Recap & Week Ahead – A very solid weekend that saw the Oddsmaker’s Report continue to provide solid intel along with another winning Book Position on the LA Chargers easily outright. Strong content wasn’t limited to just the Oddsmaker’s Report as the first LJP 3U of the football season cashed the ticket as did two TSP Live Radar 74+ readings! It was a great way to start December and I look forward to it continuing for the rest of the month. I am looking forward to capping off a profitable 2021 with a nice cherry on top from December content!
Hermes bounced right back from its first losing week with a profitable weekend and is now +3.0 units in December. Hermes goal is an average monthly profit of 3 units. Why? At 3 units of profit, Hermes would provide the $100 per unit TSP Live Analytics subscriber with a 100% ROI on his subscription purchase! Anything beyond 3 units would be gravy!
Want to follow along with Hermes or the Oddsmaker’s Report in December? Should be a fun month with NCAAB, NBA, NHL and of course NFL & NCAA BOWLS!!!! December subscriptions are available at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Along with the usual calendar month subscriptions to cover December, there are annual subscription options! Also, don’t forget if 30 days of content is too much of a commitment, 7 day packages for TSP Live Analytics are always available. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, everyone’s new favorite the Oddsmaker’s Report and now Hermes (an automated bet advisor). On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one and the new Algorithm of the Day selection which has been HOT! Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +11.4%! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscriptions, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. It is your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support!
Also, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There are three Telegram channels, with another one in the works. There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (5-9-1 for -3.8 units) – The Early Sharp Buys have not performed well this season. It’s been a year where a lot of the early buys ended up not even being material plays on the TSP Live Radar by the time the weekend hit. Might be something to consider for next year and I can tweak this section into something else that perhaps doesn’t have these issues. For the week ahead, we no longer have NCAAF on Saturday’s and that’s where this section usually relied. So, let’s check NFL and the Early Sharp Buy for NFL is NY Jets +5.5. It’s an UGLY one but let’s see if the J-E-T-S…JETS, JETS, JETS can get this section a much needed win!
Early Algorithm Look (7-7 for -0.7 units) – The Early Algorithm Look is now on a 2-0 run thanks to winning again this past week with California -4. A win this week and it goes positive. Where is the algorithm looking? Again, this section usually relied on NCAAF, but now we make the switch to an NFL algorithm. The NFL algorithm with the best value takes us to Cleveland -2 over Baltimore. Cleveland has shown mathematical value week after week, but their value on the field has left something to be desired. Let’s hope this week is different! Algorithm is on Cleveland -2!
My Handicapping (9-5 +3.5 units) – The Bears actually moved the ball well and had a lot of chances for a cover, but Andy Dalton had FAR too many INTs in the game and that killed any chances. Where am I going this week with My Handicapping? I am going to the LA Rams +135 over Arizona (Pinnacle). Arizona is such an overrated joke. I took Chicago last week because I think Arizona has benefitted mostly from luck this season. Yes, all you Arizona fans, calm the fuck down. I get it, they have the best record in the league, but they also have done it through catching some good breaks. The LA Rams achieve 0.5 yards per play better than Arizona on offense and they are 0.1 yards per play better with their defense. The Rams have all the tools to absolutely destroy the Cardinals and I don’t think this game will be close. I could go on and on about the handicap, but I try to keep it short…especially since My Two Cents this week will be a little long. Bottom line, Rams are the better team and should be giving points not getting them. LA Rams OUTRIGHT +135!
My Two Cents – As we have now arrived at the end of the NCAAF regular season and are approaching the end of the year and then the end of the NFL regular season, I thought it would be a good time to discuss the analytics. The design of analytics and algorithms is a lot like bird hunting. You fire a number 2 shot, which contains 87 pellets, and hope at least one of those 87 pellets hits the mark and takes out your target. Analytics and algorithms are the same. You have 87 different ideas for analytics or algorithms. You draw them up, activate them and then hope that 1-2 hit their mark and provide you with quality content into the future.
Over the summer the above is exactly what I did. I had a variety of different ideas for analytics, I drew them up, programmed them and then took them live to see how they did. In the end, some of those analytical pellets missed their marks, while others NAILED the target. However, once you find analytics that hit the target, now you have to be prepared to evolve. Why? What worked last season often isn’t close to what works this season. I’ll give you an example…
On December 1st, 2019 the LJP Scores went live. It was a completely innovative system and worked amazingly right out of the gate. The LJP got phenomenal reviews, but I provided a warning in a late December 2019 issue of the TSP newsletter. It seems pretty prophetic right now…”The LJP has performed incredibly right out of the gate, it has gotten a lot of attention and people are already wagering far too aggressively on it due to the success. However, be aware, this is temporary. If we can get 1-2 years of good content out of the LJP before the betting markets change and adjust, it will be a tremendous success! If you are thinking the LJP will be providing your kids or grandkids with wagering success then you are unfortunately mistaken. Algorithms succeed because they find flaws in the betting markets and locate value. Eventually the markets remove that inefficiency. At which point the algorithm designer looks for the next system to exploit the next flaw. It is a perpetual game of cat and mouse. So, let’s enjoy the LJP success while it is here and for as long as it goes…then it will make way for a new tool that will carry us another 1-3 years before the market inefficiency is corrected…and the process begins yet again.” It is the circle of life for analytics and algorithms!
Where am I going with all this. Well, it is two fold. First, I threw all that algorithmic spaghetti against the wall this summer and over the football season we have witnessed what has worked and what has not. The Oddsmaker’s Report has been a tremendous success especially the Book Positions going 21-11 for 65.6% this football season. Hermes is new, but it has shown some great promise already in its short operational span. One thing I like about Hermes is he is picking in his selections. Some days, despite the content out there, there is not a single wager from the program. It’s really how strategic sharp betting works. If you are betting every day it is usually a sign you are not doing something correctly. Why? Simply because not every day is a good day to bet. The KB Consensus has performed well going 76-50 for 60.3% winners. The Sharp Consensus continues to perform going 23-17 for 57.5% winners. The TSP Live Radar has performed well on 74+ angles going 91-56 for 61.9% winners. Some great analytic tools provided solid content this season and since going live only a few months ago.
What didn’t perform well, the Primary and Secondary Angles this football season and really going back to April are flat. On April 1st the Primary & Secondary Angles combined were +103.5 units, today they are +107.6 units. They didn’t lose, but all that content and betting volume since April 1st has only returned 4.1 units. Again, that is better than 90% of gamblers did during the same period BUT the Primary & Secondary Angles are one bad stretch away from being negative over a 9 month period. The TSP Live Radar readings of 65-73 have been in a continual decline. The Low Level Book Needs have been a flop as readings from 50-69 are -26.9 units. The book made money on Low Level Needs thanks to vig, following as the player did not.
What does all this mean? First, I am very happy with the success of the analytics and content as a whole. It’s been a great year and the analytical evolution as the year has gone along has been tremendous. However, there is a decent amount of room for optimization and improvement based on the dataset built up from the analytics up to this point. Over the past week I have gone through an extended statistical analysis of the data. Using that data I will begin adjusting the analytics one by one moving forward. Those changes will begin to be implemented starting tomorrow and I will discuss the specifics in TSP Daily.
What will be changed? Something like Book Needs for example. There is no reason to monitor Book Needs with readings under 69. At best they are a coin toss, and don’t allow you to fade or follow. Yet covering them within the analytics requires time for grading and tracking and using computing power to monitor. It’s basically like having a robot monitor a coin toss. Couldn’t the robot do something else that would actually produce value? Therein lies the goal of the optimizations…concentrate and amplify what works by using the computing power from what doesn’t or has shown not to provide value. I am excited for the evolution and the process begins tomorrow in TSP Daily Briefing! Speaking of optimization, our friend at the end of the newsletter appears pretty optimized!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays