Recap & Week Ahead – I have been discussing my concern for NCAAF regression the past few weeks. Two weeks ago we finally saw a warning sign as the Saturday NCAAF snuck out a small profit. Prior to that time, NCAAF was simply printing money this season. We then hit this past weekend and that’s where the wall was hit. Regression arrived in NCAAF on Saturday to the tune of a 1-4 record for TSP Live. It was ugly! Sunday wasn’t very exciting in TSP Live for straight bets as the Just Missed Premium Play won, but the Other Sharp Consensus Play lost. TSP Live went 2-5 on major angles for -3.5 units BUT what bailed it all out was the first TSP Live parlay of the season (Tennessee -6, Dallas +14, and TB/NO UN51) which paid 6.4 units. I did advise a 1 unit hedge on the OVER (only time I will advise bets is when those following are in a ZERO LOSS situation). The parlay ended up cashing and collecting 6.4 units, minus the 1.1 unit hedge and the 3.5 unit loss on straight bets, TSP Live ended up with a 1.8 unit profit for the weekend (now +37.0 units since April)! More on the parlay later in the newsletter. Not to be left out… TSP Daily (https://tsp.live/tsp-daily) cashed two more teasers (+2.0 units) this week, but did lose a parlay (-1 unit). All in all, a weekend that started bad, finished beautifully and turned a profit!
We are now entering November and as I discussed last year at this time, seasonally November is a VERY GOOD month for the public. Which usually means it is a rough month for sharp money! Doesn’t mean sharp money will lose, it squeezed out a profit last November, but it definitely underperforms. We should therefore be aware of this possibility when betting in November.
Speaking of sharp action, one thing I have to assess is the “Other Sharp Consensus” category for Sharp Consensus content. It’s still profitable by a nice margin, but it has struggled this year. As I discussed last year when I posted the angle the first time, it didn’t make sense that “Other Sharp Consensus” plays at the time were 10-2. Premium Plays mean three or more of the Top 10 sharp bettors in action are choosing a side, with nobody in the Top 10 on the other side. Just Missed Premium Plays mean three or more of the Top 10 are on a side with no more than one of the Top 10 on the other side. Other Sharp Consensus Plays mean three or more of the Top 10 are choosing one side, but there can be two or more on the other side. As long as one side has three or more, and that side out numbers the other side, it qualifies as Other Sharp Consensus. With this in mind, I did not think an “Other Sharp Consensus” play with a 5-3 count on one side versus the other would perform profitably, but it did last year… so I covered it. However, the regression this year is making me wonder if last year was an apparition and my theory last year was correct. So, just something to keep in mind when following these angles.
The new Telegram system continues to work out beautifully! I am so excited for all that Telegram can offer. There is a lot in the works, and if you like my content and are serious about betting, I would strongly advise you to check it out! If you are interested in signing up for the Telegram channels (it’s free), please visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/ for all the details.
The paid sports content for this weekend’s TSP Live session (Nov 14th and 15th) will be real-time LJP Scores for every NCAAF & NFL game on Saturday and Sunday, plus any major LJP and/or Sharp Consensus angles! I do not guarantee how many angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live sessions there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live sessions there may only be 1 or 2 angles. Sharp Consensus records this season… Premium Plays 2-0, Just Missed Premium Plays 3-2 and Other Sharp Consensus at 3-4. As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (8-1 YTD) – Just ROLLING!!! The Early Sharp Buy cashed again last week with Iowa -7 in a blowout! What’s on the agenda this week as the Early Sharp Buy? The Early Sharp Buy is Michigan St +7.5 over Indiana. I could see the dog here being shaded some bonus points. You have Indiana who is ranked 10th and is 3-0, just dominating Michigan last week. On the other side you have Michigan State (unranked and 1-2) who was just dominated by Iowa (last week’s ESB). It would lend itself to being a game that would see value on the dog as the oddsmakers give shade to Indiana… expecting the public to line up on the Hoosiers. The sharp money then gladly buys the ugly dog and puts the shade on their side. We’ll see how it goes, but hopefully the ESB will move to 9-1 on the season! GO SPARTANS!!
Early Algorithm Look (3-6 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look is an an 0-3 run and had last week’s game PPD. Let’s see what we can do this week. For this week The Early Algorithm Look is on TCU +3.5 over West Virginia. The algorithm calculates this line as West Virginia -2, so to get 1.5 points on TCU and over the key number of +3, doesn’t look like a bad play to make. Let’s hope TCU can finally break the 0-3 slide that has occurred in this section!
My Handicapping (5-5 YTD) – YEAH BABY!!!!! BILLS MAFIA!!!!!! Thank you to the Bills for bringing me a win this past weekend and bringing the My Handicapping section back to .500!!! WOOHOO!!! Now I have to move into the positive this week! Oh the pressure is on, who shall I take? I am going with Thursday Night Football and the Colts +2 over Tennessee. I watched the Titans play on Sunday this past week. While I am very happy they covered the spread against Chicago, they really should not have won the game. Early on the Bears did very little… and Tennessee did even less. Tennessee was lucky to get a fumble returned for a TD, because in the end that was the difference maker. Now of course Rivers is good for a turnover or two, but I think this Colts team is solid. The Colts defense may not be what everyone bills them as, but it is a good unit. The Colts offense can definitely move the ball too. The loss to Baltimore is helping to keep the price reasonable here. I would much rather +3, but that would be a total gift. I have this game at a PK, even in Tennessee, and you are giving me two points. I will grab those two points and hopefully take it to the bank with the Colts! Don’t forget, this is a Thursday game! GO COLTS!!!!
My Two Cents – I don’t want to be your gambling mommy or daddy! I do not want to be in the business of advising you what or how to bet. I have watched that movie play out too many times. You tell someone you like Denver +56 over Tampa. Denver loses by 57 and what happens? The gambler who placed the bet takes ownership of the fact that they made the decision to place that bet, right?!?! Of course not, their first response is, that dickhead The Sharp Plays told me that Denver was a lock, a guarantee, couldn’t lose… and now I lost my money. Screw him, what a piece of shit moron he is!!!!! LOL! Yeah, that’s more like how it usually goes. So, I never want to be involved in your wagering decisions. I put the information out, what you do with it is up to you! I very much like the motto of #FFoFO… Fade, Follow or Fuck Off. It really sums up the goal of what I do.
Trolls and haters always make me laugh when they will comment on a post and say they are fading or that they make a fortune fading my content. At which point I curl up into a ball on the floor and cry. LOL! What are we in 3rd grade?!?! I don’t give a shit how you use the content. Honestly, if you can make money fading the content, God love ya, I am happy that you are using the content to profit. It’s not a hit to my ego that you fade. I’ll keep reporting too, because I love covering the market action. It’s for that reason that I operate The Sharp Plays.
Funny little story attached to my love of the betting market action. Recently, my wife and I were watching Larry Fitzgerald in a game and talking about what a class and quality player he has been. I then immediately commented on how he is easily my favorite player since all the way back to when he played for Pitt. My wife then asked why. I reminded her of a trip we took to Las Vegas in November 2003. I said that there was huge sharp money slamming the markets on Pitt the Saturday (Nov 8th, 2003 against VTech) we were in LV. I explained how I was watching the World Sports Exchange markets and some of the best sharp players were maxing out on Pitt. It didn’t make sense and so I absolutely threw total regard for bankroll management out the window (yes it happens to me from time to time… more so in my earlier years) and I SLAMMED Pitt at the MGM Grand. I then retreated to the room and watched the game with my wife. Larry made some HUGE plays, including getting a TD and Pitt cashed the ticket! It was awesome and it is a memory burned in my head. My wife responded to my recollection with reminding me that I remember this sort of stuff, but I don’t remember what she said 20 minutes ago. LOL! Can’t argue with her!
Anyway, the point of the story is I love this stuff. I am here to provide you information and will gladly track that information so you can assess it for yourself and make any applicable betting decisions you choose. What and how much you bet is up to you, I WANT NO INVOLVEMENT. I am a flat bettor (I bet 1 unit per wager). I have 100 unit bankroll and aside from rare occasions, every wager I place is 1 unit. It’s a method that has worked for me since the 90’s. Are there better methods, yes, but I am a creature of habit and my method is simple… so I won’t be changing it. But that’s me and your bankroll system should be designed by and for you!
I will grade wagers for tracking purposes based on MY method of wagering. Especially since my method isn’t some wacky calculation… it’s 1 unit on any wager. It’s nice and standard across all wagers so, for me at least, it makes performance assessment of the content very easy. Once again, what you do is up to you! Where am I going with all of this? On Sunday someone took issue with the fact I was grading the TSP Live parlay at 1 unit (a parlay which WON and paid 6.4 units, minus 1.1 units for a hedge). Their premise was how can I expect people to bet a parlay for the same that they bet on a Premium Play. My answer is really simple… because I do. Everything (except rollovers due to wagering limits) is 1 unit for me… teasers, parlays, futures, straight bets, props, etc. Why are parlays 1 unit? Because every year I profit from parlays. I don’t look at them as some wacky longshot sucker bet that burns money. You have all witnessed the performance on parlays through the years, it is not some magic. I use parlays as a strategic wager and they work VERY WELL for me. In 2019, the profit on parlays posted publicly and in paid content was +38.2 units. If you don’t have good bankroll management then yes, parlays are tough. Often I will go 0-8 on parlays and then finally hit one which makes up for the 8 straight losses. It’s the nature of the beast. I accept it and my bankroll management method easily weathers the runs. I am not bankrupt nor suicidal when I get down 8 units on parlays. If you are, perhaps your bankroll management strategy could use some tweaking.
Oh and this is not to mention that if the parlay lost, the same people would be bitching if I didn’t grade it at 1 unit. There are people out there who bet 10 units on a Premium Play, 7 units on a Just Missed Premium Play and 1 unit on parlays and such. If that’s your method, God love you, but that’s not for me. Nor should I be held to grading based on how you individually bet. Shit, if I was held to the bankroll management method of some of you, The Sharp Plays content could go 20-5, but be -48,791 units this month. Point is, my wagering and grading is simple… but I do understand if you do something else. So, if you don’t like my grading, do your own grading… but don’t expect me to be held to your standard. I am the one who operates The Sharp Plays and it operates in my vision and using my methods. I’ll be the first to say my methods may not be right for you… but I won’t be grading based on what works for you.
Summing it all up, I am not here to tell you what or how to bet, but I will be grading all content for performance purposes based on how I wager. I don’t advise you to bet like me, that’s up to you to figure out. I wish you all the luck in your wagering methods!
All this talk about grading brings me to another topic I want to briefly touch upon. I will be expanding on this topic in a separate article later this week. When I started The Sharp Plays there were a ton of trolls who said my information wasn’t real, I make it up, these are just my plays (as though I know how to handicap Nippon Professional Baseball, Nicaraguan Soccer, Belarus Premier League, Darts, etc.). Anyway, the trolls said I should post my records. I gladly obliged knowing that overall the records would blow away the performance of anyone else out there. In flexing on the performance of the content, I started grading everything. I did it to show I wasn’t scared of transparency like so many others out there. I know the quality of the content. Visit any sports service, handicapper website or Twitter cappers and see if any of them come close to the level of tracking I do. If you do, they will be very, very few and very, very far between. Anyway, one of the issues in grading everything is you can also have too much grading. Eventually, you are grading so many things that stuff just becomes confusing and convoluted. I don’t think that’s where the tracking is right now, but it could get there. So, with the onset of Telegram and all that it brings to content expansion, I really need a plan to cover the content there and any potential tracking. Not to mention, sometimes information is just information. So, I will be developing this plan over the next week and will have an article out breaking it all down. Hope you enjoy it!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays