The Sharp Plays Newsletter 2021 Week #13

Recap & Week Ahead –  Coming off one of the best weekends of the current football season we head into Thanksgiving week…one of the most fun week of the year! How can you beat football every day and a long weekend to boot!! LOL! I think the only week that beats this one is the stretch of bowls from Christmas through New Years…a lot of great memories! Let’s hope the momentum continues this week and right through the end of 2021! Given the current performance, and regardless of where things will go in December, it will be another winning year for 2021! The trend continues since I launched my content back in 2011 and The Sharp Plays was born…never a losing year, not even close. Thanks for being a part of the fun with me!

Hermes is in its third week of performance and as I type this Hermes currently sits a +9.9 units. Not too bad for a piece of software that I was concerned would never even be able to operate as I envisioned. Overall this past weekend Hermes split out on Saturday dropping 0.1 units, but then came back on Sunday with one play and cashed it…1.5 units on Minnesota +101. Talk about a sweat, but never doubt Cousins (LOL!!) as he ALWAYS cashes the ticket…so long as Dan Bailey isn’t involved (running 2020 football season joke). Beyond Hermes, I picked up 7.3 units on my exotics, and damn near everything within the content, from top to bottom cashed! Definitely concerns me for some regression this week, but I am just going to take it slow, play disciplined and look to continue grinding profits!

There’s only one weekend left in November, but you can still get in on the action! I expect to be opening December subscriptions on Monday the 29th. Along with the usual calendar month subscriptions, there is now an annual subscription! Monday, when December subscriptions open, I will be reopening the Super Bowl special which will carry you through to March 1st. Also, don’t forget if 30 days of content is too much of a commitment, 7 day packages for TSP Live Analytics are always available. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, Sports Service Consensus, everyone’s new favorite the Oddsmaker’s Report and just launching this month is Hermes (an automated bet advisor). On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one and the new Algorithm of the Day selection which has been HOT. Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.

Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +11.3% after a strong return on BYND options! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscriptions, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.

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Now let’s get into this week’s action…

Early Sharp Buys (4-7-1 for -3.7 units) –  The Early Sharp Buy can’t seem to get out of its own way. There seems to be something with these Early Buys lately. However, just keep that in mind if following or assessing the early buy. Where is the Early Sharp Buy this week? A decent buy has come in on Miami OH/Kent St OV65. These two have the ability to score and Kent St has a non-existent defense. So, I could see why this is getting a buy, but we’ll see if that buy pays off. I hope so!!

Early Algorithm Look (5-7 for -2.7 units) –  The Early Algorithm Look is on an 0-3 run…I think this is the only algorithm not performing lately. Let’s get it going again! What does the algorithm like this week? The NCAAF algorithm is showing the largest value on Hawaii +10 over Wyoming. I wish I could provide some color, but Hawaii has been very much hit or miss and when Wyoming was supposed to perform they did not. So, it is tough to say from a fundamental standpoint, but the algorithm says this line should be +7 and we are at +10…getting 3 points of value. Let’s see those Rainbows get this section back on track for a winning season!

My Handicapping (8-4 +3.6 units) –  The Falcons had 1000 opportunities to cash the ticket for me, but they blew every single one of them. Let’s hope that isn’t the case this week. For the week ahead I am going with Buffalo -5.5 over New Orleans. I try to watch a little of every game each weekend in the NFL. I happened to catch the Buffalo game early on and watched the Bills completely implode. The Colts did not win that game as much as the Bills just lost it. The Bills got down early and then Josh Allen tried to force the ball and force the plays. Just like with gambling, you can’t force anything…it leads to bad outcomes!! It led to more mistakes and really just took Buffalo (offense, defense and fans) out of the game early. We now enter this week and Buffalo needs a win. I am not a big fan of playing the “must win” angle, but I can’t pass up this one. The Bills need a big game and a big blowout win to get the ship back on course. The Bills have a fever and the answer isn’t more cowbell ( it is the Saints! New Orleans has nothing going for them on offense and their defense, which was something they planned that they would rely on…has not been stellar. Statistically the Bills beat New Orleans on offense and defense by wide margins. Unless Buffalo really has some sort of black cloud over them, I think they win this game by 17 to 20. I am on Buffalo -5.5 over New Orleans! GO BILLS!!

My Two Cents –  We are now at the halfway point of the football season. I check futures before the start of the season and I thought the halfway point was a good time to check the futures markets and see where there is some buying going on. Now that sharps see actual performance, how do they adjust?

First let’s start with division odds. The only wager seeing mid-season sharp action is Buffalo -135 to win the AFC East. It’s really one of the few divisions without a clear leader and thereby the price isn’t all juiced up on one team. I would consider the buy on Buffalo as MEDIUM.

While we are in the AFC, let’s look at the AFC Championship odds. This is a market seeing some action. The Titans at +750, Chargers at +1200 and even Cincinnati at +2500 are getting buys. The buy on Cincy is small, but the buy on the Titans is small/medium and the buy on the LA Chargers is right on the edge of what I would consider a large buy. The action has hit the Chargers the past two weeks. I took a little pizza action today on the Chargers when I saw this market.

Let’s go over to the NFC next. The NFC Championship market is pretty boring. We have only one team seeing any sort of material sharp buy and it is a medium buy on the LA Rams +425. After that, there’s very little going on.

There’s nothing in the NFC with regard to divisional action, so let’s go right to the Super Bowl now. For the Super Bowl there are three teams seeing what I would consider material sharp buys. You have a medium sharp buy on Buffalo +850, a medium sharp buy on Dallas +1000 and a small sharp buy on the LA Chargers +2500. Nice price on the Chargers…question is whether they have any real chance…but like I said, I did take some pizza on them for the Super Bowl and AFC Championship to have some action it.

Over in NCAAF, the action is a little more spread out with almost everyone in the Top 10 getting some sort of buy, so let’s concentrate on those getting a medium or better buy. When you narrow it down that way you only have a rather large buy over the last two weeks on Ohio St +300. Otherwise it’s all nibbling small action.

All in all, nothing overly exciting, but a few interesting tidbits. I hope the information above helps you with your futures planning for the conclusion of the 2021-22 NFL & NCAAF seasons!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays