Recap & Week Ahead – I am getting this out early on Tuesday, because the Early Sharp Buy is moving. I say the ESB on the radar yesterday and since then it moved another point. So, I don’t want to delay in case you are wondering which this is out early on Tuesday. Before I get to the ESB, let’s get to the recap… NCAAF wasn’t too bad this week, but NFL was a debacle for sharp money. Perhaps it was a little payback for the performance of sharp money last weekend in the NFL. Still, these types of weeks are inevitable when you follow sharp money. Nothing wins every week and this week was an example of it. However, it happened, there were losses, and the key is not exacerbating the losses by pressing and chasing. Yes, sometimes pressing and chasing pays off… but it is usually far less often than when pressing and chasing completely destroys your finances! A good example this past week was Thursday. Thursday was awful from a sharp money standpoint, and Friday was a 4-0 sweep. If you blew yourself up on Thursday, then you weren’t there to take advantage of Friday. Gambling is a grind. Global bookmaking companies are billion dollar organizations and it is not because it is easy to win money from them.
An example of this is TSP Live. TSP Live has operated for 36 weeks so far. In those 36 weeks, this past week at -3.3 units was the worst week ever. For that to be the worst WEEKEND is impressive since typically a -3.3 unit loss is a bad afternoon of betting. For it to be the worst weekend over a 36 week period is a testament to the quality and methods of TSP Live. Yes, this is me putting lipstick on a losing pig this weekend, but it is also a valid point. The point of the illustration being that if you started pressing and chasing this weekend you could have turned an average bad afternoon’s performance of -3.3 units into a financial apocalypse. I will never let a chance go by for me to preach the importance of bankroll management which is why I am bringing this up today. TSP Live is +37.9 units over the last 36 weeks. Some weeks are good, some weeks losing. In the end, you need to control yourself in the losing weeks so you are there to be grinding in the winning weeks. If you can control yourself, TSP Live has thus far averaged over 1 unit per week in profit. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but a $100 per unit bettor would collect $5,200 per year at this rate and a net profit of $3,400 or 34% ROI even after deducting the fees for TSP Live… and not including the performance of TSP Daily exotics, let alone all the free content. So, in this example the TSP Daily Briefing exotics are just icing on the +$3,400 cake… the free content is the ice cream to go with the cake!
TSP Live is now +37.9 units since it launched back on April 4th, after a miserable -3.3 units weekend. For the week ahead, the TSP Live content will operate on Saturday & Sunday and cover Sharp Consensus in NFL, NCAAF & NCAAB (so far no angles, but not unusual for early in the season), LJP Score angles and many new Qualifying and Non-Qualifying TSP Live angles like Late Sharp Buys and Group/Syndicate Buy alerts! I do not guarantee how many Qualifying Angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live weekends there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live weekends there may only be 1 or 2 angles the whole weekend. Setting a quota only incentivizes forcing reports and updates that aren’t there. I let the angles develop organically… or not. As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Before I get to this week’s action, don’t miss any more action on Telegram! Just yesterday it delivered information about a late buy on Buffalo and sharp buying on Morehead St for the 2-0 day! The Sharp Plays Telegram channel is FREE to access. For details, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Early Sharp Buys (9-3 YTD) – The Early Sharp Buy on Coastal Carolina over Liberty was updated to Penn St -11.5 over Rutgers when Liberty had COVID issues. Funny thing is despite the change Coastal Carolina was a winner over BYU anyway! Seems sharp money saw clear undervaluing in Coastal Carolina’s performance. In the end though, Penn St gave you a sweat, but they also gave you a win to bring the Early Sharp Buy to 9-3 on the season! So what’s on the Early Sharp Buy radar for this week? The Early Sharp Buy is Purdue +9.5 over Indiana. Indiana won this past weekend, but it was kind of smoke and mirrors as the Hoosiers gained 217 yards to Wisconsin’s 342… despite winning 14-6. Using standard Yards Per Point conversion (15 yards per point scored), in such a game Indiana would be expected to have 14.5 (OK, that’s on par). Wisconsin would be expected to score 22.8 points… a 16.8 point difference. Purdue on the other hand lost by 10 but only suffered a -32 yard difference to Nebraska. So, it could be the Hoosiers being overvalued this week and sharp money buying that overvalue on Purdue. Early Sharp Buy is Purdue +9.5. UPDATED TO WISCONSIN -1 DUE TO THE PURDUE COVID SITUATION.
Early Algorithm Look (4-9 YTD) – Finally! The 0-6 run was broken by Rice +23.5. Of all teams. Rice has QB issues reported on Saturday but still ends up not only coming out and getting the cover, but the OUTRIGHT WIN! Let’s hope it is a sign of things to come for the Early Algorithm Look. Time for the winning streak to start! What the highest value in the algorithm this week? It is on Thursday with the LA Rams -6 over New England! I am showing this price should be -9.5. So, I am getting a full 3.5 points of value and under the key number of 7! Early Algorithm Look is Rams -6!
My Handicapping (7-7 YTD) – Damn you Minnesota! I am back at .500 because the Vikings decided to have a picnic in the first quarter and let Jacksonville get up on them big right out the gate. When you are laying 9.5, it is tough to get back on track and get the cover… outside NCAAF. So, I am back at .500 and pissed. My pride requires this section to have a winning week. Where am I going this week to achieve greatness?
I am taking Houston -1.5 over Chicago. I watched Houston play a great game this weekend. The offense was able to move the ball with relative ease against a quality Colts defense. I was also able to watch Chicago get lit up by Detroit and blow a decent lead. I think Chicago will have a tough time handling Watson’s mobility, and that will open up the rest of the field. I think Houston’s pressure defense will annoy Trubisky and we all know Risky Trubisky is not good when under pressure. Throw in the fact the Bears may be fully throwing in the towel after last week and I like Houston here. I am not a fan of playing road favorites, usually they are the darlings of the public. However, in this spot I feel the price is low. I have Houston -3 here. Not a big difference, but 1.5 points of value isn’t bad. GO TEXANS -1.5!
My Two Cents – Sometimes I sit back and wonder what the hell happened to people. It seems there’s no longer anytime where people with differing ideas can coexist in the world. Instead, if you disagree with me, or if I don’t like something about you, I can’t just ignore you and move on… I must destroy you! What the hell? I am not even talking about politics. I am talking about the garbage I read on social media.
I’ll use myself and TSP as an example. Over the years you would not believe the threats and ill wishes I have received… FOR POSTING SPORTS BETTING CONTENT ON TWITTER!!! Not for my political or religious beliefs. Nope, I keep those to myself because I know how they can fire up people. Oh and 99% of the time it wasn’t even because the content lost. Losing can bring out extreme negative emotions, but that wasn’t the situation. What I get people fired up about is because I am posting betting content on Twitter… and offering some of it as paid content to offset the time and expense I put into The Sharp Plays (how dare I… I know, I am the Antichrist). I have had people wish awful things upon myself and my family, I have received various threats (death and otherwise). I am not some social justice warrior taking on totalitarian regimes around the world. I am not trying to unseat Putin as the leader of Russia. I am not trying to convert people to my religion (if you must know, I identify as Jedi, LOL). NOPE! I am attacked because I provide betting content on Twitter, mostly for free, some of it paid. The intention being that if you like it, great… let’s have some fun together. You don’t like it, all good… you move on to something else (#FFoFO… Fade, Follow, or Fuck Off). I used to live in a world where if you didn’t like what someone did or you disagreed with them, you said your peace in a civil manner and moved on. Of course there are still normal people today and there were always wacky people in the past. Unfortunately though, the ratios are thinning. It used to feel like it was 95 normal people for every 5 idiots. Now we are around 70 normal and 30 idiots. Perhaps social media has given the idiots a voice they otherwise didn’t have before. Sorry, but many people shouldn’t have a voice. LOL! Thankfully, the normal still outnumber the idiots, but damn, the growth of the idiot population is stunning over the past 20 years!
I don’t know if people are just miserable in their own lives. So, when they are jealous of someone or something then they need to destroy it and bring that person/company down to their miserable level. It reminds me of these sad stories where a girl breaks up with some guy. Instead of accepting it, the jerkoff goes and kills the girl. Because if he can’t have her, nobody can and she doesn’t deserve her own life where she can make decisions for herself. I know I am getting awfully deep for a sports betting newsletter. However, it’s just something I see every day that confounds me. I am not bothered by what people say to me. I have heard it all over 9 years and obviously, I am still here. So, y’all can go fuck your mother! It just bothers me that this seems to be a trend with no end in sight. A society that operates under the idea, not of competing with one another toward greatness, and to the victor goes the spoils, but bringing others down so you don’t have to work toward high achievement is pathetic. It’s lazy! You don’t like what I do at The Sharp Plays, do it better! That’s how life works. In some ways this stems from the “everyone gets a trophy” mentality. Instead of celebrating the best team in a baseball league or the best players in the league, those kid’s achievements are not recognized apart from the rest. Instead the best player in the league gets the same trophy as the daisy pickers who stand in the field and look at the clouds during the game. It’s OK if your kids are the daisy pickers, by why shouldn’t little Tommy be recognized as the best pitcher in the league too? Doing so makes others kids say… next year I want to be Tommy and singled out as the best pitcher and get that cool trophy in front of everyone! It motivates kids. If everyone is recognized as the same it becomes… Tommy worked hard and got the same trophy as me… screw working hard, you don’t get anything for it. Or worse… it’s not fair someone is more successful at something than I am… they need to get down to my level. In life someone is going to successful at something (through a combination of skill & luck) and another person is not. Instead of the unsuccessful person working hard to achieve that same success, it is easier to cut the successful person down… then nobody is more successful than the next person. If all the successful people are cut down, what do you have? A society of losers! Nobody stands out, everyone is equal… everyone gets a trophy and it’s a sin to be better than someone else. It is not a recipe for evolution, but de-evolution of a society. It is the moronification (my word) of the world.
Usually, the reason for the immense anger toward me is simply because I am achieving something the other person could not. Perhaps they are a failed tout who could never gain a following for their service. So, perhaps they see me, someone who stumbled upon Mr. Poison and turned it into a following of 38K, as not worthy of the resulting attention? Maybe they see my content and feel they could do it better, so I don’t deserve to be here. Some feel my content is fake, so these angry folks feel they have a duty to show the world I am a phony… and forever wipe The Sharp Plays from the record of history! However, the content wins and has done so for 9 years, so at a minimum… what’s the problem? These angry folks feel I am pulling the wool over your eyes. The angry folks feel those of you reading this message right now are sheep and you don’t realize I am taking you to the slaughter. So, on your behalf, the angry ones would like to destroy The Sharp Plays because, well, you are too stupid to analyze my content and make your own decisions about following me or not. LOL! Don’t you just appreciate these wonderful angry folks who are out to save you from yourself. So, they are going to step in and destroy The Sharp Plays on your behalf so you won’t be duped any longer. How nice of them! LMAO! So let me ask, are they really out to save you from yourself, or are they just angry you are following me and not them?
When the hell did this all start? I don’t know, but it wasn’t this way when I was younger, that’s for sure. When I try to think of where all this started… I go back to the whole Tanya Harding scandal. For those who may not remember, Nancy Kerrigan and Tonya Harding were figure skaters competing for spots on the US Olympic team. Kerrigan was the better skater. So, people connected to Tonya Harding essentially tried to knee cap Kerrigan and take her out of running for the Olympics… potentially paving the way for Harding to move in. Instead of beating Nancy Kerrigan in a fair competition on the ice and taking her spot, it was easier to try and take her out instead and get her spot that way. It’s too hard to put in the effort to beat out Kerrigan. It is much easier to beat Kerrigan physically so she can’t compete anymore. There is no glory… just disgrace!
All of you know how I got into the gambling business. If you don’t, visit the Background page for the details. Anyway, I was a nobody college kid with ZERO experience or connections in gambling, but I had a big dream and wanted to be a major player in offshore gaming. I put in the effort to locate a contact email for every online gambling company I could find and I emailed all of them with a proposal for work. Out of dozens upon dozens, two responded and one offered me a shot. I was lucky to get that major break (to succeed you need some luck along the way to go with your effort). I did everything I could to be the best and seize the opportunity I was given. Over the next 20 years, the resulting success through hard work and overcoming multiple failures, exceeded anything I ever expected I would do. I didn’t do it by destroying or defaming those in the jobs or contracts that I wanted. Nope, I did it by doing the job better. I did the job so good that companies HAD TO WORK WITH ME because they couldn’t get a better service anywhere else. It wasn’t even close. Again, not because I destroyed my competitors personally, but because I made myself and my services so indispensable and so valuable that companies would be at a disadvantage not working with me. Yes, I am proud of this, but I am not unique. I am not some genius or super hero. I just wanted something and I worked hard to get it. I worked through MULTIPLE failures, some of which put me back at the starting line, but I did not quit. If you want something, work damn hard for it and you can get it. Don’t give up when the going gets tough… most people do and not giving up is what separates those that succeed from those who do not! Don’t be lazy and expect success to just show up on your door! It won’t… success is too busy to come looking for you.
It’s the same “bring the best product/service” attitude I brought to The Sharp Plays. When I started The Sharp Plays, I did it because I saw a lot of people and companies, big and small, providing sports betting content. I looked at their content and said… this is total shit! With the access I have, I could provide content that blows this crap away. So, instead of trying to take out these people and companies whose content I felt was lacking, I decided to do it better! I knew I would beat these folks simply through doing things better than they did. It took effort, luck and time before The Sharp Plays content caught on, but eventually it did and here I am today… almost 38K followers and 9 years later. Just like my time in gaming, I have had plenty of failures along The Sharp Plays road, but thankfully the successes have blown away the failures.
So, it’s a big dream and it probably won’t happen, but I wish we could get to where people strive to be the best and beat out the competition. Not a world where people are too lazy to work, so instead they rather kill the competition. In one world we strive for success and high achievement, in the other world we want to bring people down to our level… striving for high achievement is just too much work. Pathetic! One world will evolve to greatness, the other will devolve to anarchy.
When you see someone win the lottery, are you the person who despises the lottery winner for winning? The winner didn’t go out to win the lottery to spite you. Sorry to tell you, but everything in life is not all about you… your parents lied. The winner was just lucky and is no different from the next person. The winner just wants to live a good life and to support their family. The winner is someone just like you. So, be happy for them and be positive that perhaps one day you too will achieve similar success… whether through effort or simply luck. Don’t wish ill on the person because they won and you didn’t. It’s nothing personal, it’s just luck… and you can get lucky too. So, which type of person are you?
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays