Recap & Week Ahead – The second week of November continued the success from the first week. Paid content was solid as Hermes continues its test with flying colors, picking up another 3.0 units to go with the 5.6 units it earned in the first week. As I say, it’s not always going to be that easy, and there will inevitably be times where Hermes sucks something fierce…however, we will enjoy such successful weeks when they occur! Here’s to continued success with the testing. The Oddsmaker’s Report also delivered a strong weekend cashing it’s Book Position on Saturday EASY with Ohio State and then Sunday discussed two trap lines of Denver and NY Jets…which saw bettors sucked right into those traps as Philadelphia and Buffalo both covered easily!! On top of all that, the new Algorithm of the Day section in TSP Daily has been ON FIRE!! Cashed a nice +164 tennis winner on Monday and is in the green after an 0-5 start!
Success last week wasn’t limited to paid content! The algorithms have continued performing well with the NCAAB algorithm now 7-2 for the season! The NHL algorithms are profitable and the NBA algorithm is back to even as it exceeds 20 selections! Let’s hope those trends continue. Furthermore, I cashed my Superlock 10,000 unit Game of the Year on Telegram (FREE at t.me/tsplive) on San Francisco +120 for the 1st Quarter last night! Oh yeah and I cashed My Handicapping in this newsletter this weekend with New Orleans to move to 8-3 on the season! Let’s keep all of this rolling on forward!
Speaking of ROLLING…November subscriptions are rolling! Along with the usual calendar month subscriptions, there is now an annual subscription! Also, don’t forget, if 30 days of content is too much of a commitment, 7 day packages for TSP Live Analytics are always available. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, Sports Service Consensus, everyone’s new favorite the Oddsmaker’s Report and just launching this month is Hermes (an automated bet advisor). On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one and the new Algorithm of the Day selection which has been HOT. Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +14.4% after a strong return on BYND options! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscriptions, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. It is your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support!
Also, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There are three Telegram channels, with another one in the works. There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (4-6-1 for -2.6 units) – The Early Sharp Buy has had a hell of a bad run lately. It can definitely recover to get to a winning season, but she needs to get going this week. What is the largest early sharp buy this week? It is Rutgers +17.5 over Penn St. Penn St is one of those teams that often grinds out the wins and Rutgers has potential (nicest way to put it). So, I guess I could see Rutgers getting a cover here and the 17.5 being too much for Penn State’s style of play. Regardless of what I think, the largest Early Sharp Buy is Rutgers +17.5…and yes…sharp money has bought at 18 and the current 17.5.
Early Algorithm Look (5-6 for -1.6 units) – The Early Algorithm Look is on an 0-2 run. It was rolling along well, but now it’s negative. Just like the Early Sharp Buy section, the algorithm section NEEDS a win this week. The algorithm is showing the largest value on Liberty -5 over Louisiana! The algorithm calculates this price should be -9! So, we are getting 4 points of value at the current price. I hope that’s enough value to get us the win for this section and get it back on track!
My Handicapping (8-3 +4.7 units) – It wasn’t looking good until we got the TD at the end to get the backdoor cover and to keep the My Handicapping section rolling! Let’s hope this week is a little easier! For this week I am sticking with the NFL and going to go with Atlanta +7 over New England on Thursday night. I am going to buy this up to +7.5. I always buy on and off “3” in the NFL, but I am more selective of when I buy on a 7. Based on the style with these teams I think 7 has a higher chance of being a key number in this matchup…so I will take the buy! New England is one of those teams that has looked impressive, but that is leading to some severe overvaluation here. I think this price should be New England -4 and so to see 7 was a shock to me and too much value to pass up. Yes, Atlanta blows. Yes New England has looked good. However, the point spread is the great equalizer and I think this has the makings of an easy Atlanta cover. I wish I had some fancy reasoning, but this one is just numbers and that “7” is too big a number. So, I am going with Atlanta +7.5 and I will gladly look like a fool if the Falcons fail to cover.
My Two Cents – Let’s talk about sharp action and some misconceptions. Every day I am messaged by dozens of people as to whether sharp action exists on this game or that game. The easy and honest answer to any of the questions is YES!! It is actually rare to find a sports betting market that does not have some bit of sharp action. That’s awesome! We should have a ton of content if there is all this sharp action flying around each day…right?!?!? WRONG!!!! Not all sharp action is created equal.
First of all, it is important to realize that sharp money is in action for a lot of reasons. Sure one of the reasons could be that sharp bettors see value. Sharp action could also be betting to setup a middle, to buy out of a position, or even involved in an arbitrage situation. Not to mention that in a given day, 10% or less of all the sharp action in play could be considered “material” sharp action and about 20% of that action…or 2% of the whole card, will see the current price at or near the price that sharp action attacked. So, why would you care about the action that falls below the “material” line which is 90% of sharp action in a given day? Furthermore, why would you care about the 98% of sharp action that is neither material NOR carries a price anywhere near where sharp money attacked. It’s a fools errand to think you can follow sharp money, but do so at bad prices and come out ahead. Remember what I say all the time…the typical sharp bettor wins 53-54% of their games. The average public bettors wins 50% of their games. The difference between a solid sharp bettor and John Q Public is only 3-4 bets out of every 100. Which is why getting the best line is important because those points matter and are easily the difference in 2-4 games out of every 100 games you bet! You see it every day where a hook is the difference between a winner and a loser. Look at NBA totals and assess what would have happened if you played the line before it moved versus after it moved. Almost daily you will see the same OVER is a winner on the opening line, loser on the closing line…and that’s the key to betting sharp…getting VALUE. You can’t get value chasing steam at bad prices…by definition that’s not value!
So, it is for this reason that you will see lines flying all over the place but perhaps not see me report a single bit of sharp action nor see much in the way of sharp action on the TSP Live Analytics. While sharp action was active, the action is not active at current prices and thereby the analytics are not going to show that side as sharp…because at the current price IT IS NOT! Why would I walk you into a trap by reporting Tampa Bay -7 as sharp when really sharp money stopped betting at -5. Sure, Tampa is a sharp side…but at -5 which is useless to you right now at -7.
The infatuation with sharp action for most bettors started long ago when you were told that sharp action is the Holy Grail of sports betting. If you follow sharp action you will live like a king and make countless fortunes betting sports. Sorry to burst your bubble, that’s not how it works. First, if sharp action bet a game, usually by the time you look at that game the line has already moved away from any value. It’s an idea far too many people fail to grasp. I always get asked why Team B UNDER did not show up on TSP Live Radar when the line opened at 50 and is now 45…clearly that was sharp action. You are likely right BUT if sharp action stopped betting the UNDER at 48, why would the analytics show the UNDER as sharp right now at 45?? The current line is getting ZERO sharp action. Similarly, if sharp money took Team A +7 and the line is now Team A +4…why the hell would I report that action as sharp??? Not a single sharp bettor is on Team A +4. Even more so, why would you want to bet a team that moved 3 points off where sharp action stopped?? Just because there was sharp action at +6 or +7? OK, but the line is +4 now. If this still sounds like a good bet to you, there are a lot of books who would LOVE to have you as a customer.
Following sharp action is a tricky business. It’s not a blind follow. Not only is the material sharp action limited on a daily basis, but then making sure you are following at or very close to the price sharp action wagered is key. Successfully following sharp action requires assessment from a variety of angles, most of which are finding material sharp action and finding that material sharp action where the current price is very close to or at the price where the sharp action bought (and thereby saw value). The analytics I use publicly and privately aim to filter out all the noise and dial in to those angles seeing healthy sharp buying and which are at or very near the price with material sharp buying. If those two parameters are not met, it’s not even worth following…or spending my time or the robots time reporting!
The above is one of the reasons I enjoy the Oddsmaker’s Report for content. The report usually lays out key prices and sucker prices to help you assess the market. Knowing something is a sharp side is useless…knowing the price of the sharp money and being able to still bet that price is ESSENTIAL!!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays