Recap & Week Ahead – Another solid week of content capped off by a great Monday! Cashed a tasty chunk of pizza units and my 1st Quarter bet on the Colts +3. Sharp money also reported on the Colts gets there for the full game and the MLB algorithm got a win on Boston and TB UNDER in the 1st Inning! The great Monday was preceded by a weekend that saw Primary Angles go 1-0-1, Secondary Angles go 1-0, TSP Live Radar 74+ angles go 4-2, TSP Live Radar 65+ angles go 16-12-1 overall, Early Sharp Buys go 4-3, Book Positions end a 5-0 run with a 1-2 weekend, the LJP Scores overall went 6-7-1 and I failed to cash a parlay this weekend…going 0-2. Also lost a teaser on Sunday. So, could always be better, but from the top down it was a good weekend. Parlays are now +18.1 units so far this season…despite the 0-2 weekend. Oh yeah…and the TSP Newsletter (yep this one here) went 2-1 on its selections for back to back 2-1 weekends! The losses both weekends were from My Handicapping. So, it is time to get back on the horse this week!
So far the first half of October has been excellent! Let’s finish the month even stronger. Can’t believe it will already be November next month…the football season half over!
October TSP Live Analytics subscriptions are still open for signup (prices decrease every few days based on how many days are left in the month). Also, 7 day packages are available for those not ready to commit to a month long package. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have daily access to analytics & content such as the Early Sharp Buys, TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, Sports Service Consensus and the new favorite…the Oddsmaker’s Report. On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one. Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +9.1%! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
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Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (2-3-1 for -1.3 units) – The Early Sharp Buy got another win thanks to Wisconsin finally coming through! Where is the sharp money going this week? The biggest Early Sharp Buy is Nebraska -3.5. I see this angle play out a lot. The angle being that a team looks like shit one week and then sharp money comes back hard on them the next week. Nebraska was a Book Position and failed despite multiple chances to finish that game and beat Michigan. Nebraska got the push or loss depending on when/if you bet it. Now here we are this week and sharp money is coming in strong on Nebraska as a road favorite. Usually not a position you want when a team was just demoralized in a loss at home. However, sharp money appears to feel this is a new week and Nebraska will roll. What intrigues me here is even at the current -3.5 the sharp money continues to buy. Usually once you get past -3 then the sharp money halts considerably. Obviously, money was stronger at -3, but the -3.5 is getting a decent bid too.
Early Algorithm Look (4-2 for +1.8 units) – The Early Algorithm Look got a win thanks to Akron! Akron was a sharp money killer in 2019, nice to finally cash a ticket on them. For the week ahead, the algorithm is showing the highest value as Indiana +4.5 over Michigan St. Michigan St has had some easy wins and Indiana definitely hasn’t had much luck. So, this is likely a situation of overvalued versus undervalued leading to value. The algorithm has Indiana as a +1 in this spot…giving the Hoosiers 3.5 points of value at the current +4.5. Let’s hope the value continues to pay dividends with an Indiana +4.5 WIN!! Sharp money starting to nibble on Indiana +4.5, let’s hope it’s a good thing.
My Handicapping (4-2 +1.8 units) – I told you I suck as a handicapper and that has shown the last two weeks. Let’s get back on track this week! For the week ahead I am going with Philadelphia +7 over Tampa. I am not sure how long this +7 will last as it is starting to get juiced. Never the less, I want it. I was impressed with the Philly come back this past week and hope they can carry that momentum forward. The big thing for me is almost the same issue as the Early Algorithm Look…I think this Tampa/Philly game on Thursday is setting up as overvalued versus undervalued. I am not ready to commit to a Philly outright win, but I think the Eagles at home and getting 7 is just too much to pass up. I hope Philly doesn’t let me down like they did the algorithm on Sunday…despite coming back to win the game. My model shows Philly as only +3.5 in this game, giving some hefty value to the Eagles. I hope that value pays off, breaks my 0-2 run in this section, and takes me to 5-2 on the season!
My Two Cents – I was asked yesterday how I choose the information I wager on and how I pick my spots. For me it really is all about feel and “feel” is something that is tough to describe. By nature “feel” is different with every game and with every bettor. I can’t give you my “feel” for the games. It’s something that is innate due to my experiences (good and bad) through the years and all the data my brain has reviewed and come across in my wagering and analysis.
I used to list my wagering strategy in TSP Daily. However, while I thought it would help people dial in the content, I didn’t feel right laying out my strategy in such a rigid way. The reason being that I don’t really wager based on a rigid plan each day. Sure, there is content I blind follow like Top Sharp Consensus angles (Premium/Just Missed Premium) as well as Primary and Secondary Angles. Book Positions are slowly also becoming a mainstay for my wagering…but not yet to the blind follow level. However, once you get past those limited blind follow situations, my wagering really is all about “feel”. How does that work?
Yesterday I liked the Colts personally. I thought they were underrated. I didn’t think they were a playoff contender, but I felt they weren’t getting the level of value they deserved. As for Baltimore, given their injuries and what I have watched in previous games…I thought they were being overvalued. It’s been a theme this week in the selections above and probably my primary handicapping method…overvalued versus undervalued creating value. In the end I bet the Colts for the game and I took them in the 1st Quarter (as discussed on Twitter). Within the analytics the Colts were nothing special. They were not a major angle. However, coming into Monday and for the reasons outlined, I liked the Colts. So, when I saw sharp money starting to creep in at the +7.5 on the TSP Live Radar, it was the analytic confirmation that perhaps what I felt about Colts being a value was confirmed. So, despite not being a major angle of any kind, but thanks to using the analytics as a filter (Colts were TSP Live Radar 65+), I moved ahead with my Colts action…and cashed the ticket!
The point of the above is if I laid out a rigid plan like I used to in TSP Daily, the Colts would not have fit that plan at all. So, then here I am telling you this is my plan each day and I already pulled an audible by taking the Colts. I get that people are looking for a simple set plan to follow every day to make things easy in your wagering…but nothing in gambling is ever easy. As the saying goes, if it were that easy…everyone would do it. Gambling is not easy and you do need to independently use your brain with the analytics (or any other information you choose to utilize) to assess wagers on a situation by situation basis. For me, I find I perform the best when I am not swayed first by the analytics. I first decide the wagers I like each week before looking into the analytics. Once I have a listing of games, then I go to the analytics and see where sharp money agrees with me and where it disagrees. Do I bet on games where sharp money disagrees? Sure, but I don’t do it a lot. I will be against sharp money in select situations or if I feel sharp money is on a side just to play a middle or arbitrage and not necessarily because they like the team/wager.
I wish I could sit here and say to follow me you would bet these three angles and you will wager EXACTLY as I am wagering for that day. However, each day for me is different. There could be three LJP 1U’s today and if there are no Secondary Angles…I might not be on any of them. Maybe they go 3-0 and that’s great, I just didn’t follow them because I didn’t like the wagers. The next day there may not be any LJP or other key angles and there I am placing three wagers. It just depends on a variety of factors beyond just an analytic. I sit there and look at how sharp action is performing in the sport, how the specific content is performing, how I feel about a wager, my current performance for the day/week/month, among many other things that come into the chaos that is my brain.
So, why not just tell you what I am betting? Unlike most handicappers or sports services, I take on your responsibility and stress when I advise people what to wager. Today I could go 0-5 and not think about it twice. However, if I tell people what I am betting and go 0-5 then it does add a ton of stress on me because I feel I caused other people to lose money. People think I am joking, but the WORST experience of my entire gambling career was the Robin Hood Club. Advising people what to bet and then going through what was really just a bad cold streak was awful. I didn’t sleep well, I was agitated and stressed every day…for what?? For a $25 purchase people made for a selection that carried a guarantee. I thought it would be a fun little bit of content to do the Robin Hood Selection with the Club and guarantee. It turned into hell. It was hell because I have had 15-20+ unit losing streaks in my gambling. Often usually one or two a year. It’s how the game is played. Unfortunately, one happened to happen at the time the Robin Hood Club was opening. However, when I do hit a bad cold streak, I don’t get emotional over them. I know they will happen and I know they will be over. During it sucks, but I know I just have to ride it out to the other side. I know my bankroll is setup to weather it…but your might not be and that’s where the issues arise. You are following me but not using the same parameters as I am when betting. I am betting based on a 100 unit bankroll, someone betting based on a 5-10 unit bankroll should not be doing the same things as I am.
Sure I do tell you my bets from time to time, but usually never more than one of my bets per day. Thereby if it is a bad day you went 0-1 following me. If you can’t handle 0-1, you should not be betting and I don’t feel bad about saying it. I do release my exotics because it’s usually 2-3 units max per week. Again, if you can’t handle 2-3 units lost over a week then you should not be betting…or at least you should reassess your bankroll/unit wager. So, to tell someone with a 10 unit bankroll what my 5-7 units worth of action is for a given day, well that’s way too much of a headache to deal with. I had people crying to me in the 1st Quarter of Oklahoma/Texas, Philly/Carolina and Cincinnati/Green Bay this past week. Yes, those games were 0-3 ten minutes into them. By the final whistle they were 2-0-1. If you are sweating the game that hard in the first quarter, no offense, but you should not be gambling. You are clearly wagering entirely too much if you are borderline suicidal less than 10 minutes into a 60 minute game.
Second, I like people to achieve success on their own and through their own hard work. The only way you will ever gain “feel” for yourself is by putting in time and effort to assess the games, markets, and situations. Sure I hope my content helps you in the journey, but you need to be the one to use the content with your own intelligence to come up with your wagers. You will be a much better gambler for the long term if you put in the time. It’s more work, but also much more fulfilling and it ensures that when I perhaps am no longer doing this that you will be just fine in your gambling. The common response to this is people say they work a lot and don’t have the time to handicap. OK, but my handicapping doesn’t take hours and hours each week. I print out the lines for NCAAF and NFL for the week and while I am sitting with my family and watching some TV in the evening, I go through every game and just based on my gut feeling circle the wagers I like. It takes less than 15 minutes. At the end I usually have 10 or so wagers. I then go through and see which wagers the public is heavy on…I don’t want those sides because the value is already diminished. At this time it leaves me about 5-6 wagers I like. Now I take that list and check the analytics daily as the week goes along to see where there is agreement or disagreement. By the time the weekend hits this process took me less than 2 hours over the course of 5 days (so roughly 25 minutes a day). In the end I have a list of 3-6 wagers that I liked at the beginning of the week, that the public wasn’t hammering and the analytics show me sharp agreement with. Those become my wagers along with any exotics and any Primary, Secondary or Sharp Consensus angles (and maybe a Book Position). Sometimes there is overlap where a play I liked is also a Secondary Angle. So, it’s even less bankroll risk necessary to play.
So, as you can see, that’s why it’s tough for me to say, “This is how I wager…” and provide a set plan you can follow each and every day. It’s all about feel and feel is something I can’t teach you. The only way to gain the skill of “feel” is simply through experience. You now know what I blind follow, but beyond that, I would say to go through the games this week, circle what you like, filter through the analytics, and then assess the performance even if you don’t wager on everything. Doing it this way will allow you to gain feel. “Feel” is the human algorithm. A gut feeling is simply your subconscious mind making an assessment that is too advanced and based on too much data for your conscious mind to understand or perform. It’s why gut feelings usually perform better than rational assessment. Without getting too deep, your subconscious mind is like an algorithm being run on a supercomputer and your conscious mind is like an Excel spreadsheet based algorithm…both of them could be good, but one is definitely better than the other. So, build up your internal supercomputer by taking the time to assess the games, situations, analytics and results for yourself. All these experiences and data sets are then logged deep in the supercomputer even if you don’t realize they are there. However, the data will be there and your subconscious will recall and use it for assessment at the speed of light to come up with a gut feeling on a betting situation you are assessing. Then, and you won’t even know how, you will start to have a feeling when you look at all the data each week as a whole. You will look at a game, check the analytics and any other information on the game that you have in front of you. Then within seconds you’ll say “Philly +7 over Tampa…it just feels right.” Sounds silly perhaps, but trust me, it’s what makes a veteran QB better than a rookie. The rookie might be in better shape and have more talent, but the veteran’s “feel” gives him the edge. His feel was gained by hits he took, reads he made correctly/incorrectly, mistakes he made through the years, etc. The rookie doesn’t have that data to work with. Give yourself the data and the experience to build your betting mind and have your own feel on the action.
I will share my thoughts from time to time like I have done recently on Telegram or Twitter for wagers I like. Hopefully these tidbits will help you to expand your “feel” for sports betting and thereby become a better bettor!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays