The Sharp Plays Newsletter 2021 Week #11

Recap & Week Ahead –  The first weekend of November is in the books and it was a good one! The new Hermes program I discussed here last week that is now integrated into TSP Live Analytics ended with a 7-2-1 record in its first week for +5.6 units! Hopefully it is a sign of things to come. Hermes is still in a testing phase as it builds a dataset…but it is live and putting out plays on a daily basis…when it sees fit. The nice part with Hermes is he can bet anytime, whereas the bulk of the analytics aren’t confirmed as angles until close to post time. It should add a whole new dynamic to the content. I hope you enjoy! In terms of other news, Book Positions continue to roll going 1-0 this past weekend, KB Consensus angles went 5-0-1 and Secondary Angles were 2-0. Here’s to a great month of content ahead!

Speaking of content ahead…NCAAB begins today! Yes, TSP Live Analytics will be covering NCAAB and the Oddsmaker’s Report will provide NCAAB positions when they occur. I will be expanding the Oddsmaker’s Report NCAAB content as the season goes along. I need to first develop the content filters properly to protect secure information I am not allowed to have posted. Aside from TSP Live Analytics, the NCAAB totals algorithm will be back and I will also be covering any sharp or interesting action on Twitter. The Telegram robots will be pumping out selections all during the week. It was a solid NCAAB season last year (free & paid content) and I look forward to that again this season!

November subscriptions are rolling! Along with the usual calendar month subscriptions, there is also a subscription to carry you through the Super Bowl and right to March 1st along with an annual subscription! Also, don’t forget, if 30 days of content is too much of a commitment, 7 day packages for TSP Live Analytics are always available. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, Sports Service Consensus, everyone’s new favorite the Oddsmaker’s Report and just launching last week…Hermes (an automated bet advisor). On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one and the new Algorithm of the Day selection. Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.

Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +11.2% with after a strong return in a Zillow short position! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.

As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. It is your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support!

Also, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There are three Telegram channels, with another one in the works. There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.

Now let’s get into this week’s action…


Early Sharp Buys (4-5-1 for -1.5 units) –  The Early Sharp Buy has a nice little run going as it cashed again this past week with Tennessee +1! Where is the largest Early Sharp Buy this week? The biggest buy is hitting South Carolina -1 over Missouri. South Carolina is always one of those teams that I can’t get behind. Not for any reason other than the fact that they have screwed me a lot of times through the years. Still, what do I know…largest early sharp buy is South Carolina -1!


Early Algorithm Look (5-5 for -0.6 units) –  The Early Algorithm Look did not look good with Navy. Well, it looked good for three quarters, but the 17-0 fourth quarter by Notre Dame killed it. Let’s hope this week provides something better. The best value in the NCAAF side algorithm is Troy +7 over Louisiana. The algorithm calculates the line should be +4.5, so we are getting 2.5 points of value. Let’s hope Troy plays for the full four quarters unlike Navy.


My Handicapping (7-3 +2.7 units) –  I have gotten some tremendous CLV in this section the past two weeks. One of the weeks it did not matter with Minnesota. Last week it was on point as Kansas City covered the -1, but did not cover the post-Rodgers adjustment to -7. For this week, I am going to head to the NFL once again and I am going with New Orleans and will buy it to +3.5 over Tennessee. Tennessee is one of those teams that is getting WAAAAAY too much credit for recent successes. I don’t think they are a bad team, but that game against the Rams is a perfect example. The Titans had 194 yards to the Rams 347! It was those two early and quick Stafford INTs that were the difference maker. The previous week the Titans should have lost to the Colts, but they squeaked that one out too. You can keep going and going. Should have lost to the Bills, but a couple key plays and they get another. So, the Titans record makes them look great, but under the hood it doesn’t look so great to me. Granted the Saints are no treat. The Saints lost to Atlanta this past week, but they won in the yardage and 1st Downs. The Saints had good momentum in the end but it wasn’t enough. I like how the Saints defense matches up against the Titans. I also think the Saints will be ready for the offensive setup the Titans used against the Rams (the adjusted setup with no Henry). I think the Saints can definitely keep pace scoring with Tennessee. So, I can get +3 and buy it to +3.5…that’s a deal to me! I like the Saints outright, but I will go with the Saints +3.5 for the win!!


My Two Cents –  Let’s talk about NCAAB futures! There wasn’t a lot of sharp action to discuss, so consider this an extended “My Handicapping” this week. It will be short and sweet as I discuss a few futures positions I just entered today.

For the NCAA Championship, I REALLY like Michigan at +1200. When I say “REALLY” I don’t mean that I would put all my money on it. I mean I would bet it for 1 unit! LOL! I calculate this line should be around 7-1 to 8-1 and here I am able to get 12-1…come on…that’s too good of a deal for me to pass up.

I am not going to bet any other action for the NCAA Championship, but I do like a few conference championship odds. These are only for REGULAR SEASON and DO NOT take into account the conference tournaments. I went with 1 unit on Michigan +260 to win the Big 10. I went with 0.5 units on Alabama +450 to win the SEC and 0.5 units on Boise St +700 to win the Mountain West Conference.

Beyond those, I am going to take Michigan to make the Final Four at +350 for 0.5 units. Yes, that’s 2.5 units of risk tied to Michigan this year. I am good with that level of risk given it is basically spread from now to April and across three wagers with three possible outcomes. I am also going to take a wild shot and go with 0.5 units on Oregon +1000 to make the Final Four.

Last but not least, I am going with 0.5 units on Hunter Dickinson at +1100 to win the Wooden Award. Total for all of the above is 4.5 units.

Now let’s cash some tickets and good luck this NCAAB season!!!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays