“It’s very easy to be a critic. It’s very hard to create.
Yet it’s creation, not criticism that builds societies and indeed inspires people.” – Douglas Murray.
What is a Robin Hood Selection?
Robin Hood Selections are +EV wagers that are derived from the over 500 different algorithms I have developed over the past 20+ years. I also have algorithms I have designed for the financial markets, voting predictions and a lot more. I love finding ways to use math to predict future events, whether sports related or not. My algorithms cover most major and minor domestic and international sports… sides, totals, propositions, exotics and even special events like the Home Run Derby. I expect, long-term, that the Robin Hood Selection will achieve a win percentage of 56% or better. Thereby, you can think of it as taking from the books and giving to the players, hence Robin Hood Selections! The lifetime performance for Robin Hood Selections can be found on the right side of this page and the homepage. Treat any “Robin Hood Selection” within your betting as you would any bit of information that I post/tweet each day. Bet disciplined & intelligently! Robin Hood Selections, when available, are posted free on Twitter or occasionally as part of TSP Live. For more information, visit the TSP Live link in the menu or click here!
I dedicate the Robin Hood Selection to my aunt. Recently, my aunt unexpectedly passed away. She was like a mom to me… always there no matter what I needed. My aunt supported me wholeheartedly when I told her I wanted to break into the gaming business. She was also there to help me through my failures. She was a big sports fan too. Every year I would watch the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament with her. It was a tradition. While she enjoyed college basketball, she was THE BIGGEST football fan I have ever known. My aunt was best known however as a teacher. She taught in a city school and was a favorite among students. I cannot tell you how many times I’d be out with my aunt and someone would run up to hug her. It would be one of her old students excited to see her again. Her former students were eager to tell her what they were up to and what she did for them. I already knew she was special, but it was awesome to witness what she meant to so many people. One of the many ways we keep her spirit alive is through a scholarship I started in her name and for the benefit of students in her school district. She shaped many lives in positive ways, myself included! I would not have made it where I am today without her. ❤️
Betting Math –
Below are some formulas that may help in your algorithm development. I will build this page out as I discuss different formulas. When I do, I will add them here. If you’d like to see some formulas that I don’t have here, send me a message to tell me what I’m missing!
If you are looking for data to use for your algorithms, I love Team Rankings for ease of use and quantity/quality of data (TeamRankings.com). You can also check out FanGraphs.com or even the websites for the sports leagues themselves.
Calculate a Favorite’s Moneyline based on Implied Probability
-(Implied probability / (100 – Implied probability)) x 100 = Moneyline
A team that wins 72.7% looks like this for the moneyline calculation… -(72.7/(100-72.7))*100 = -266
What that means is this team is a value under -266
Calculate Implied Probability for Favorites based on Moneyline
Flip that calculation around. If you know the moneyline you can see what that means as to what the oddsmaker is calculating for that team or wager’s implied probability…
Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability
For the example, if the wager is -183 then here’s what that equals in terms of implied probability of the event happening…. 183/(183+100)*100 = 64.7%
Calculate Implied Probability for Dogs based on Moneyline
Implied Probability (“IP”)= 100/(Plus Moneyline+100) so a +115 dog means… 100/(115+100) = 46.5% IP
Calculate Moneyline for Dogs based on Below 50% Implied Probability
Moneyline odds = ((100 – IP)/(IP) * 100)… so a 46.5% implied probability means… ((100-46.5)/(46.5)*100) = +115
Decimal Odds conversion to Moneyline
Use the following formula to convert a Decimal of 2 or greater to a Moneyline: (Decimal – 1) x 100 = American Moneyline
Use the following formula to convert a Decimal less than 2 to a Moneyline: (-100)/(Decimal – 1) = American Moneyline
Moneyline conversion to Decimal Odds
For positive Moneylines, divide the moneyline by 100 and then add 1: (Moneyline/100) +1 = Decimal
For negative Moneylines, divide 100 by the moneyline removing the negative sign and then add 1: (100/Moneyline) + 1 = Decimal