Recap & Week Ahead – It was a very strong weekend for sharp action and reporting. TSP Live went 4-4 for -0.7 units, but did cash a “Just Missed Premium Play. However, TSP Live really was the only blemish, albeit small, on the weekend’s performance! The performance does harken back to why I say, the paid content is not intended to be a stand alone purchase, but used in conjunction with the free content. Oftentimes the paid content outperforms, sometimes the free content outperforms. Over the long term, they both outperform. So, any strategy should involve the usage of both. However, over any given week, month, or even season… anything can happen! More on the “long-term” part of things in a little bit. Also, thanks to the Telegram robots, the Late Sharp Money reports are back, as is a new category called “Group/Syndicate Buys”. When a group buy hits the markets, based on set variables the robots look for within the markets at two global books, the action is reported as a feature of TSP Live (when in session) & Telegram (when TSP Live is not in session).
I keep saying it each week, but each week it only performs stronger and stronger… and it is only a month in. However, Telegram alerts are now 28-8 across all categories (not even counting the two trades on the Telegram financial channel that were both profitable)!! Of course the Telegram content won’t be hitting 78% over the long term, but it is an inkling that the content will be very profitable over the long term! As a reminder… TELEGRAM IS FREE!!! If you are interested in signing up for the Telegram channels (again it’s free and easy), please visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/ for all the details.
It is a busy week ahead with NCAABB starting on Wednesday and then the Thanksgiving weekend of football which starts on Thursday. I am not sure what to expect out of NCAABB early in the season given all the changes, BUT I am excited to see it in action. Given it is Thanksgiving week, TSP Live’s coverage is extended (see details below). It also means that this Friday is Black Friday! So, in celebration of the success of TSP Live and the expansion to covering the financial markets, I wanted to offer two Black Friday deals for December content. The first Black Friday deal is the “All-Inclusive December” subscription which gives you access to TSP Live, TSP Daily Briefing and the Financial Market Analytics subscription in December (basically all paid content). The other Black Friday deal is “December TSP Live” which provides access to TSP Live and the TSP Daily Briefing in December (for those who don’t trade the financial markets). Both deals end on Sunday. On Monday 11/30, prices will revert to their normal rates. Thanks for your support!
TSP Live is now +37.2 units since it launched back on April 4th. The TSP Live content this week runs from Thursday through Sunday and will include real-time LJP Scores for every game on the NCAAF and NFL schedule (Thursday thru Sunday), Sharp Consensus, various LJP angles, any NCAABB Sharp Consensus from Thursday through Sunday AND even some new TSP Live alerts like Late Sharp Buys and Group/Syndicate Buy alerts!! I do not guarantee how many major angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live weekends there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live weekends there may only be 1 or 2 angles the whole weekend. Setting a quota only incentivizes forcing reports and updates that aren’t there. I let the angles develop organically… or not. As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (8-2 YTD) – The Early Sharp Buy on UCLA was a WINNER, but I won’t grade it as such because as discussed on Twitter, it was negated by a sharp buy on Oregon prior to the DTR news breaking. Thankfully, any of you who bet it early, it did not matter! UCLA gets the easy cover! Let’s find one this week that doesn’t get negated and that is an easy winner! For the week ahead, the Early Sharp Buy is Kent St +7.5 over Buffalo on Saturday. Buffalo has been getting a lot of attention, and with attention comes point spread shading by the oddsmakers. So, not a surprise that Buffalo may be getting too much credit, and thereby too much shade. We know what sharp money loves to do… buy shade! So far they are doing it this week with Kent St +7.5!
Early Algorithm Look (3-8 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look is on an 0-5 run. I got excited when sharp money hit FIU late in the week and moved it to an LJP 2U at kickoff. They looked great in the first half and then completely shit the bed in the second half. No other way to put it. This is the week I need to get a winner if I have any chance with this section pulling a winning record for the season. So, I am going to change it up a little and will look to the NFL. The NFL has been a little more consistent for the algorithm so let’s see if it can pull a winner and get on a run! For the week ahead, the Early Algorithm Look is showing the highest value as the NY Jets +7 over Miami. No, this is not my handicapping, just purely calculated value. Yes the Jets suck, but we found out this week that Miami is not all they are cracked up to be. So we have the Dolphins on B2B road games and again in cold weather. The algorithm is looking at the variables and saying this number is too high, because it should be Jets +5.5. So, an extra 1.5 points of value in the Jets. J-E-T-S… Jets, Jets, Jets!
My Handicapping (7-5 YTD) – The train will not stop! I am now 7-5 on the season and need two more wins to lock up at least a .500 record for the season. A nice winner this past weekend on Denver as the Dolphins wheels came off. For this week, who am I targeting as a LOCK (sarcasm)???? You know I LOVE to play with fire so I am going with Philadelphia +5.5 over Seattle! I know, I am a moron! I am getting sucked into this vortex again. Sharp money has been pounding the Eagles almost every week since last November. You know how I know that? First, because I see it and report it every week. Second, because last November 24th, 2019 (yes today… except last year it was a Sunday), there was a Robin Hood Selection on the Eagles at home to Seattle. It was the Robin Hood Selection loss which led to the worst ever Robin Hood Club failure and what I classify as my worst failure in any wagering endeavor at The Sharp Plays… a 9 year time period. Those fucking Eagles! I am not from Philly and I am not an Eagles fan, but ever since 11/24/2019, it’s like a curse that the Eagles have been a perpetual sharp buy each week… so I cover them. It’s like Lady Luck, that bitch, just wants to keep reminding me… remember the Eagles you dickhead?!?!? More often than not, each week the sharp buying has come in, I have watched the Eagles fail to cover. However, like the 2016 and 2017 Browns, the Eagles keep getting sharp money despite the outcomes. My reason for taking Philly this week has nothing to do with sharp money.
Last year in the epic Robin Hood Selection loss on 11/24/19, which lead to something that took 15 years off my life, the Eagles actually played a good game. It is why the loss was so frustrating and then the subsequent RHC, good Lord! Anyway, in the game the Eagles had 23 first downs to 14 for Seattle. The Eagles had 344 yards to Seattle’s 348. The problem, Philly gave up 5 turnovers to Seattle’s 2. In the end the Seahawks won 17-9. So why do I like Philly this year? Seattle is not the same team they were last year. Seattle has declined markedly under the hood. On the field the Seahawks get lucky as their stats show. The Seattle defense is not nearly the unit we knew them as, and the offense while strong, has slipped some. At the same, the Eagles still blow. However the Eagles blow factor has been pretty consistent. I don’t think they are any worse this year than they were last year. So, I have the Eagles with +5.5, in a game they lost by 8 last year. Seattle has declined, so I don’t expect them to be 8 points better than the Eagles in 2020. I could see this as a surprising 3-4 point game either way. Whereby the dopey Eagles might lose again, but I think the +5.5 will be valuable when the clock clicks to 0:00. Follow this one at your own risk, but to my detriment, I cannot help myself but take Philly +5.5 this week. Fly Eagles Fly… you sons of bitches!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AVENGE ME!!!!!
My Two Cents – I am very excited to discuss the following topic this week. It is a topic which goes along with many of the “My Two Cents” for this season. The topic is long-term performance and the unveiling of The Sharp Plays Records Archive covering content since July 2011 through to today! So, let’s get into it…
First, here’s the link TheSharpPlays.com/records-archive (it is also linked on the “Records” page which can be found on the website menu). I sat down over the past few days and put together The Sharp Plays Performance Archive which covers all content I have put out since 2011. I went through my spreadsheets for each year since I began putting out content and compiled the totals. I am still going to be reviewing and auditing my sheets over the next few weeks, taking a year’s spreadsheet at a time when I have some free time. However, I am confident the current table is quite accurate. I just want to take some time and review because I did put it all together rather quickly so I could unveil it with this newsletter. So, I don’t want anything missed, good or bad. I expect to “certify” the table before the end of the year.
I won’t belabor the following point because I have discussed it constantly this season, however given I am posting these long-term records I hope you notice a few things. In the mix of these past 9 years, there have been good days/weeks/months/seasons and there have been bad days/weeks/months/seasons. However, through it all, looking at the records, the long term results ain’t too shabby!
So often after a bad day of free or paid content I have to hold some hands, give some hugs and tell people it will be OK. I know it sounds silly, but it happens every week. It’s OK and I get it, gambling can be torture and everyone needs a hug. But, it’s also why if you do contact me, while we hold each other, I will point to long term versus short term. Oh and if you think I am talking about you, it’s unlikely. I get 80-100 DMs per Saturday and Sunday… and actually this weekend nobody needed holding. LOL!
In the short term, anything can happen. Over the short term I lost 19.2 units in the Robin Hood Club (a 2.5 month period). During that same period though, looking back over my spreadsheets from November 2019 through January 2020, every other bit of content performed to the tune of +27.6 units (in December 2019 I launched the LJP). So, even with the RHC, the content still pulled out a net of +8.4 units. My point is simply that anything can happen when you zoom in on one segment or one short time frame. However, what rectifies bad runs is simply time. If you have a bad run, but you have a +EV method of wagering, eventually the +EV will show through and erase the bad. At which point you will be back to collecting profits. It might take several weeks or months, but you just have to be patient. Gambling, by design, is about instant gratification. Gambling thereby appeals to the junkie nature in people (myself included) and therefore patience is usually non-existent for most gamblers. If you can be patient though, and let nature work it’s course, you can come out ahead in your betting!
Negative periods and bad runs are unavoidable. If you are gambling every day, you are full of shit if you have not had a dozen or more bad runs, lasting days to weeks, over just the past year, let alone your betting career. I saw a boatload as I looked through the various spreadsheets this past week. It’s just not mathematically possible to avoid. A perfect recent example is sharp soccer. A couple weeks ago sharp soccer got on a bad run. You would have thought the world ended and everyone forgot about the +65 units the past year that sharp soccer returned. LOL, yep… the run of sharp soccer for the past 9 years was officially over earlier this month. Oh wait, no it wasn’t! It was a bad patch and the loss has been fully recovered already! See what I mean. Nothing will be perfect or painless in betting. Sportsbooks don’t give away free money. However, I am sure there were plenty of people that quit betting soccer in the cold run, and were then not anywhere to be found when it got all the losses back!
So, I know some of this is redundant and a repetitive theme this season. However, I felt now that the records archive has a place on the website and it launches today, that it was a good idea to bring it up again. You can never have the idea of short term versus long term beaten into your head enough as a gambler. Eventually… hopefully… you will get it. Patience young grasshopper, patience! Losing runs are inevitable, accept them as part of the game and it will be easier to move past them in a disciplined/non-emotional manner and on to the next day! Oh, and there are no locks because locks mean you can control the other “L” word… LUCK, and only God controls luck!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays