The Sharp Plays Newsletter 2021 Week #9

Recap & Week Ahead –  Yep, last week was the first rough one of this football season. On my wagers I lost 5.1 units. It all came down to San Fran…a win there would have made it a -3 unit weekend, a loss and well…it was a -5.1 unit weekend. Either way, not too painful for the worst weekend of the season…and we live to fight another week!

So far, despite last weekend, it has been a great football season. I can’t believe this is the last week of October and we really just have FOUR more weekends of NCAAF regular season action after this week. Wild to think we are at that point. The good part is that even though we lose NCAAF, we gain another of my favorite sports…NCAAB…the bowls are a lot of fun too!! Should be a great finish to 2021..with 2022 here before we know it!

Thanks to everyone for their feedback regarding the subscriptions. I will continue with the calendar month subscriptions, given some good reasons cited with renewal issues. I will also be offering a package for November through February 28th to cover you through the entire football season, including the Super Bowl, and right to March 1st. I was going to do a subscription just through the Super Bowl, but then that gets into the sticky setup of people getting out of that subscription in the middle of February (on the 14th) and then having to get a monthly February subscription to continue on for the rest of February. Now the Super Bowl Special package will run from when you signup through February 28th. I will also be launching annual subscription options at that time as well. I have been asked about annual subscriptions since 2019…and now they will be a reality. November subscriptions will open on Friday. At that time you will have the usual 7 day subscription options, the standard monthly subscription options for the calendar month of November along with the new annual subscription options and the Super Bowl package. So, there should be something for everyone!

October TSP Live Analytics subscriptions are still open for the final weekend of the month. Don’t forget, if 30 days of content is too much of a commitment, 7 day packages for TSP Live Analytics are always available. TSP Live Analytics is a sports betting platform that is pumping out content on a DAILY basis for subscribers. TSP Live Analytics members have daily access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time LJP Scores, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, Sports Service Consensus and the new favorite…the Oddsmaker’s Report. On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live Analytics members also get access to TSP Live’s Daily Briefing every morning…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers) when I have one. Subscribers also receive exclusive weekend access to any Book Needs, Primary & Secondary Angles, along with any Sharp Consensus (Premium & Just Missed Premium Plays). It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.

Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in it’s second year, another profitable one, returning a portfolio ROI of +7.7%! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.

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Now let’s get into this week’s action…

Early Sharp Buys (2-5-1 for -3.5 units) –  The Early Sharp Buy can’t get out of its own way, but still time for it to turn around and have a winning season! The wager seeing the greatest early sharp buy is UTEP +10.5 over Florida Atlantic. Wish I could provide some color here, but I am not too familiar with either team. As soon as this one opened though it got pushed down to +10.5 and the money continues even at 10.5. It’s not as strong of course as the higher numbers, but it’s there. Let’s see what the Miners can do!

Early Algorithm Look (5-3 for +1.7 units) –  The Early Algorithm Look is having a good go of it this season. Let’s see it continue this week. Where is the algorithm seeing the largest value? It is on Wyoming +3 over San Jose St. The model shows this spread should be Wyoming -1.5…which gives me 4.5 points of value at the +3. So, before anyone gets wind of this great value, and before it drops below +3, I am grabbing it!

My Handicapping (6-2 +3.8 units) –  Simply rolling along this season! A couple more wins and I can clinch a winning season for this section! I am looking for a winner this week and going with Minnesota +3 (-120) to do it. I did have to buy it up from +2.5. Yes, it’s an ugly dog and Dallas is the high flyer, but those are the situations I live for in betting…undervalued versus overvalued. Yes, Cousins is a joke and Dallas has looked almost machine like lately…and therein is where the overvalue and undervalue are created on this one. True, the Vikings always seem to find a way to screw things up, despite having a good offense and a good defense each year. It is the untimely Cousins mistake that sends the best of Vikings bets down the tubes. Oh yeah and Dan Bailey!!! However, with the Vikings healthy now, and with this game going for Sunday Night Football…I think they put in a big effort. I watched Dallas almost lose to a weak Patriots team…that damn OT touchdown! Anyway, if the Patriots and a green QB could play Dallas hard, then I think the Vikings at home will be able to hang. I’ll take the Vikings +3!

My Two Cents –  The MLB algorithms are currently +15.5 units on the season, and that doesn’t include counting the 1st Inning v2 fade (I know some don’t play it)…which would only increase the +15.5 unit performance. However, to get to that solid 15.5 unit return, do you realize that at one point the algorithms were down over -12 units on the season (not counting v2 fade)?? Yes, that means that since that time, the MLB algorithms had a +27.5 unit swing during the same season (again, not counting the v2 fade…which boosts it even more)!! Cool…so what’s the point?

People come into a new season or strategy with a perception that if they are using a +EV strategy that they will start a season at +0.0 units and slowly grind profits from start to finish. A nice and easy path to profitability with little pain and few big swings along the way. LOL! Here’s a little secret…gambling RARELY works out that way. Sometimes you get off to a big run and find yourself +15 units, then you lose it all and then some to be at -5 units overall, then you hit another run to get you back to +13 units and then you finish with a flat run grinding down 2 units…to end the season with a nice +11 units. For perspective…anything positive for a season is automatically better than what 80-85% of bettors achieved for that same season. I love when people comment…you “only” won 5 units on this or that angle for the season. Yes, sounds pathetic until you realize the person making the comment and 85% of the other bettors out there actually performed worse than +5 units for that same season…because they all lost money. Well, except anyone involved in sports gambling on Twitter…they all win money. LOL! I digress!

Anyway, earning a +11 unit return over the course of a season sounds simple and based on where you ended people just assume it was a simple grind to profit! Start at 0 and ended at +11 units…NICE! However, those who actually wagered on that +EV angle were on more of a high speed rollercoaster than a casual walk up the hill. How many people reading this would have given up on the angle when it gave back 20 units to go from +15 units to -5 units at one point??? It’s OK, you aren’t alone…there would be a lot of people quitting with you. You know why? When the MLB algorithms were down over -12 units I can’t tell you how many trolls and haters were reveling in it and how many followers were whining about the performance. Then I held the algorithms back in June as that’s a month they struggle (something I am working to assess this offseason). I then brought the algorithms back in July and BINGO…she got rolling and hasn’t stopped since then. In the end and regardless of the World Series results it will be another very profitable MLB season for the algorithms. If they have no further angles, you will have won +15.5 units this season! Awesome!! However, was the journey to those profits that casual walk in the park, or world’s fastest and highest rollercoaster with a lot of whiplash, crying and vomit along the way? Yeah it was the latter and plenty of bettors were crying asking to get off the ride.

Rarely is anything in gambling a straight line from zero to profit. It’s usually a line with sharp and fast moves up and down along the way…often crossing the zero line a few times before the ride is over. Hell, I had one football season back in 2016 where I lost in September, in October, in November and then had an EPIC December to finish with a profit similar to the previous seasons at +41 units. Thank you NCAA bowls 2016!!! The sharp content was killing games, sweeping sides and totals of some bowls and performing well in NFL too. It was awesome and if I gave up I would have ended with a loss that season and never been there for the profit. Sure nobody thinks gambling can go that way with three straight losing months and then a MASSIVE profit month…but that’s how it goes sometimes. Once again, look at the MLB algorithms. If I told you back in May they would finish with 15 units of profit…you would have said I was an idiot…yet here we are! Point being, gambling takes work, discipline and it takes fortitude to weather all the runs. It also requires you to understand that betting profits are achieved over the long term and can come in wild ways…rarely is it a 45 degree angle on the profit chart from “0” to profit. Weathering the good runs is easy, anyone can handle that part. Managing your emotions in the bad runs and having the fortitude to see your plan through is what separates the Pro’s from the Joe’s!

One last example? Who remembers the cold run just this year from end of March to mid-April?? It was an AWFUL run, but in the end and barring losing every bit of content between now and the end of the year…2021 will end another profitable year of content…and it won’t be close. There were lots of winning weeks, lots of losing weeks…winning months and losing months. In the end, if you rode the waves, there were some incredible highs and some frustrating lows. However, if you didn’t chicken out and you had a good bankroll management plan to weather the runs…you should be sitting on a decent profit for your blood, sweat and tears at this point in 2021.

Here’s another twist to this topic. Not only do you rarely go from 0 to profit in a straight line, but sometimes you do it in a way you least expected. Back in 2009, my ENTIRE profit for the football season was derived from exotics (parlays and teasers). Yes, somehow on a season I killed it with exotics, I also lost decently on straight bets. It was something like -18 units on straight bets and +51 units on exotics (I remember the exotic profits exactly, but straights were down 15-20 or so…call it -18 units). So, there’s a football season that if you look at the final number…a +33 unit profit…that’s awesome!! However, it was quite an unconventional way to get there.

I bring this up because this past week was the first rough week of the football season. Gamblers and their goldfish memory will always forget the good times and just remember the most immediate bad run. Forgetting that we almost made it to November without a clunker of a weekend. However, don’t take your eye off the prize just because of one bad weekend or even two or three. You never know how the gambling profits will come each season. I start Week 0 of the football season knowing that when I watch the final seconds tick down during the Super Bowl that I will likely be sitting on some nice gambling profits from the football season. I don’t know how much, but I am confident they will be there and I also know that it will likely have been a hell of a ride to get to that point. So, I just plan to go in, stay the course, ride the waves, bet smart and keep emotion out of things. Don’t go into a season with an expectation of how you will achieve a profit. Profit is RARELY achieved in an easy and orderly fashion…or according to a plan you set. As soon as you think you know how it will go…Lady Luck will stick her finger all the way up your ass and show you who’s in charge! Everyone thinks they can be a professional bettor and ride the waves…however when you are out in the deep water…few gamblers have the toughness and mental fortitude to make it back to shore. Most give up. Swim you big baby and stop whining! Who the hell told you this business was easy and profits come in a straight line?!? I was once a class A degenerate myself when I started out gambling. If I can make it to shore…so can you!! Not to mention, if you are one of the few souls to make it back to shore, there is a pretty good prize waiting for you!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  😉

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays