Recap & Week Ahead – It was another very good week! The free content from Twitter and Telegram performed well and then the paid content with TSP Live went 4-0 on qualifying angles. Success was pretty much spread across all sports covered. Even the public got in on the action with some good days last week. It wasn’t just the sharps getting paid. As I sit here and recap another week, it is wild to me that there are only five weeks left of the NFL season. It sure does fly by every year! December is probably my favorite month of the year. The combination of the holidays, relaxing in front of the tree and on down the list we go. Not to mention I have so many good memories of watching bowl games in the afternoon on a Tuesday! LOL! Life doesn’t get any better! So, it’s nice to have December upon us!
Each week is getting more and more uncertain in terms of what games we will see and what issues will arise. The good news is that we do have a lot of sports operating now to keep us busy. Even if one or two were to drop, we should still be able to resort to other major sports. No more need for Russian Table Tennis! The uncertainty each week however makes putting together the newsletter difficult. You never know what will happen from now to the next day. So, I have avoided wasting my time trying to fully preview the week ahead. I am now of the mindset, let’s see what we get on Saturday and talk about it then! I am just hoping we can get NFL and NCAAF to the finish line. It would suck not to have that scene I described in the opening paragraph happen in 2020!
Just a reminder that Telegram continues to work out beautifully and it is just in its infancy. Did I mention that TELEGRAM IS FREE!?! If you are interested in signing up for the Telegram channels (again it’s free and easy), please visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/ for all the details.
Also, the FMA is open for December signup! So, if you are interested in joining the Financial Market Analytics content, you can signup and review the details at TSP.Live/fma. Since launching in May 2020, the FMA Watch List has performed as follows…
Again, if you are interested in the FMA content, please visit TSP.Live/fma.
TSP Live is now +41.2 units since it launched back on April 4th, after cashing a 4-0 holiday weekend on qualifying angles. For the week ahead, the TSP Live content this week will operate on Saturday & Sunday and cover Sharp Consensus in NFL, NCAAF & NCAAB, as well any qualifying LJP Score angles and new TSP Live alerts like Late Sharp Buys and Group/Syndicate Buy alerts!! I will not have real-time LJP Score this week as I am working a new content alert. More on this in the My Two Cents section this week. I do not guarantee how many major angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live weekends there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live weekends there may only be 1 or 2 angles the whole weekend. Setting a quota only incentivizes forcing reports and updates that aren’t there. I let the angles develop organically… or not. As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (8-3 YTD) – The Early Sharp Buy did not show up with Kent St +7.5 this past week. WOW! It was a beating and Buffalo simply ran all over on Saturday. Let’s hope for better things this week. Looking at the board, the wager getting the largest sharp buy at this point in the week is Coastal Carolina -6.5 over Liberty. Interesting angle, appears to be fading the Liberty love that has followed them the past few weeks. Although, Coastal is no slouch as they too are undefeated ATS this season. Should be a good battle and in the battle the sharps want Coastal at -6.5!
*** DUE TO CANCELLATION, THE UPDATED EARLY SHARP BUY IS PENN ST -11 OVER RUTGERS. GOOD LUCK!! ***
Early Algorithm Look (3-9 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look is now on an 0-6 run. The faders are just printing money with this one. Right now, the best I can hope for with this section is an 8-9 record. Let’s hope the algorithm cleared its memory and has a plan to attack. The Early Algorithm Look for this week, showing the highest value, is Rice +23.5 over Marshall. The algorithm calculates the spread for this game at Rice +20.0, which provides 3.5 points of value on Rice. Can the ice finally melt on the Early Algorithm Look? I hope so! Let’s go Rice +23.5!
My Handicapping (7-6 YTD) – I got a bad line! When I selected Philly here in the newsletter last Tuesday it was at +5.5. Obviously, the line moved to +6 and +6.5 in the days that followed. Perhaps one final Robin Hood Club curse given the significance of the debacle that the Eagles created last year on 11/24 against these same Seahawks. Regardless, I had a bad number and so it’s a loss for this section. I have to get back on the winning train this week. I want to be able to clinch a winning record for this section before the NFL season is over. So, who am I going with this week?
I am taking Minnesota -9.5 over Jacksonville. The Jaguars have actually done well despite their issues. The Jags covered three of their last four games! The good run has earned the Jags some attention with the oddsmakers. However, all good things come to an end. Often when a teams has player uncertainty, the opponent can’t fully game plan because they don’t know what they are up against. Thereby the team with the uncertainty actually has an edge despite their issues. I think this uncertainty has helped Jacksonville and resulted in ATS success. However, Minnesota this week gets the benefit of analyzing video on every quarterback option that the Jaguars have. I don’t see the Jaguars having the element of surprise this week as they have in recent weeks. I love the Vikings defense and expect them to shutdown Jacksonville. If that happens, then the game becomes a battle of the Jaguars defense and the Minnesota offense. If you watched Baker Mayfield pick apart the Jags defense, you know that this part of the game (Jags defense versus Minnesota offense) could setup a blowout. I think the Jags recent ATS luck runs out and Minnesota deals them a crushing defeat. I will go with the Vikings -9.5! GO VIKINGS!!!!
My Two Cents – Back in October things were rolling right along with TSP Live, the text alerts were a big hit and everyone felt TSP Live content couldn’t get any better. Then, starting with Rogers Cellular in Canada, the TSP Live text alerts started getting blocked as spam by the cellular providers. When that happens, there is little you can do. It sucked, because the text alerts were working out so well. When the news broke that text alerts would be no more, everyone felt it was the worst news. However, as often happens in life… when one door closes another opens. The unfortunate text alert situation then necessitated the fast tracking of Telegram as an alert delivery option. Telegram content and programming was something I worked on here and there to prepare for the future. My plan was to unveil it for March Madness, using the time I take away in February to put the finishing touches on TSP Telegram! Well, the best laid plans… Telegram needed to get off the practice squad and right into the game with about 4 days turnaround time. Telegram did not disappoint!
Since launching Telegram the content has absolutely killed it overall, and it has been the most effective and reliable alert system I have ever used. The ability to program robots to seamlessly deliver an infinite amount of information to Telegram has been phenomenal… and I am just scratching the surface on the capability of Telegram and the TSP Robot Army! Which brings me to my plans for TSP Live content in December.
Right now, I am given a set amount of bandwidth on the system of two global books. I have a very close relationship with both books and within that relationship, I am allowed the access. Well, about 65% of the bandwidth I am allocated is used for operating and delivering the real-time LJP Scores to the LJP Scores page within TSP Live. It’s a lot of processing power that takes away from robots and expansion of content. I expanded to real-time LJP Scores because I wanted to see how the raw score content would do and what it would offer to subscribers. I do like it as a feature, but I don’t think the tradeoff is worthwhile. The performance has not been bad, but it has been flat and not providing too many useful angles one way or another. The LJP 2s and above, which are considered qualifying angles and trigger an alert anyway have a 58%+ win percentage. So the 2s and above are good, but the LJP 1U’s are just above 50%. The LJP 1OPEN were shown to be good fades, but I think in the end the performance will require a lot of action being outlaid for not a substantial ROI. The LJP 1D’s are 4-2 as a fade and the LJP 0D are just below 50%. So, while I know many like the real-time LJP Scores, there is a lot of computing power going to something that doesn’t really provide a commensurate ROI. People ask why the LJP 1’s in TSP Live don’t perform as good as those on Twitter. The reason is simple, on Twitter, I filter through the LJP 1Us and report the ones that paint a good picture. On Telegram, the robots take the raw LJP Scores, run it through various filters and spit out anything that makes the cut to Telegram. On TSP Live, you get the raw information with no filtering. My goal this week in TSP Live is to use the LJP Score computing power to fuel robots who will add filtering to raw LJP Scores and hopefully provide you optimized content. You never know until you try, so I’ll try this week.
So, given that next week I could not operate real-time LJP Scores anyway (due to book updates), I am going to try a little something new this week. Before anyone panics, take a breath and realize that NOTHING will change with TSP Live and the angles you know and love each week (Sharp Consensus, LJP Score angles, Group Buy Alerts, Late Buy Alerts, etc.). All those angles, which I consider “Qualifying Angles” and which comprise the +41.7 units of TSP Live performance since April, won’t be changing. When a “Qualifying Angle” is achieved, an alert will go out like it does every week of TSP Live.
What will change is instead of real-time LJP Scoring, I will be using the computing power to provide “Non-Qualifying Angles”. Remember in a recent newsletter I talked about how sometimes “information is just information”? Well, that’s the goal of the “Non-Qualifying Angles”. To provide angles that have shown value, but which do not achieving the “Qualifying Angle” bar. You can then use these “Non-Qualifying” angles as information within your handicapping of the games.
One issue brought up on TSP Live is people did not know what I graded. For me it was easy… if something generated an alert, it was graded. However, some people didn’t know what I would grade. So now, with the “Qualifying” and “Non-Qualifying” text in each alert, it’ll be simple to know what is getting graded. If the alert says “Qualifying Angle”, it will be graded. If the alert says the information is a “Non-Qualifying Angle”, it will not be graded. What you do with the information and content at that point is up to you. I do not advise you to do anything with it. I report, you decide. However, I lay out the above so you know what will be graded and what won’t be graded for the purposes of assessing how you want to use the information.
Summing it up…
1) No, real-time LJP Scores this week as I will try test out the robots on providing “Non-Qualifying Angles”
2) TSP Live will be graded based on the performance of “Qualifying Angles” only… as has been the case since April.
3) When you open a TSP Live Alert to read the message, the first thing the alert will say is **Qualifying Angle – XXXXXXX** or **Non-Qualifying Angle – XXXXXXXX** and the respective information will follow. The “XXXXX” would be replaced by the type of angle. So, something like **Qualifying Angle – LJP Score** or **Qualifying Angle – Late Buy** and then the information will follow. Alerts will also go out with **Non-Qualifying Angle – LJP Score** and the corresponding information. What’s the difference between “Qualifying” and “Non-Qualifying”. The non-qualifying angles will be information that hit the radar and the robots assess as important, but which does not achieve the high standard to be considered a “Qualifying Angle”.
4) The change will allow TSP Live to be more lightweight. Instead of checking the website for LJP Scores, now all you have to do is watch Telegram for alerts and then subscribers click the link (login if not logged in already) and read the alert message. There’ll be no need to check any other pages. On my side, robots can be employed to expand the content seamlessly!
As with anything, this all might sound confusing. However, I think when you see it in practice in the first couple alerts on Saturday, you will like the twist on the content and the trade for real-time LJP Scores. As with anything, it’s a test and we’ll see how it goes. I just want to stress NOTHING will be changing for the Qualifying Alerts and what gets covered there. If you have any questions let me know and let’s have some more fun this weekend!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays