The Sharp Plays Newsletter 2021 Week #14

Recap & Week Ahead –  Regression concerns for this past week due to a very strong November and coming off a very strong week ended up being spot on. Although really Saturday was the bad day. During the week the content was solid and Sunday it was flat or slightly negative. Still, if you heeded my warnings last Monday then you hopefully played it tight and minimized or eliminated any potential losses. Hopefully the regression is behind us after a very good Monday! We’ll see what the week ahead brings, but at least the TSP Newsletter here did not have any regression issues. Selections within the newsletter from last week ended up going 3-0!! Let’s hope for another sweep this week.

Hermes had his first losing week. He’s still +6.0 units for the month which is quite solid and above his goal of +3.0 units on average per month. So, he did his job and hopefully after three winning weeks in a row you realize he is not perfect. There is no Holy Grail of sports betting, but hopefully he will be the next best thing to it. I can’t wait to see what it does for the NCAAF Bowl games and how it adjusts as it learns along the way. Hermes will remain in testing mode through December, but that doesn’t mean I won’t root for him…because I know despite the advice…many will be following him!

December subscriptions are now UNDERWAY!! Along with the usual calendar month subscriptions to cover December, there is a subscription to take you through the Super Bowl and right to March 1st along with annual subscription options! Also, don’t forget if 30 days of content is too much of a commitment, 7 day packages for TSP Live Analytics are always available. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, everyone’s new favorite the Oddsmaker’s Report and now Hermes (an automated bet advisor). On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one and the new Algorithm of the Day selection which has been HOT! Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.

Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +13.3%! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscriptions, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.

As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. It is your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support!

Also, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There are three Telegram channels, with another one in the works. There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.

Now let’s get into this week’s action…


Early Sharp Buys (5-7-1 for -2.7 units) –  The Early Sharp Buy on Miami OH/Kent St OV65 gets the win and finally ends the losing streak. Let’s hope we can get a winning streak going now to finish the season! Where is the Early Sharp Buy this week? A buy is coming in on Houston +10.5 over Cincinnati. The Bearcats have been a popular public team and that likely led to some shading of the price. Sharp money loves to buy the shade and they definitely bought in on this one. Let’s see if it works out for them!


Early Algorithm Look (6-7 for -1.7 units) –  The Early Algorithm Look broke the 0-3 run with Hawaii +10 in an easy outright win. Let’s keep it going now. Where is the value for the week ahead? It is on California -4 over USC. The algorithm calculates the line on this one should be -6.5 and we are getting -4 for 2.5 points of value. Tough to pass it up and let’s hope the value pays us some dividends!


My Handicapping (9-4 +4.6 units) –  The Bills gave me an easy winner and move this section to 9-4. Let’s keep things rolling! For this week I am going with Chicago +8 over Arizona. Yes, this is an ugly as sin pick, but that’s why I love it. I don’t think the Bears will get the outright win, but this is a lot of points to lay on the road in ice cold Chicago for Arizona. Arizona has had issues even when Murray is in (and not 100%) and right now the position is still showing as undecided. Everyone just watched Chicago barely beat the awful Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. So, Chicago is understandably getting no respect. However, the point spread is the great equalizer and the book is not giving out free Arizona money. Before any QB is announced officially I am going to roll the dice and grab this +8. I think this price should be around 5.5, not over a TD. My Handicapping play this week is Chicago +8!


My Two Cents –  As we have reached the end of the NCAAF regular season, and now we approach the end of 2021, I wanted to use the space here this week to briefly (maybe) discuss my content plan moving forward. I always do this at the end of every year. It’s just a great time to look back on the year, see what worked, what did not, and make a plan for the year ahead. Recently, I have gotten more than a few messages asking if I am no longer covering sharp action on Twitter. I am, as I did yesterday with Washington, but it will likely be a lot less. Why? Sharp action is tough to cover because people don’t understand properly (despite my thousands of attempts) how it works. Which then just leads to headaches trying to explain to novice bettors that sharp action is not a blind follow and all the reasons why it is not the case. I used to post a lot of sharp action and then I would have folks who report they went 0-4 following it on a bad day. To which I say…why did you do that? Why would you blind follow sharp information for which you have no idea, nor did you take the time to assess why they might be betting. It became a bastardization of the content and I was tired of seeing it. The “known” bettor content has become the same way. I love reporting on wagers, but people just assume when I am reporting it that I am saying, “this guy bet this wager and you should too!!” I don’t even have words to describe. LOL!

For example, if I report tonight that Brooklyn is getting a sharp buy in the NBA and achieving an LJP 1U (which measures value and the level of sharp action) there will be people who simply blind follow that information based on nothing else. Which is not why such information is posted. The sharp information is posted to alert you to a dynamic in a game you might be betting, never to be a blind follow. Why? You don’t know why sharp action is betting and while it is good to know sharp action is on a game and have a metric like the LJP or TSP Live Radar to quantify that action, it does not provide the entire picture and thereby should not be blind followed. At a minimum it should be used as a filter for your own assessment and handicapping of a wager. People just don’t understand that dynamic. Many just feel if something is getting a sharp buy they should follow it regardless of the line or anything else. So, instead of trying to educate people each day on the ins and outs of sharp action, I rather provide the algorithms as Twitter content. At least in those situations I know why a bet is being made…the algorithm has located value. In situations involving sharp money, we can make assumptions, but we never truly know. Which can be an issue. Since moving to primarily algorithms, not only has the content performed well since MLB, but it has removed all the issues discussed above. While at the same time providing quality and winning content.

My plan for Telegram (t.me/tsplive) will continue to have the robots report Primary & Secondary Angles on weekdays when they occur. I have also started to post the occasional report of a personal bet I am making. On top of both of those items and general market commentary I will throw into the mix, I also plan to post weekday tidbits of content from TSP Live Analytics from time to time. So, a few days a week there will be a bit of information from TSP Live Analytics posted to the channel. I have not worked out an exact plan for this, but I am assessing now. The combination of Primary & Secondary Angles, my personal plays (usually covering Monday Night Football and later will cover NCAAB), my market commentary or notes, along with a tidbit or two during the week from TSP Live Analytics should provide a nice mix of content for everyone on the channel without it being overwhelming and blowing up your phones on a daily basis.

My content plan for Twitter will primarily concentrate on my algorithms, interesting novelty information like Biff or Mr. Poison and then any market commentary I might have for that day. Yes I will still cover “known” bettor action and sharp action, but at a much lower level than before. Is this because TSP Live Analytics has moved to a daily content product? No, actually that has nothing to do with it. It is simply for the reasons laid out above…less headache, less teaching needed. For those looking for sharp content, yes TSP Live Analytics will be there and only those followers well versed in my content should be signing up. Of course that’s not always the case, but people who eventually work their way up to TSP Live Analytics usually have a much better grasp on how to use the content properly.

As for TSP Live Analytics…it will continue doing what it does providing you access to the Sports Information Buffet on a daily basis. When it comes to TSP Live, I am always working to optimize the content, expand the analytics with helpful new tools (like the November addition of Hermes) and provide you the best value for your money. After all, it is the paid content support that allows everything else “The Sharp Plays” to operate. So, I want to ensure those who participate receive the best content possible and content which is always evolving to stay at the top of the game! Sports betting does not sit still and the oddsmaker’s are always evolving their tactics. What worked in 2018 to create huge profits would usually no longer work today. It’s just how quick the action and evolution of technology occurs. Don’t worry, I will always make sure we are at the forefront of innovation and sports betting content! Side not that came to mind, there was a GREAT model I used back in 1997 through about 2005 that was AWESOME for selecting sides and totals across multiple sports. Since then, it’s been 50% at best. The market caught on and it evolved to remove the inefficiency. It’s just the nature of the beast! So, you have to move faster.

So, not exactly a long thesis, but I hope this lays out what you can expect across the platforms in December, but primarily as we move into the new year of 2022! Can’t believe in a few months it will be two years since COVID first arrived and we were betting horses, Belarus soccer and table tennis! Oh the memories! Memories I will have until the day I die…remembering all of us sweating races at Fonner Park, cashing some big Pick 3’s and then laughing as we watched the live stream of Nicaraguan soccer from fields that appeared to be in people’s backyards. It was a wild time!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays