Recap & Week Ahead – Here we are…November already, Week #10 of the TSP Newsletter…and the halfway point of the NFL season. Cannot believe it is upon us already! Coming off a decent week and weekend to end October. Also, coming off a strong Monday to begin November! Let’s hope that continues. As for this past weekend…Saturday started rough with the TSP Live Radar 74+ angles going 0-2, but then things picked up nicely in the evening as the Secondary Angle (LJP 1U) came through and then the Book Position on Penn St cashed. Sunday was a better day as the Primary Angle/Premium Play on Carolina got there outright as did the other Book Position this weekend on New Orleans outright and the Low Level Book Need on the Ny Jets also got there…outright! The Oddsmaker’s Report has been the best new feature to TSP Live (IMHO) although, I am hoping even that will be topped by the genius of Hermes!
Hermes is a new software program integrated in TSP Live that will use all available public and private analytics to derive wagers. The limited testing I did with Hermes offline showed a lot of promise. The real test is always a live test with people. So, Hermes is now online in TSP Live. We’ll see how he does and what he brings to the content. Like anything new it could be an epic failure or a rousing success that people love (Oddsmaker’s Report, new TSP Live Analytics)…you never know until you try. So, we will try and see what it brings. We’ll see if Hermes blows his whole 100 unit bankroll this week…like a true degenerate!! LOL!
November subscriptions are now open and include some new options. Along with the usual calendar month subscriptions, there is also a subscription to carry you through the Super Bowl and right to March 1st along with an annual subscription! Also, don’t forget, if 30 days of content is too much of a commitment, 7 day packages for TSP Live Analytics are always available. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have daily access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, Sports Service Consensus and the new favorite…the Oddsmaker’s Report. On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one. Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +6.5% with three open positions! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. It is your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support!
Also, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There are three Telegram channels, with another one in the works. There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (3-5-1 for -2.5 units) – The Early Sharp Buy grabbed a win and now needs to get running. Let’s hope she can stack up a good run and get into the green for this season. For the week ahead, the largest early sharp buy is on Tennessee +1 over Kentucky. Sharp money picked against Kentucky last weekend and they are coming right back and doing it this weekend. We will see if the strategy pays off for them. Early Sharp Buy this week is Tennessee +1!
Early Algorithm Look (5-4 for +0.5 units) – The Early Algorithm Look was right in there to start the game, then San Jose St opened things up and blew away Wyoming. Let’s hope for a better result this week. For the week ahead, the best value from either the NFL or NCAAF side algorithms I primarily use is in NCAAF and selects Navy +20.5 over Notre Dame. Makes sense as Notre Dame is always an extremely lucky team versus what their stats would indicate their performance should be. I know the ND fans will take umbrage with my statement, but it’s nothing personal…just business! LOL
My Handicapping (6-3 +2.7 units) – Damn Cousins!!! Only thing worse is Dan Bailey…and ironically they were both from the same team. I wanted to see my record this week at 7-2, but here we are at 6-3 on the season. Even the 7 points of closing line value (CLV) on Minnesota +3 was not enough to overcome their pathetic play calling and execution. Anyway, let’s move on to this week and hopefully moving to a 7-3 record for 70% on the season! How do I plan to get winner #7? I am going with Kansas City -1 over Green Bay. I think this line is an extreme overreaction to last night’s result and to Green Bay’s last game. Last week on Thursday I felt the game was the battle of the overrated teams. Green Bay does not deserve their 7-1 record and Arizona didn’t deserve their 7-0 record (at the time) last week. So…to me…Green Bay beating a 7-0 Arizona team isn’t as great as it may seem. Although, Green Bay is getting credit as though it beat the best team in the NFL…which it did not. Kansas City played last night and looked awful on offense. However, just what the doctor ordered is the Green Bay defense. I don’t think this will be a blowout or anything, but I think KC will be able to exploit the Green Bay defense and do enough to get the win…a much needed high profile win at home. I thought about the OVER here, some sharp money hit it too, but it’s early and low volume. So, I will stick with my gut & my feel here and go with Kansas City -1 for win #7!!
My Two Cents – Here we are with a new month starting and with November brings NCAAB…a sport that will carry us all the way to April and MLB!! I know, I get ahead of myself. I can’t help it, I just love the business of sports gambling so much! Anyway, we have the first NCAAB games literally a week away. So, I figured I would take a few minutes and just go through some basic strategy thoughts. Football betting is easy to manage (I didn’t say betting is easy, just the management of football betting). Why? All the action is basically Saturday and Sunday. However, NCAAB is every day and usually a larger slate of games every day of the week than what we would see with NBA, NHL or any weekday football. So, it takes more discipline to manage NCAAB wagering. The volume of games also means that it is much easier to get over extended and blow up your bankroll before you even know what hit you. I bring this up a week before the season begins because it’s easier to plan how you will handle NCAAB when it isn’t yet here than next week when the games are upon us and you are filled with all the excitement of a new season.
Obviously, with the build up about strategy you probably think I am getting into some Holy Grail NCAAB betting strategy…nope. I can’t tell you the best way for you to bet NCAAB. What I want you to do…for yourself…is assess your bankroll and assess how much you plan to dedicate to each NCAAB selection you make. So, what’s your per unit wager amount and how many units is your bankroll? Once you know that, then you will have an idea of how much risk you can handle each day. In terms of risk, a bettor wagering 2-4 units per day should have enough bankroll to weather at least a 20-25 unit drawdown at some point in the season. Such a drawdown is not an “if” but a “when”. It’s not just my educated guess either. If you run the stats on sports betting win probabilities, house edge, etc. it will show the expected size of hot streaks and the potential depth of cold streaks. It is from this assessment that the 20-25 unit drawdown expectation is calculated. So, be aware and prepared for that possibility. Once you know how much risk you can handle each day then the next step is to decide what you will risk those units on.
In terms of content, I will have the NCAAB totals algorithm and I will have sharp coverage on Twitter. On top of that, the robots will be covering the action on Telegram (Primary & Secondary Angles) and I will probably share some of my personal bets from time to time as I have in football (including last night on Telegram). However, this season we have a new tool out there and it is all the TSP Live Analytics. The analytics include the Book Needs, which are new this year, and the big thing within the analytics is the TSP Live Radar and Real-time LJP. In previous seasons this type of analytics access and information was just not available or at your fingertips. The TSP Live Radar, as you know based on the volume of content on NCAAF Saturdays, has the potential to bring a lot more selection content for NCAAB. It is the exponential increase in betting content this NCAAB season compared to previous years where my concern comes in. It’s like a coke head who stumbles upon 4 kilos that dropped out of the back of the truck and you have no idea what to do with yourself.
So, people like when I share my strategy so let me discuss my thoughts. For me to dial down all this content I will likely concentrate early in the season on the NCAAB algorithm, LJP 2U’s and above along with any Primary/Secondary or Sharp Consensus angles. Sounds like a lot, but it will typically mean just 1-2 selections on most days. It limits my risk if sharp/value starts the season slow, while at the same time allowing me to pick up some serious profits if the season starts hot too. So, it’s not some grand or exciting strategy and likely not much of a surprise. However, just sharing my thoughts on the strategy that will work for me. If I were to be all the content out there, all the LJP Scores and TSP Live Radar angles, I would likely have 5-10+ wagers some days…and that’s too much for me to enjoy. Some like a lot of action…I do not. I like to be surgical, low volume, yet high percentage.
Again, what I do may not be the best idea for you. Some people probably shouldn’t bet at all…but we know they aren’t going to listen to that advice. However, if you are someone who has limited bankroll, the algorithms are probably the best content for you. Why? The algorithms typically (not guaranteed) return a decent profit AND the algorithms also don’t have a lot of volume each day…but do usually provide daily action (so you can get your fix). Just something to think about in your strategic planning.
I am always happy to answer any strategy or other questions I am able. If you would like to reach out, please use the Contact page here at the website versus Direct Message on Telegram or Twitter. Email allows me to manage lengthy responses as opposed to message on Telegram and Twitter which is better for short replies. Also, just a reminder that I usually only check my Twitter Direct Messages messages once a day…sometimes once every two days just due to volume. Any urgent paid content support should always be sent over email or Telegram and please allow up to 30 minutes for a response.
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays