As the year winds down I am using some downtime this week to get things ready to begin 2022. There is a lot of clerical work to be done, so might as well do it now so I can hit the ground running in the new year. The first task on my to do list is to archive the previous year’s records. So, the following have been added to the records archive at https://thesharpplays.com/records-archive/…
|Other Sharp Consensus||N/A||16||8||66.7%||7.3|
|Early Sharp Buys (TSP Daily)||N/A||628||586||51.7%||35.1|
|Late Sharp Money NCAAF||N/A||2||3||40.0%||-1.3|
|Late Sharp Money NFL||N/A||0||1||0.0%||-1.1|
|“Known” MMA Bettors||N/A||2||3||40.0%||4.5|
|“Known” Boxing Bettors||N/A||1||1||50.0%||-0.4|
|“Known” Soccer Bettors||N/A||0||1||0.0%||-1.0|
On January 1st, I will also be archiving the Parlays, Teasers and Rollover records that you currently see at https://thesharpplays.com/sports-content-records/. I could probably archive them today, as I don’t expect any more in the coming days, but I’ll hold out just in case. Individual season records (NFL, NCAAF, NHL, etc.) are achieved at the end of the season. Sports like soccer, MMA, Boxing, tennis, etc. which run almost year round are archived at the end of the year.
So, on January 1st I will post a message to Twitter and Telegram to let you know the exotic performance totals and I will update this article with those totals as well.
Now for some optimizations. I am making these changes on an interim basis to see how it goes in a live format. I am also putting these out there to hear the inevitable responses of how change is not good. If the response is broad based with legitimate concerns, I am happy to reverse the changes. If the response is limited, then I will enact the change. My goal with all my changes throughout every year is…(1) to increase performance of the content, (2) to consolidate the content, and (3) to optimize the methods of assessment. Essentially, in gambling things perform well and then become obsolete. It’s why the content is ever-evolving to stay at the peak of performance. As I have said many times, algorithms and methods I used in 1997 to return a profit were no longer were good in 2005. Methods I used in 2005 were obsolete by 2007. You always have to be tweaking, adapting and evolving. So, one change I am going to enact is the following…
#1) In 2021, all the LJP 1U scores returned a profit of +3.1 units. During the same period, Secondary Angles (all of which are LJP 1U’s) achieved an ROI of +28.7 units. Clearly what is covered by the robots to create Secondary Angles using LJP 1U’s optimizes the LJP 1U methodology. As such, moving forward ONLY LJP 1U’s that achieve the parameters of a Secondary Angle will be reported by me, robots, and/or in the analytics. Thereby LJP 1U will be synonymous with “Secondary Angle” starting today.
The change fits with my “change” goals above. First, it increases the performance given the quality of Secondary Angles compared to all LJP 1U angles. Second, it consolidates the content because instead of having only some LJP 1U’s become Secondary Angles…ALL LJP 1U’s that you see will fit the Secondary Angle criteria. So, no longer a need to track Secondary Angles as a separate category. Third, it optimizes the method of assessment because it removes the fat from LJP 1U’s. There were fewer Secondary Angles in 2021 than there were LJP 1U’s. So, of the 413 LJP 1U’s that were achieved in 2021, a profit of +3.1 units was delivered. Yes, it’s good to have a positive ROI over 400+ angles (ROI = +0.8%). However, of the 208 Secondary Angles achieved in 2021, a profit of +28.7 units was delivered (ROI = +13.8%). So, you had a higher profit on half the plays. To me, this change is a no brainer. Let’s cut the LJP 1U fat and stick to only those LJP 1U’s which are Secondary Angles…fewer plays, substantially higher ROI, less noise in the system.
#2) What about Primary Angles? That’s easy…100% of LJP 2U’s and above are Primary Angles. So, I will just drop the Primary Angle title. Having LJP Score performance tracking and Primary or Secondary Angle performance tracking really just becomes redundant given the change in #1. Thanks to the content log starting on January 1st in 2022, checking current year/month performance of specific LJP Scores then becomes very easy for anyone following.
I will thereby be archiving the LJP 1U non-secondary performance to the Records Archive page…
|Non-Secondary Angles 1U||452||431||51.2%||-13.7|
|Secondary Angle LJP 1U||218||162||57.4%||49.8|
#3) TSP Live Alerts which used to be labeled as Primary and Secondary Angle Alerts will now just be “LJP Score” alerts and will report the angle and its respective LJP Score. So, these angles will still be delivered by alert, just with a new title. Nothing within the parameters of the Primary or Secondary Angle is being changed…just the labeling.
One of the biggest complaints people have, which I totally understand, is there are SO MANY angles to follow and understand. Unfortunately, it is the nature of the beast. As you continually work to find an edge, new angles are created. It could mean there are 100 angles in the arsenal in just a few years time. So, when possible I like to cut the fat and minimize the angles I track and monitor. It’ll make it easier for those following and optimize the performance.
Some other changes enacted to get ready for 2022, that I previously discussed at various times in December…
A) TSP Daily can be issued anytime from 10pm ET to 12pm ET the following day. It will allow me to attack angles overnight should a situation arise.
B) TSP Daily’s commentary section will move from recaps to more strategy and planning for the day ahead. I know there is only so much time you have and so much you want to read in the morning, so cutting out the recap (unless necessary from a strategy standpoint) will dramatically streamline the content delivered.
C) TSP Live Analytics will use different analytics to attack different sports. Every sport is different and every sport’s betting market operates in unique ways. So, TSP Live Analytics will have a different arsenal of tools to deliver content for different sports. Some sports like football might use the whole arsenal available. Other sports like NCAAB might only use the LJP, Oddsmaker’s Report and Hermes. It’ll come down to what works and what does not.
D) The Financial Market Analytics subscription will deliver FMA Position Spotlight alerts and FMA (i.e. “Tues #1”) alerts only when there is something material to report/discuss versus simply doing it based on a daily schedule. Which means some days might have multiple alerts, other days there may be zero alerts. Alerts might be issued at any time of the day as well…not just before or during trading hours.
E) The Telegram Trading Alerts (t.me/tspfma) will be delivered only when there is something material to report…following the guideline of the FMA alert delivery laid out in “D” above…some days might have multiple alerts, other days zero alerts.
I think that covers all the changes for 2022…at least that have been enacted or planned so far. If any are added, I will update this page. At the end of the day, any changes will always be met with resistance. It’ll just depend how many people take issue with a change. I have operated The Sharp Plays and its content since 2011. While my decisions and myself are far from perfect, I like to think that the changes and additions through the years, while having failures along the way, delivered and continue to deliver some of the best sports and trading content anywhere! Thanks for being a part of the fun with me and giving me a reason to innovate, evolve and to do what I do with The Sharp Plays each and every day! Here’s to a great 2022!!!
Good luck in your action!