The Sharp Plays Newsletter 2021 Week #16

Recap & Week Ahead – The Oddsmaker’s Report continues to be the highlight. I don’t mean to belabor the point, but every week something new happens that shows why it’s been a great addition to the analytics! This weekend was a solid one as Book Positions went 2-0, the Oddsmaker’s Report provided known bettor coverage on Peña and discussed the volume of profit to be made if Nunes lost…which she did! It was a hell of a win (as high as +725) and something few expected. Even last night, the Oddsmaker’s Report covered the COVID issues and how the book felt about them. It allowed bettors to see the book saw no value change with the Higbee and Ramsey out. The report that went out yesterday covering MNF read as follows…

I am going to hold 3 and am overriding any bot moves for now. We all know if we go to 3.5 we are going to get hit with Rams money and will have to drop anyway. Unless necessary I am OK red on Arizona given money rating on Rams.

User: Book

Boss the reality is Ramsey doesn’t matter and Higbee is small. I say we hold 3 regardless of Zona $$. If you had balls we would move to 2.5.

User: Book

Saw this come across the past hour and given the messages I was getting on the topic I figured I would send it through. Gives you the book’s perspective.

Head trader is holding 3 because he knows sharps will slam Rams at +3.5 and drop it back down.

A separate trader at the book is saying the COVID issues are minor and it’s9d not even worth worrying that Ramsey and Higbee are out. obviously joking that DOT (Director of Trading) should move line to 2.5 and get all AZ money.

Bot moves = Algorithmic line updates by the book’s bots

Money rating = average player rating (players rated by various tiers of sharp to public bettor) that is currently betting

User: TSP

So, the Oddsmaker’s Report in that small message told you several things…

1) There is sharp money on Rams and the best you can expect to get for Rams is +3…so if you like Rams don’t try and wait for +3.5.

2) Loss of Ramsey and Higbee has little to no line value effect.

3) The book is overloaded with Arizona money from the public.

So, none of the above should be read as BET RAMS or LA RAMS ARE A STONE COLD LOCK. Instead, if you like the Rams, the report let you know where the value lies and the best price to expect. If you like Arizona, you may be cautioned due to sharp money on Rams or if you want to bet Arizona, you can know you could wait on the line since there is little chance of it going to -3.5. It’s a great tool if you take the time to digest the content in it.

December subscriptions have been rolling along with solid content and are poised to cap off another great year with a solid month. There’s still plenty of content left to come…we haven’t even gotten to the BOWLS!! Signup today at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Along with the usual calendar month subscriptions to cover December, there are annual subscription options! Don’t forget if 30 days of content is too much of a commitment, 7 day packages for TSP Live Analytics are always available. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, everyone’s new favorite the Oddsmaker’s Report and now Hermes (an automated bet advisor). On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one and the new Algorithm of the Day selection which has been HOT! Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.

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Now let’s get into this week’s action…

Early Sharp Buys (5-9-1 for -4.9 units) – The Early Sharp Buy lost on the Jets and is having a rough go this season in NCAAF and NFL. Let’s see what it can do this week. The Early Sharp Buy is on Seattle +6 over the LA Rams. Looks like sharp money feels that the Rams are overpriced after their high profile win last night. Sharp money hit Seattle hard at +7 and dropped it down to +6. There is also minor moneyline buying on Seattle after the drop. Seahawks drawing some attention, let’s see if they can cash the ticket!

Early Algorithm Look (7-7-1 for -0.7 units) – The Early Algorithm Look got the push on Cleveland -2. Let’s get that win this week! For the week ahead the NFL algorithm showing the most value is . The algorithm is showing solid value on LA Chargers +3 over KC. I am going to advise buying this to LA Chargers +3.5 (it’s automatic for me when “3” is involved). The algorithm says this game should be a PK, so once again we get three points of value. Let’s hope that value delivers!

My Handicapping (10-5 +4.9 units) – The Rams outright gave me a nice +1.4 units of profit. Let’s keep it rolling so this section can kill it this season. How about an undefeated run to finish out the 2021-22 football season. I was asked how many more weeks the newsletter will go. It always runs to the week of Christmas. I usually don’t cover the last week of the NFL season because it usually is such a mess. We do have one more week to the NFL season this year which means the final issue of the TSP Newsletter will be after Christmas this year on Tuesday, December 28th. Two weeks to go after this one. With that said, for the week ahead I am going to go with Indianapolis -2 over New England. The past weekend I targeted the LA Rams (got a win yesterday) because I felt Arizona was grossly overrated. Well, I do think the Colts are getting a bit much credit right now, but the credit New England is gettin is through the roof. New England is incredibly overrated and perhaps even more than Arizona. You can go through New England’s wins and see it isn’t so much the quality of New England’s play, but the lack of quality in their opponent’s play. I think this line should be Colts -4.5 and they are -2. So, I am not going to make it complicated. Vastly overrated versus slightly overrated. I’ll go with slightly overrated and take the Colts -2!

My Two Cents – I have to laugh sometimes when people with zero experience in the offshore betting industry tell me how no book would take wagers from a guy like Biff. I love it when someone says “What book would take $300K on a total…I can only get down $5,000 if I wanted.” Oh where do I begin with such a response?

First, when you go to your book and press “Bet Max” or another such command, the amount of money it shows as the “max wager” is simply what is known as a “window limit”. It’s the amount you can bet without approval from a trader, oddsmaker, bookie, or manager. However, if you would like to bet above that amount, unless you are dealing with a second rate bookmaker, the manager at the book would be happy to discuss an “accommodation” for you and your account. Accommodations can be as restrictive as only covering a single wager OR can be as liberal as covering all your future wagers across all sports. The parameters really depend on your request and the book’s assessment of your action. If you ask a book for a $250K limit on a game and they offer you $500K…they either aren’t too afraid of you OR they need action on that side of the wager.

A typical accommodation scenario is pretty simple. Today you could contact the manager at your favorite offshore sportsbook and tell them you would like $200K on New England this weekend…and I am sure they would be happy to discuss. You could even request that the book allow you a limit of $200K for any NFL games (side or total) for the rest of the season or an indefinite amount of time. Again, all of this is something the book could approve for you.

Do I have any personal experience from the player side with this sort of thing? Funny you should ask, why yes I do! I personally have had books provide me accommodations in a variety of scenarios…from large Vegas books to offshore outlets. A few weeks ago I posted a parlay ticket from 2008 where I won $100K. It was my first big hit and I kept the ticket for posterity. Well, after cashing that wager I went to the book and requested my limits be increased from $5K on NFL to $25K. The book denied my $25K request, but they did grant me a $10K limit on sides, totals and teasers and moved my parlay limit from $1,000 to $3,000 (max payout still $100K). I felt those were fair adjustments. It was double the window limits for straight bets and triple the window limits for parlays. Now I could log into this book and wager $10K on a teaser, side or total in the NFL. At the same time if you opened an account with the same book, and tried to bet max, you would have been limited to $5K on sides, totals, and teasers in the NFL with $1,000 on parlays. Why did the book provide me this accommodation? I just won a big parlay and they assumed I was a lucky degenerate (perhaps a spot-on assessment, LOL!). Eventually, I used those limits to take the book for a ride and eventually the book shut me down as a “Pro”. I was flattered…but to their credit they paid me every single dime of my balance and without any shenanigans!

Anyway, the point of all this is any legitimate sportsbook will entertain wagers above their window limits. When they do they will assess what level of sharp or square you are, what your previous action was, what your ROI has been, if there is any intel on you from partner books and what their exposure is on the market you are requesting an accommodation on (assuming single game versus blanket request). If they eye you up as a solid square, they will likely grant you whatever you request. If they decide you aren’t square, but they don’t see you as sharp either, then they will likely meet you somewhere in the middle between window limit and your request. If they cite you as sharp, either they will deny your request OR what a good book will do is to let you know that they won’t provide a blanket accommodation for an entire league or wager type BUT will be open to any requests for any amount you would like to put forward on a case by case basis. So, if you want $500K on New England and you are a sharp bettor they may deny it but allow you $100K. If you request $500K on Houston then they may accept it and tell you that you could have up to $1M. Why? Likely they need the action on that side (Houston) because they are in the “red” (over leveraged on other side of the market). It all depends. Whether you are sharp or square you can always ask your bookmaker for an above limit wager.

I know the above is perhaps a boring topic for “My Two Cents”, but I just had to vent on this one. Every week in which Biff wagers I will get the inevitable…”How’s that even possible?” or “My book only lets me bet $5,000”. It happened with Mr. Poison too…but you see why the book opens the doors to that guy. Anyway, anytime I hear those statements above I want to pull my hair out because it illustrates you are missing so much of the big picture in gambling and your extreme confidence backed by zero facts shows me why your book loves you. If you don’t know what that means, well that further confirms my point.

There are books offshore that each week are taking DOZENS…yes DOZENS of six figure wagers on sides and totals across a variety of sports…and they don’t even blink an eye. There are people winning and losing millions of dollars in the process. It’s why until you can peek behind the curtain of a book I do understand why most people are shocked. Some people in a weekend are betting more on a game than you might make in 10 years at your job. I don’t say that to be rude, just to emphasize the sheer enormity of the wagers in the global betting market every week. It truly is shocking!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays