Recap & Week Ahead – A great week overall, the highlight of which was a +7.5 unit exotic performance this past weekend from TSP Live, which was on top of some excellent content delivered all week by the TSP Live Analytics. The analytics have added such an incredible dimension to the content. First and foremost…you no longer need me to see where the sharp money is going and what is happening in the markets. You can even peek behind the curtain at one offshore book thanks to the new Oddsmaker’s Report analytic! The fun is only just beginning! TSP Live starts at $35 for a 7 day package. Works out to $5 a day, or less than the cost of your Starbucks in the morning!
We looked forward to September for months because it would bring football with it. Now here we are at the doorstep of October with only two months of NCAAF regular season to go! It is always amazing how quickly it goes by. It was a profitable September for BOTH NFL & NCAAF sharp coverage. NFL performed better than NCAAF, but both were in the green. Now let’s keep it going in October!
Speaking of October, just opened a few minutes ago…October TSP Live Analytics subscriptions are available for signup! The upcoming weekend is of course October 3rd and 4th, so be ready for its arrival! TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have daily access to analytics such as: the Early Sharp Buys, TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs table, KB Consensus, Sharp Consensus, Sports Service Consensus and the new favorite…the Oddsmaker’s Report. On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning, which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I open one. Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +9.2%! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. It is your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid content), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support!
Also, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There are three Telegram channels, with another one in the works. There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (0-3-1 for -2.2 units) – Early Sharp Buy did not work out last week as Wisconsin never showed up for the game. Time to get the first win here and then get a little run going. For the week ahead, the Early Sharp Buy is Mississippi St +7 over Texas A&M. Buying has been very consistent from the open and even down to +7. Every NCAAF game is under the key market volume to trigger assessment by the LJP and TSP Live Radar, but I expect this one to pop up there tomorrow. We’ll see how strong it gets as the week goes along or if +7 is where she stops.
Early Algorithm Look (2-2 for -0.2 units) – The Early Algorithm Look got a win on Nebraska which also ended up being a Book Need. For the week ahead, the algorithm is going to NFL. It has found value on Washington -1.5 over Atlanta. The algorithm is showing Washington as a 4.5 point favorite. At the open it was some great value as Atlanta opened -1. However sharp money appears to agree with the algorithm assessment and this line is now Washington -1.5. It’s still 3 points of value according to the algorithm. So, Early Algorithm Look this week is Washington -1.5!
My Handicapping (4-0 +4.0 units) – Despite my now 4-0 start to the season, my disclaimer will stand here all season…FYI, I SUCK as a handicapper. Let’s keep the run going though! For the week ahead I am going with Denver -1 over Baltimore. I was back and forth on a few games and I settled here. I have been thoroughly unimpressed by Baltimore. Even in their win against KC, it wasn’t exactly a game they looked good in. On the other side we have Denver who has actually been a surprise this year. Granted they haven’t played the top teams, but they have done well given what they looked like at times last year. The Broncos seemed to put together a lot of parts this offseason to make for a competitive team. Despite the 3-0 start for the Broncos, I don’t think many have taken notice of really what’s under the hood in Denver. I see value under that hood. I have Denver here as a 3 point favorite in this game per my model. So, seeing two points of value. I expect this line to drop further, but for TSP Newsletter purposes I have no problem taking the -1. So, let’s get this section to 5-0 with a win by the Broncos -1!!
My Two Cents – I thought this week would be a ranting week for me, but alas, it is not! I am going to discuss in-play wagering and how I use sharp information to find value in-play. The topic came to mind Sunday night when I put it to use. Let me explain what I mean and what I target with my in-play strategy.
First, I am asked all the time whether sharp money bets in-play and whether I personally bet in-play. The answer is a resounding YES to both questions!!! I love in-play because it allows me to gain a TON of fresh parameters based on actual play. When betting pre-game, there is a lot you don’t know. You don’t know about last minute or in-game injuries, weather changes, or any other potential issues that would impact the game once underway…and thereby the outcome! With in-play wagering I can gain insight into those variables and make an even better assessment of the point spread compared to pregame wagering. Would you like an example of how I use sharp information for in-play wagering? We can look no further than Sunday night’s Green Bay/San Fran affair.
One of my favorite angles to wager on is the Sharp Consensus (Premium/Just Missed Premium Plays). Sunday we had the second such play of the football season, a Premium Play on San Francisco. Once the game started, the play was looking a little rough. Yes, believe it or not, sharp money does place bets that lose. I know, I was shocked too! LOL! However, I find that when sharp money loses, often the result is not that out of whack with the point spread. Meaning of course there are blowouts with sharp money on the wrong side of the blowout. Most games though are within 1 deviation of the point spread. As such, if I can get a sharp angle in-play at a substantially better line than pregame, I am intrigued! Substantial to me by the way is 5+ points better than the pregame price. In the case of San Francisco, I was able to get San Fran +8.5 at one point in-play. I calculated this as a tremendous value! San Fran was -3 pregame and so getting +8.5 (11.5 points of difference from pregame line) was very tempting to me. Sharp money liked San Fran at -3, now I can get +8.5! So, theoretically the +8.5 would be an even better value PROVIDED no key variables changed (I’ll discuss this in a minute). So, what is the checklist I go through to decide on whether to bet a losing pregame sharp angle in-play?
First, as I said above, am I getting a materially better price in-play than I could get pregame? If the answer is yes, I proceed.
Second, is the side I am interested in seeing the bad performance up to this point because of a key parameter change…key injury, weather change, other circumstance? If the answer is yes, I will usually stay away because the price difference from pre-game is likely justified due to the major change in variables. For example, Tampa Bay is -6.5 this week. If sharp money were on Tampa Bay pregame and the in-play line was Tampa Bay +4, I would be very interested. If Tom Brady was out of the game…I am no longer interested.
Third, is the side I am interested in wagering on losing because of bad luck or bad play? Is the other side lucky or good? If the answer is luck, I will proceed forward. If the answer is bad play, then I have to assess and will usually pass. With San Francisco, I liked how their defense was playing and the offense just looked tight. I expected once they settled in that the score would tighten up. So, San Fran is a good example of bad luck versus bad play. A good example of bad play versus bad luck was Philly last night. I could get a decent line on the Eagles in-play. However, I was thoroughly unimpressed with Philly’s defensive play and with Hurts and his management of the offense. Philly was not down early in yesterday’s game due to bad luck, but rather bad play combined with Dallas being on the top of their game. It was actually a Dallas mistake, not Philly quality play that even made the game close early. As such, I was not interested in an in-play wager on Philly like I was with San Fran.
So, at this point if I have proceeded through my entire three part checklist, and I am still a go to proceed, I place my 1 unit in-play wager. I don’t go wild and I usually don’t place multiple in-play wagers. Just 1 unit on the pregame sharp side. In the case of San Francisco it provided me with a -0.1 unit result on the Premium Play, versus -1.1 units. I could write for hours on what sort of line to accept, when to wager in-play, etc. but a lot of that stuff is feel and unique to each situation. It’s also tough to teach in a written article. Best way is simply through experiencing in-play wagering using a consistent strategy and then check your performance. At which point you can make tweaks based on your assessments. Despite much of in-play wagering being about feel, there is a core set of factors that govern my in-play wagering…and those are laid out above. I hope the above is helpful and useful in your in-play wagering. If I have time (and remember) I will discuss some in-play thoughts on the Telegram channel (t.me/tsplive) throughout the Sunday Night Football game this week. I will use the Telegram channel as a one sided live chat on about in-play wagering thoughts during the game. Hopefully it’ll be fun! Here’s to a great and profitable week of pregame and in-play wagering!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays