Recap & Week Ahead – It was a very interesting Week #1! The newsletter content here performed GREAT!! Hopefully a sign of things to come this season. The Early Sharp Buy got the push with Minnesota, the Early Algorithm Look got the win with Arizona and My Handicapping came through with an easy winner on UCLA!!! Let’s do it again this week and grab the 3-0 sweep! In other content, the books actually had a tough go of it this past weekend as Low Level Needs went 0-6 on Saturday, but then bounced back 3-1 on Sunday with some juicy prices. The Primary Angle on Saturday lost with Ohio, but then two Secondary Angles cashed the past two days to bounce back. So, a very public Saturday, but then things have since returned back to the sharp/anti-public side of things. We’ll see if the books & sharps strike back this weekend…the ebb and flow of gambling. You always need to expect and be prepared to ride some waves! It’s not all cruising.
Hopefully this is a good week for the sharps as we now get to the big show…NFL football is back and begins this Thursday. NFL was the best performing football content last year, let’s see if it does it again in 2021! As long as Dan Bailey doesn’t screw it up (inside joke with followers from last season) we should be good! NCAAF last year performed great, but NFL just did better. It has been the case the past few years with NFL outperforming. Don’t forget we likely will have Mr. Poison back for NFL too…although, he is surprisingly decent in NFL. So, don’t put those “Fade The Poison” shirts on just yet. Mr. P has been profitable in the NFL 3 of the L5 years! It’s the only sport he’s had a profit in during that time. So, something to keep in mind when I report his wagers. The NFL’s return also brings with it the return of the 1st Quarter Algorithm…my favorite algorithm and a fan favorite as well! Here’s to a great season of NFL and thanks for spending some of it with me!
It’s going to be a busy week of action and I look forward to reporting it to you. Limits start to increase today, so those with TSP Live Analytics should begin to see some things pop on the various analytics. Tomorrow will see a lot more pop. The first week can be so tough to cover sharp buying because the buying back and forth has been going on since July! However, while NFL lines have been up for weeks, NCAAF lines have only opened at a major level just this past Sunday. So, this week you should see more content pop early in the week for NCAAF and then next week both NCAAF & NFL should be popping early in the week as sharps position themselves with less than 7 days between lines opening and the games themselves.
To get your ready for the action…TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is now pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. Content includes the Early Sharp Buy gauges, TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs table, KB Consensus, Sharp Consensus, Sports Service Consensus and the new favorite…the Oddsmaker’s Report. On top of DAILY analytics access and exclusive weekday content coverage…TSP Live subscribers also get exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
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Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (0-0-1 +0.0 units) – We got the push last week, but let’s go for the win this week. The leading sharp buy here on Tuesday is Iowa St -4 over Iowa. I don’t know much about these teams, or their prospects this season. However, regardless of my knowledge of them, sharp money seems very interested in the Cyclones!
Early Algorithm Look (1-0 +1.0 units) – Early Algorithm Look opens with a win, let’s see it continue with another one this week. The algorithm is showing the largest value this week on UAB +25 over Georgia. It sure is an ugly one. I could see this game getting out of hand quickly. So, while I will likely include this in a parlay, However, the algorithm feels perhaps the backdoor is wide open on this one and it likes the 25 points with the Blazers!
My Handicapping (1-0 +1.0 units) – My disclaimer will stand here all season…FYI, I SUCK as a handicapper. Despite my level of suckage as a handicapper, I did cash easy with UCLA. Where is my genius taking me this week? I am going to the NFL and I am taking Arizona +3.5 over Tennessee. I am buying the hook up the 3.5 as I always will do when the spread is 3 (buy up or buy down depending on chalk or dog). I think Tennessee has a good team, but I think they are very overrated. My NFL models shows Arizona as two points better than Tennessee on a neutral field. My model thereby makes this game a PK (pick’em) at Tennessee. Getting 3.5 points on a team that should be getting zero points is a nice bonus and put this game on the radar. I do like the Cardinals team. The Cards have always had a place in my heart since they were coached by Joe Bugel, yes this dates me. This season I think the Cardinals are a capable team and have the best offense that Murray will have had in his career thus far. Arizona has capable linebackers who should have some affect on Derrick Henry. I don’t think the Cardinals will dominate, but they should be able to move the ball well and it will be a question if they can get one or two key stops of the singular Titans offense. I am not concerned about Tennessee’s receiving corps because Tannehill still has to get them the ball. So, I think the Cardinals will surprise some people in this game and the 3.5 points will be awesome to have in my pocket…so I am taking it. Go CARDS!!!!
My Two Cents – Last week I talked about an important topic to me which is betting reality and all that having a sense of reality in gambling entails. For the week ahead, I will provide one more lesson to hopefully prepare you for the football season. Next week I can unload on a real rant here. I don’t know what it will be, I am sure there will be something that fires me up! Until then, after the discussion of betting reality last week, I wanted to discuss another strategy for sports gambling longevity…BE THE BOOK! No, I don’t mean actually become a bookmaker. I mean operate your personal sports wagering activities in the same way a sportsbook handles its sports wagering activities. Let me explain…
On Saturday, there were three games that qualified as Low Level Book Needs. Those games went 0-3 for the full game (0-6 for the 1st Half and Game). If you expand out to ANYTHING that popped up on the real-time Book Needs table (qualifying and non-qualifying) the Book Needs went 1-8 for the full game! WOW!! The sportsbooks took a beating from the public on the first real week of NCAAF! Imagine how you would feel going 1-8 on your bets for a given day. How does the book handle it? The managers and employees say “Wow, that was a rough one.” and then they all go home for the night, have dinner, go to bed and come in the next day. Why? Because the book has the financial stability to handle bad days like those…LOTS of them. The book doesn’t sweat the daily ups and downs because the book knows that their edge will eventually and ALWAYS put them ahead of the game…despite the rough days or weeks. Using a twist on an old saying…the gamblers have the watches…but the book has the time! The book understands that even though they are long term winners, they will have their fair share of awful days and weeks too. The book doesn’t see a 1-8 day and think…how the hell is that possible?!?! The book accepts that as all part of the game. The book isn’t questioning their future existence as a book after a bad day. The book operator isn’t crying and shaking in his bed after a day like Saturday. He has a proper bankroll to weather the most dramatic swings that can occur in the business…and still have a healthy reserve to boot! A day like Saturday for the book is simply treated as “one of those days” and then the book moves on to the next day. There’s no emotion…it’s all business and the book knows they will always have the edge over the player in the long run…even if the player takes it to the book from time to time.
So, I go back to where I started…be the book! What does that mean for you as an individual bettor? Betting for the book is emotionless. Emotion can screw up rational thinking and you DO NOT want emotion in your gambling. I have to turn my Twitter/Telegram notifications off on most days in the evening because I am inundated with celebratory and/or venting messages at individual plays and outcomes in individual games. If you do this, it’s all good…my notifications are off, but I will gladly reply when I am free. However, I turn my notifications off because I don’t want to sweat the games or the individual plays, and I don’t want to be sucked into sweating the action every minute through someone else’s sweating. LOL! I can appreciate you are, but don’t ruin my vibe of hanging out and relaxing…not caring about the individual ups and downs of the games. You know I love you, but if you wonder why I don’t reply at night or during the game, it’s usually because I don’t even know you messaged. I want to enjoy my evening out, not sweat the third at bat for the Yankees in the 1st Inning because I have the 1st 5 UNDER. My watching the at bat will not have an affect on the outcome. Of course I will check scores, but many games I only end up checking once or twice during the whole game. Maybe sweat the final few minutes of a close one. Of all the games this past Saturday, I only watched the second half of the UCLA game. Sometimes I forget to even check the score of an event, especially tennis or soccer until it is long over…then I remember, oh shit, didn’t I fade Serena today?? It’s very peaceful and removes all emotion from the game. With no emotion there is now far less impulsion to press or chase…two demons that will bring down the best of gamblers.
OK, so the book operates with zero emotion, a machine based on mathematics and nothing more. You know what else the book does? The book ensures it is always properly capitalized to handle the action it is taking in. As a bettor, you can do the same thing. Have a proper and separate bankroll for your wagering activities based on the action you are putting out. Your bankroll could be in a sportsbook account or it could be a separate savings or checking account where you keep your sports betting bankroll. The operator of the sportsbook doesn’t have just $3 in the bank and a wallet full of cash they use to pay their bills and cover your bets. The sportsbook has an account where they add money when they win and deduct money on the losing days to cover those bets. It’s a very basic setup, but so few gamblers operate their betting ventures in this way. Most gamblers use zero math to figure what their proper unit bet should be (I have a 100 unit bankroll). Most gamblers have a 5-10 unit bankroll set aside at best. Imagine if this weekend you went to MGM Sportsbook and learned that while they would be handling tens of millions in wagers they only had one million in the bank?? Yet this is EXACTLY how most gamblers operate. Sure, it will work for a few weeks, but eventually it won’t…and the end will be bad. Don’t operate like a degenerate…BE THE BOOK! By having a proper bankroll SET ASIDE you can ride the waves, up and down as you grind your way to long-term profits…JUST LIKE THE BOOK!
How else can you be the book? Don’t spend your profits the week you win them. When the book has a great week it does not hand out bonuses to management that Monday. No, it realizes that this was a great week…next week might not be so great and they might need to give those profits back the next week. Books do give bonuses…AT THE END OF THE YEAR! Don’t celebrate and burn all your profits this week. Instead, keep them in that sports betting operational account you setup. When the year is over, you should have a nice little stash of profits. Now sit back and give yourself a bonus. Oh and the sportsbooks don’t take all the profits and give them as bonuses to management. Nope! Sportsbooks take a portion of those annual profits and give them as bonuses. The rest and the bulk of the profits are used to expand the sportsbook’s operations. As a gambler you can do this too. You take some of your profits out for yourself and then for the upcoming year you recalculate your bankroll and your per unit wager. Then you begin operations in the new year as a bigger bettor! If you had a $10,000 bankroll and thereby were a $100 per unit bettor (I feel bankroll should be 100 units) and you finished the year at $20,000…take $4,000 for yourself and then divide $16,000 by 100. Now your per unit bet for the next year is $160 versus $100 in the previous year. It is in this way that you grow your bankroll. You move from a $100 bettor to $200, $300, etc.
In reality, the only difference between the professional bettor and the sportsbook is the sportsbook gets the benefit of the vig. Otherwise a professional bettor and a sportsbook are one in the same. The professional bettor achieves an edge over the sportsbook and makes their profit by grinding that edge over a long period of time. A sportsbook has an edge over the player and profits by grinding that edge over time. Again, one in the same!
I could literally go on for hours. However, one day while you are day dreaming at work, think of how the sportsbook handles their business. Think of the ins and outs of what makes a sportsbook work. Then try to think of how you can employ those same strategies to your side of the gambling business…as the gambler. Remember, the book is essentially a gambler just like you. What makes the book different is not the vig. The vig is just the house’s edge against the average gambler. Professional bettors have an edge against the house that negates vig. So, it isn’t vig that’s the difference. What makes the book such a strong gambling force is they are emotionless in their operation, have a proper bankroll to handle the swings, have an expectation that there will be good days and bad days, and have a long term approach to their operations. You too can be the book! If you choose to do it I think you will find yourself in a much better financial situation and with a lot less stress attached to your gambling this football season!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays