Recap & Week Ahead – Here we are, back together once again for another football season. I both LOVE and HATE doing this newsletter. It’s a lot of fun to put it together and I really enjoy the content, but it takes a decent amount of time to source the information, think of what I want to discuss, and put it all together…all during the busiest sports season of the year…football. It’s one of those things I will enjoy doing every week and then when the final issues goes out in December I will say, whew…that’s all over now! So, I hope you enjoy the weekly TSP Newsletter and the time and effort I put into. The content won’t win every week, but by the end of the season I want to see every section profitable! So, hopefully all that time and effort will pay off for all of us! At least you can’t beat the price of admission…FREE! LOL!
Not a whole lot to cover in this section this week since very little happened this past weekend in NCAAF. We saw teams expected to be shitty play shitty. We saw a team expected to be good, who always seems to find a way to play shitty, end up playing shitty with Nebraska! Pretty boring weekend for sharp action, but I don’t expect that to be the case this week.
We have a full slate of action for the week ahead, covering conferences big and small. The fun begins tomorrow with one write-in game, then a decent sized card on Thursday, some good action Friday, then of course the usual Saturday NCAAF and even some NCAAF on Sunday & Monday! I am definitely looking forward to it. Below I will get into that action and what I am seeing popping so far.
The big announcement to open the newsletter, which really came last week is two fold. First, TSP Live is now “TSP Live Analytics”. The name change was intended to reflect the fact that TSP Live has expanded and that expansion has been an array of DAILY real-time analytics available to subscribers. The second part of that announcement is simply that all the analytics were live this past weekend. For a description of what’s now in the TSP Live Analytics arsenal, visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
I cannot believe how far TSP Live, now “TSP Live Analytics” has come in just over a year. Those TSP Live veterans out there will remember logging into a single page with some real-time data posted. Last football season TSP Live evolved into providing real-time LJP Scores, Primary/Secondary Angles as well as Sharp Consensus Angles on the weekends. Today, TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis. It still delivers real-time LJP Scores again this football season, and all the angles you came to know and love, but now it is so much more!!! For more details or to signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning +148.9% on all trades, plus another 59.6% with the FMA Radar positions! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased individually for $100 for the month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. It is your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support!
Before I get to this week’s action, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! The channels provide some of the best content, most of it free, that I put out. There are three Telegram channels, with another one in the works. There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Early Sharp Buys (0-0 +0.0 units) – The Early Sharp Buy was the best performing section in last year’s newsletter. It’s actually the success of this section early in the season last year that lead to the creation of the Early Sharp Buy section in TSP Live’s Daily Briefing! To start the season, the wager getting the largest early sharp buy is Minnesota +14 over Ohio St. Those of you in TSP Live Analytics might ask why this has not hit any of the analytics yet. The volume is still very low on the games and not at the level necessary for the analytics to consider it material. Still, a good number of sharps have taken positions on Minnesota. It’s a typical situation where you would have a potentially overpriced chalk….start of the season with a big name team against a lowly opponent. We’ll see if the value pays off!
Early Algorithm Look (0-0 +0.0 units) – Early Algorithm Look had a losing season last year, but I look forward to getting the computer’s ass in gear for 2020-21 to bring in a winning season! I ran my favorite NCAAF spread algorithm to see what the values were for the week. The biggest calculated value was Arizona +12.5 over BYU. The algorithm calculates the spread here should be 8.5, which is providing us 4 points of value on Arizona.
My Handicapping (0-0 +0.0 units) – I provide a disclaimer every week in this section to say that I SUCK as a handicapper. In the first year of the TSP Newsletter I actually won in this section. Last year I did not, so I need to kill it from start to finish in 2021 to make up for it and give the “My Handicapping” section a lifetime winning performance! My adventure in handicapping this season starts with UCLA +3.5 (buying the hook) over LSU. Why? I think UCLA is going to surprise people this year and I think LSU is still getting WAY too much credit based on past history versus their present quality. I am not saying they are an awful team, but definitely overvalued right now. So, this gives me one of my favorite situations…the overvalued team going up against an undervalued team. Throw in the fact that UCLA is at home, with a game under their belts…I will take it! Give me UCLA +3.5! P.S. Don’t forget the first line of this section if you decide to follow me! LOL
My Two Cents – For those new this season, the My Two Cents section is designed to be fun. It’s just me venting on any number of topics, sports/gambling related or not. It’s very therapeutic for me, so I appreciate you giving it a read!
I thought, given that a new season is starting, I should go over the topic that is most important to me. The topic is betting reality. As I discussed with someone this morning, my goal is always to teach bettors the reality of sports betting. Too often bettors begin their journey with the belief that making money in sports is easy or at worst, relatively easy. I wish I knew how this belief gets rooted in so many gamblers…myself included. If I knew where it were rooted I could cut this betting cancer out before it takes hold in gamblers…and completely destroys their finances. When I started betting I felt it was relatively easy too and that sports betting would be the solution to a leisurely and carefree life. I don’t know why I felt that way either as I look back on it. People walk into a casino ready to play craps or blackjack hoping to win, but not expecting to win. Nobody walks into a casino and says, “I am going to be a professional craps player.” However, far too large a majority of sports bettors walk into a sportsbook and think, I am going to make my living at this…or at least a nice second income. Again, no idea how this thought gets rooted or was developed even in myself. When you look at sports betting, the last thing you should think is “easy money”.
Perhaps all those touts or “alleged” professional bettors telling me when I was first starting out that it was easy. These folks sell you on the dream, and once someone buys into a dream, it is near impossible for them to ever let it go. These showmen show you the pictures of the boats, women, parties, oceanfront condos, cars and money. Once you are sucked into that being a possibility in your life through sports betting, you are willing to dedicate every dollar to chasing that dream. It’s the same method that these Nigerian scams use to reel in their victims. These are the scams that tell you they are some diplomat and need your help to hide money, usually tens of millions of dollars. If you help them you will get a cut of the money. To assist them though you have to pay some customs or bank fees for the wire. Once you pay that first fee you are sucked in and they keep getting you to pay fee after fee. Even when many of the victims realize the dream they were sold was actually a nightmare, they are too far in and still keep paying fees. Next thing they know, they’re broke and they can’t pay anymore fees. Yep, that’s how gambling works if you don’t have a grasp on the realities of it.
Last year I ranted on the topic of all these “professional” sports bettors who readily comment on Twitter or in the media, with their noses high in the air, at how great they are at betting sports! These same folks never post any strategy discussion, rarely if EVER post their wagers before the events and never offer content to their audience to let them in on their incredible talents. Why? You know why! As soon as they were to do it then the veil of their self-proclaimed sports betting god status would quickly disintegrate. At which point they would lose what they love most…the attention. I won’t mention any names, but there are several on Twitter who readily let you know how awesome they are at their “profession”. I guess they don’t realize people do book their bets and know how they really perform! LOL! You would piss yourself if you heard the annual net losses of many of the arrogant bastards you have come to know and love.
I do enjoy how people attack me on Twitter for a variety of things. Yet, unlike the “professionals” I put all my content out there every day. I recap my content (free & paid) daily the following morning on Twitter and have updated the records daily since 2011. Not to mention since June 1st I now have a complete content log of everything I post that is updated daily as well. Show me one of those “professionals” that does the same thing. If you find a professional who won’t post his wagers and especially won’t track the content, realize he is simply a professional self-promoter. If any professional, tout or gambler indeed had quality content and performance, they would not hide it. Those folks would revel in it, they would flex on it, and they would eagerly track it to show off. If they don’t do those things, that should tell you all you need to know about their abilities. I am confident in what I do and I am not scared of transparency.
Anyway, I digress on the topic of these professional blowhards. Instead let me get back to my topic on betting reality. I don’t care if you follow me or not. Just remember that the best sharp bettors in existence will hit around 55% lifetime betting point spreads. Yes, 55%! Not 60, 65, 70%. Maybe they will have a blowout season for 60% on low volume (less than 250 wagers), but if you average it all out across all seasons, it’ll be around 55%…if they are one of the best. The best sharp bettors will lose multiple weeks and even months at a time. If I enter a losing streak for two weeks people will unfollow me on Twitter or discuss how awful the content is that I post. These folks will then go in search of better content on Twitter and elsewhere. I will see them leave, but fortunately I have a good memory. It’s funny how many of those I see unfollow me will inevitably return 1,2,3 months later. These people leave to go in search of the Holy Grail of sports betting information only to realize it doesn’t exist. I wish I could hear their inner voice in that moment when they say, as much as I hate that damn TSP, he’s still got the best content out there. I have haters who take any chance they can to say something negative to their followers about me…and here’s the funny thing…they are reading this newsletter right now! I thank them because it is a testament to what I do and the content I offer. If everything I did sucked, the haters wouldn’t be reading this and spending time to hate me, you wouldn’t be reading this and nobody would care enough about The Sharp Plays to even bother hating it. So, to the followers and the haters, thank you for your loyalty and support!
I am not arrogant or pompous about most things in life, but when it comes to my content, yes I am! It is the best and most transparent out there. Whether you like me or not, whether you follow me or not, just let me leave you with one thing. If you never listen to another thing I say, please listen to this…sports betting is HARD. Even for the sharpest of football bettors there will be great weeks, and plenty of awful weeks too. In the end and when they dust settles, if they did it right, there will be a nice pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Gold that they ground out over a season of ups and downs. Remember you can’t have the pleasure without the pain. Be ready for bad days, bad weeks, and even bad months. Have discipline, good bankroll management and patience. Grind those profits and if you are stressing each win or loss, you are betting WAY TOO MUCH and are doomed before you even start, trust me! Most gamblers are not built for sports betting to be an income generator for them. If it were simple to be a PROFITABLE sports bettor then everyone would do it…because a vast majority of people want to be professional bettors. It just isn’t that easy and that’s why the LEGITIMATE professional bettors are so few and so very far between. If someone unprompted tells you they are a professional bettor, chances are they are just another douche who can’t accept betting reality…and their own reality.
I know as someone who provides a paid sports betting content platform that I probably shouldn’t say everything that I just said. I should say how by following TSP Live you can start with only a 5 unit bankroll and will be on the path to making gambling your main source of income in a few short months. How it will be easy as you experience week after week of profit, month after month of blowout wins and collecting from your book. How within a few months you will likely quit your job and just bet professionally for a living. If you believe it, send me an email because I have a friend in Nigeria who has $50,000,000 and needs your help getting it out of the country. You just have to cover the fees and you’ll get 10% of the amount for your assistance! LOL!!!
If it’s too good to be true, it ALWAYS is. Nothing good in life comes easy. Yes, of course you can be another professional bettor, and even earn all or part of your living from it. Just be ready to bust your ass to do it and understand the chance of you failing is exponentially larger than the chance of you succeeding. If you are crying or overly emotional after a bad week or bad stretch…let that be the signal that your betting reality is a little out of whack and need adjustment. If you can grasp betting reality, you will then have the proper expectation of performance. You will then understand that sports betting is not printing money. If you want to print money, get a job with the Federal Reserve or US Treasury.
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays