it was too much fun! I had to do something though… it was time to automate! I needed my own robot that could handle delivering daily content, while I concentrated on the more advanced tasks that only a human could do (for now). My thoughts went to the idea of creating a super algorithm. One algorithm that could take a variety of analytic methods and combine them into one measure which would illustrate the value in one side of a wager versus the other (Team A vs. Team B, OVER vs. UNDER). It was going to take some time to create, but I knew it could be done. One of the books I worked with had an army of bots & algorithms analyzing the action by the millisecond. So, The Sharp Plays Manhattan Project began in secret in late May 2019.
Over the summer in 2019, there was success and failure in the creation of my super algorithm. However, by preseason football things were starting to take shape. At this point, I was beyond back-testing and was now building a tracking of live performance for the super algorithm. The live performance was going along great! My next target was to see how the super algorithm would do with a full weekend slate of college and NFL football. Over the course of September the performance could not be denied. I was able to build a tracking of hundreds of wagers and the analysis illustrated to me that the super algorithm’s performance was beyond standard variance… my programmers and I did it!
Why Little John? At the same time in the Fall of 2019, as I was testing the super algorithm, I brought on a friend of mine from the gambling business. He’s a sharp bettor and I thought, let me have him come in, provide a different perspective and provide content. Since Robin Hood’s sidekick was Little John and Little John was a big gruff guy, I thought it was the perfect name. Well, unfortunately the content didn’t go as planned and Little John, the human version, was an epic failure. Little John thrives on late information and I was having him post plays first thing in the morning. I will allow him that excuse as to why his performance didn’t translate. Anyway, Little John lost 19 units. As with anything new that I attempt, usually it is either a TREMENDOUS success or an EPIC failure, there is rarely any middle ground. Well, the human version of Little John was an epic failure and I closed up that content in early October.
Fast forward to late November and my super algorithm was continuing to perform quite strongly across all sports. I had now achieved my critical mass for statistical analysis… 1000 total wagers! The overall performance was well outside standard variance which told me that my super algorithm did indeed hold an edge over the odds. Success!! The following week I announced the Little John Protocol to the public. Of course the legions of haters made sure to point out that the first Little John iteration failed. Yes, this is how life works. You try something, it fails, you assess the failure, make changes and do something different in an effort to achieve long-term success. Haters usually don’t understand this because most of them tried something, failed and were too lazy or lacked the intelligence to overcome the setback. So, they resign themselves to attacking those who do achieve the success they so desire… but I digress! 😉
Since the goal of my super algorithm was to have an automated assistant (a sidekick if you will) and because I already had the Little John graphic designed (I never want a cool graphic to go to waste), the super algorithm was christened… the Little John Protocol. Protocol? A protocol defines the rules, syntax, semantics and synchronization of communication between computer systems. The name fit perfectly for what the LJP did. At this point in December, I now began posting LJP Scores for different events. As with anything created from scratch, sometimes you expect it to operate one way, but then when it goes live, you find other angles within it. The Little John Protocol was no different. With hundreds of eyes watching the LJP in action, people started to notice angles. One of the angles was that the late LJP Score changes were EXCEPTIONALLY strong. Yep, a new angle, beyond just the LJP Score itself was born. Why would this be a good angle? The LJP is analyzing the betting markets in real-time. A late changing LJP Score means there is Late Sharp Money involved in the market and we all know how good the Late Sharp Money angle happens to be. So, as the LJP evolves, I expect more and more of these consistent and profitable angles, beyond just the LJP Scores, to show themselves. It is incredible to me how far the LJP has come not just in the past year, but in only the past six months since it was created. Not to mention, three of the six months have been on lockdown with no “normal” sports to even analyze.
The LJP is a Success! How Best To Deliver The Content?
The LJP is a success, but how do I present this content properly to the audience… especially since the LJP Score is always changing? If I post an LJP Score 30 minutes before an event and walk away, by the time the event goes off, the scores could be completely different! It all comes back to what I said at the start of this article, I need a robot assistant! An assistant that could deliver the same content I delivered, but without me having to be at the computer 24/7 to do it.
In early September 2019, a new bit of content began to show strong promise and success… “Late Sharp Money”. The LSM angle was another big hit with the audience (oh great, more content to cover), but it required me to be at the computer within the final 10 minutes before any event to properly review & report the action. You can’t report “Late Sharp Action” two hours before an event. Therefore, if I didn’t want to be at the computer at all hours, I needed a robot that could look for the same parameters I would look for when reporting “Late Sharp Action”. Since betting is the business of numbers and tracking accounts, it was not too hard to write out the parameters which I consider for Late Sharp Money and then have a robot constantly looking for situations which fit those parameters in the final 10 minutes to an event. I wrote out the formula that my brain looks for to quantify “Late Sharp Money” and had this built into a new robot. But wait, everyone loves “known” bettor coverage too! When it comes to “known” bettor action, I look for someone the book has rated as a “sharp bettor” and who is betting on an event at least 50% more than their average bet. Another simple formula to quantify and have a robot constantly analyzing & reporting.
Slowly, I began creating what was basically my own robot army. Now I need command and control of this army. I need a unified operating system which connected to all my robots. I had the Little John Protocol, the “known” bettor monitor, the “Late Sharp Money” tracker, etc., but I need one centralized platform where all these robots reported their findings. At this point the “real-time system” was born. I then used this “real-time system” to alert me to these various events which I then reported to all of you on Twitter. My robot army saved me a ton of time during the football season. However, wouldn’t it be even better to cut out the middle man? Wouldn’t it be better to allow my audience to access this system themselves? Thereby I could deliver all this content to people, but I wouldn’t have to be at the computer at all times to do it! Instead of waiting for me, the audience could access the most up to date information for themselves. So, I needed a way to allow all of you out there to access this real-time system without giving you access to the system (due to book security, proprietary formulas, etc.). Hmmmmmm… how do I give someone access to a system without giving them access to a system? I know, SportsMaster! Huh???
Back in the late 90’s there was a sports handicapping program called SportsMaster. Basically, it would download sports stats for NFL teams. The program would then allow you to select your handicapping technique using the stats which would then predict the lines for the upcoming games. Once you downloaded the stats and selected your analysis method, you would press “Run”. Upon pressing “Run”, SportsMaster would send a report to your printer of the calculated lines for each of the games (using your method of assessment). Every time you ran a new assessment, it just printed out a new report. It never displayed this report on the screen, just sent the report right to the printer. What if I had a tool whereby my real-time system created a report which was then printed to a location online? Thereby, instead of giving people access to the actual program, they had access to an up to date report that was digitally printed every second. Yes, that’s why when you access the real-time system it is basically a rudimentary text file. You are not seeing an elaborate and beautifully designed web page or computer system, you are seeing a real-time digital printout of a report. Perfect! I could now give my audience access to my robot assistant and it’s army of little robots putting out all this content, but without putting the security of the system at risk! Oh and the information the audience would get would only be delayed 20 seconds or less from when I was able to see it for myself!
In December, the “real-time” system was launched publicly featuring one robot… the Little John Protocol. It was not only an immediate success, but very well received by the audience! The exciting part for me was if the audience liked this initial and basic version (only the LJP), they would love all the updates, upgrades and angles I envisioned as this system evolved. I looked forward to the real-time system providing Sharp Consensus counts (which it did for the bowls and NFL playoffs), “known” bettor action updates (which it did during regular season NCAABB), Late Sharp Money and more! Little by little I continued to expand the options and features (like text alerts) provided through the “real-time system”. I could not wait to unleash the full power of the system on March Madness. Early in March, the March Madness Bonanza launched and right out of the gate the “real-time system” was 5-1 on selections! It was working! Then we all know what happened… the world ended.
When one door closes, another door opens. While my dream of letting the full “real-time system” loose on March Madness did not come to full fruition, the lack of sports has allowed me to fast track a lot of work I wanted done with the system. No better time than quarantine to prepare the “real-time system” for when “normal” sports eventually come back! Oh and during this time I also decided that calling the real-time system the “real-time system” was a little silly. I decided to rename it TSP Live since it’s my content LIVE at all times! 😀
Over the past two months I have offered TSP Live each week to cover some event or bit of content. Having TSP Live running each week allows me to optimize it and test new features for when “normal” sports return. I have added the text alert feature which has been working perfectly, along with a variety of other behind the scenes testing! I cannot wait for this coming football season to utilize TSP Live… and create a few new features too! As we get ready for a return to normalcy, let’s now look at the performance and angles of the Little John Protocol and TSP Live up to this point.
The Angles (so far)…
When I started TSP Live (back when it was just “the real-time system”), I envisioned it would deliver the latest LJP Scores of events. I expected that the LJP Scores would be the main assessment tool. I assumed that LJP Scores of 3-5 would be qualified plays and LJP Scores of 1-2 would be unqualified or small plays at best. However, as often happens, actual performance has you rethink your hypothesis. In this case, the LJP 1’s and 2’s also achieve performance beyond standard variance. In fact, the LJP 2’s have actually outperformed the LJP 3’s! Even the LJP 1’s have a winning record. So, I now feel that any play with a positive score as post-time approaches is worthy of betting. How much should you bet? I will leave that to you. I do not like to get involved in people’s finances. You need to bet what is comfortable for you. However, week after week I have witnessed the LJP 1’s and 2’s performing and, like last week with UFC, sometimes outperforming the LJP 3’s. Now the LJP 3’s hold their own quite well, I don’t want to take anything away from them, but again, I think the LJP 1’s and 2’s now deserve a look too as qualified wagers! There are over 550 total publicly tracked results from the LJP as a whole and 269 results tracked for LJP 1’s and 2’s. I think it is sufficient for a base level of statistical confidence of the LJP 1’s and 2’s performance.
Before the world ended, the Top LJP Score of the Day turned into an excellent betting angle. Unfortunately, there are not enough events in the day to get a proper Top LJP Score of the Day qualification. I look forward to action returning so the Top LJP Score of the Day angle can continue to be assessed.
Some of the strongest angles in the LJP have nothing to do with the scores themselves, but rather how the scores move. An excellent betting angle has been the Wild LJP Moves. These are moves of 5 points or more in an LJP Score. The moves do not necessarily have to be late moves or sharp moves, they can develop over the course of a few hours as the event approaches. An example would be Team A has an LJP Score of 3OPEN however as the day goes along, Team B now achieves an LJP Score of 2U… it’s a 5 point LJP Score move. Situations like this have shown that betting Team B is a profitable angle. Why would this work? Essentially, the score transition is showing consistent sharp buying on Team B. Consistent sharp buying is always a good angle to follow. Consistent buying illustrates sharps building potentially large positions over an extended time frame. If sharps are building large positions, it is always good to give it a look!
The other type of Wild LJP Move, which has proven successful, is the late LJP Score change. We have witnessed this late change angle four times so far in TSP Live action and it is 4-0. Basically, within 5-10 minutes to the start of an event, there is a sharp change in LJP Score of 3-4 points or more. When you see that minimum of a change in LJP Score, so close to the start of an event (final 5-10 minutes), it is a good sign that sharp money is closing up a head fake (great betting angle to follow), sharp money received some late information before the start of the event, or sharps loved a position so much they waited for the highest limits to hammer it. Any of those three possible reasons for the late LJP Score change are solid betting angles to follow. Having the LJP provides a visual illustration of this action.
There are a number of other angles I am monitoring, however the above angles are those which have been discussed publicly for some time now. Not to mention, most of you have witnessed the performance for yourself. As I continue to study different angles, I will bring them to public attention and begin tracking them for all of us to follow along together!
Like any betting angle, no matter how consistently profitable long-term it may be, it will have short-term losses and cold periods. I expect as TSP Live covers new events and in new ways, additional profitable betting angles will show themselves. Also, just because the system has shown long-term success, does not mean it will win every single time it is in operation. Will it win long-term? I have little doubt given the performance publicly and what I have tracked privately. Like anything though, if you do not maintain proper bankroll management and if you bet as though it will be hitting 80% anytime it is in action, you might as well burn your money now. It ain’t happening. Instead, if you have patience and discipline, utilizing a long-term approach, the LJP and TSP Live should be two great tools to use in your betting long into the future.
The creation of TSP Live gives me the ability to automate almost 95% of the content I deliver. Throw in text message alerts attached to the system and it is better than I ever envisioned. The best and most exciting part of this is I have only just begun to scratch the surface! TSP Live and the LJP are still very much in their infancy. I look forward to their continued development, evolution and expansion in the weeks, months and years to come. It should be a fun 2020… if only we could get more sports back in action to attack! Hopefully soon my friends! Stay safe & healthy!!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays