The Sharp Plays Newsletter Week #16

Recap & Week Ahead –  Can you believe there are only two more weeks left of the TSP Newsletter after this week?!?! The TSP Newsletter concludes its season with Week #17 of the NFL regular season. Looking back and given 2020, I am very glad we have made it this far in the season with football. Let’s hope for no upcoming issues and that we can have some semblance of an NCAAF Bowl Season. It’ll be nice when we get a normal season next year (or so we hope)!

As for the past week, it was a nice bounce back this weekend in TSP Live. After the worst weekend EVER (-3.3 units) of TSP Live, TSP Live came back with a 3-1 records for +1.9 units… missing the 4-0 SWEEP for +4.0 units due to Dan Bailey missing roughly 38 kicks (OK, 4 kicks… 10 points) in the game against Tampa! The misses killed the LJP 2U on Vikings +7 as Minnesota lost by 12… 26-14. Outside TSP Live, sharp action was rough in NFL on Sunday, not too bad overall on Saturday though. Saturday’s performance was thanks mostly to the success of TSP Live and Known Bettor coverage.

I discussed this in TSP Daily yesterday, but I think it is important to appreciate if you are following sharp betting content. It’s something I often repeat which is… in the short term, we never know what will happen. A lot is left to chance in the short term, like Dan Bailey missing every possible kick and killing an otherwise solid angle. In the short term TSP Live could have a +4 unit week, a -3.3 unit week or worse. HOWEVER, over the long-term, TSP Live, like the rest of the content, is expected (nothing is guaranteed) to grind out a profit. So, when you are betting you want to prepare for short term volatility using bankroll management while you travel the pathway to long term profits. Sports betting is not a get rich quick scheme. If you think it is, the only one getting rich will be your bookmaker. Sports betting is a tough way to make money and profits are not easily earned. No, profits as a professional bettor of any kind come through “the grind”. Profits are ground out, little by little, over the long term. These little drops of profit we squeeze from the sports betting fruit, when taken over time, can become a very sweet payout. For example, if TSP Live earned just +0.4 units per week on average, even a $100 per unit bettor would turn a profit each year (even after deducting TSP Live fees)! Anything above 0.4 units per week on average becomes gravy. Currently, TSP Live averages +1.1 units per week! So, don’t try to hit the jackpot every week in your wagering. Work for the wins, accept the losses, and be patient. If you are doing it right, you should see your betting bankroll growing at a very healthy level over time. However, if you aren’t disciplined, those profits you grind out over a couple months could easily be destroyed in a couple reckless weekends.

TSP Live is now +39.8 units since it launched back on April 4th, after picking up 1.9 units this past weekend. For the week ahead, the TSP Live content will operate on Saturday & Sunday and cover Sharp Consensus in NFL, NCAAF & NCAAB (so far no angles, but not unusual for early in the season), LJP Score angles and many new Qualifying and Non-Qualifying TSP Live angles like Late Sharp Buys and Group/Syndicate Buy alerts (if they occur)! I am looking into real-time LJP Score coverage returning in some form. I will keep subscribers posted in TSP Daily on the status (or lack thereof). I do not guarantee how many Qualifying Angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live weekends there may be 4 to 5+ Qualifying Angles reported. Other TSP Live weekends there may only be 1 or 2 Qualifying Angles the whole weekend. Setting a quota only incentivizes forcing reports and updates that aren’t there. I let the angles develop organically… or not. As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.

Despite a rough weekend in Telegram, the channel’s performance has been white hot since it launched in October. The channel is free to join. For details, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.

Early Sharp Buys (9-4 YTD) –  The Early Sharp Buy on Purdue was cancelled and made Wisconsin the Early Sharp Buy. It’s too bad, because Wisconsin had some last minute injuries and did not get the job done. Another example of why sharp money is waiting until the last minute (for the most part) this season. The good news is regardless of the next three weeks, the Early Sharp Buy is guaranteed to be a winner this season! Let’s hope though she can finish 12-4! So, where is the Early Sharp Buy this weekend? The Early Sharp Buy is a scary one with Northwestern +21 over Ohio St. Can Northwestern stop the freight train that is the Buckeyes? We’ll see!

Early Algorithm Look (5-9 YTD) –  Rolling now! The Early Algorithm Look won two weeks ago to end the losing streak and now won this past weekend too. It brings the EAL to 5-9! The best it can do is finish 8-9, unless I post the first and second EAL plays each week to the end of the season. So, that’s what I will do and hope the algorithm can get on a nice run to finish 2020! What is the algorithm looking at for the week ahead? The highest value showing within the algorithm is UL Lafayette +3.5 over Coastal Carolina. The second Early Algorithm Look is on Friday with Ball St +13.5 over Buffalo. Two relatively ugly dogs, but often that’s where you find the lines shaded… the algorithm loves the shade! Let’s hope it brings a 2-0 result!

My Handicapping (7-8 YTD) –  At least we didn’t have to sweat Houston! To finish the 2020 edition of the TSP Newsletter with a winning “My Handicapping” section, I need to go 3-0, a 2-1 performance only gets me to .500. So, the winning must occur this week if I hope to have a chance. Where shall I go for my win this week?

I am taking New England +3 (buying the hook) over Miami. I have faded Miami to success in a few weeks this season. The Dolphins have been a great story this year and with a great story comes great attention. With great attention comes overvaluation in the markets. The Dolphins were very competitive against Kansas City this past week, losing only by 6 points. However, the close loss was very misleading as Miami benefited from 4 turnovers. Without those, Kansas City would have blown them out! Everyone saw Miami’s close loss, few people saw why it was so close. New England on the other hand got beat cleanly by the Rams. However, the overvaluing of Miami’s result against KC and their general performance this year is playing into a good line for the Patriots. My numbers have this game at a PK. So, to get the Patriots +3, off a loss where Billy B is great, is too much for me to pass up. Division games are always tight, regardless of the quality of the teams (or lack thereof). I think the +3 points will be too much and I am rolling with the Patriots +3. GO PATS!!!!!

My Two Cents –   I want to thank all of you very much for all the great emails I received about the “My Two Cents” section of last week’s newsletter. Yes, it is pretty sad that people like I described exist in the world. People who hate their lives so much that they want to see others as miserable as them. It’s unfortunate, but it also isn’t going to change quickly. Yes, the overwhelming majority of people I interact with on a daily basis are great people and I am honored to have you as part of The Sharp Plays following. I hope the content and the evolution of The Sharp Plays moving forward will continue to deliver results for you! So, what’s going on this week?

It was a wild week with so many bad beats and late wins. Saturday alone saw a couple! UCLA went from easy cover to easy loss in about 30 seconds. Michigan St went from an easy cover to a sweaty push. Are you tired of placing a wager and watching Dan Bailey miss kick after kick. Are you tired of spending a Sunday afternoon sweating out whether the Chargers can complete the final drive to walk off with the win and cover? For many, they thrive on the sweat of it all. For others, it can be just too much stress… both physically and mentally. I know the following is going to sound like a sale presentation, but that’s not my intent. If you like the action, but simply can’t handle the bad beats and stress of it all, I would say that you may want to give the trading content a look. I bring this up because it has really surprised me how many TSP followers have gone from sports betting to solely trading the financial markets as their side hustle. I literally receive messages every week saying the same thing from people who couldn’t handle the ups and downs of sports betting. So, they took a break, decided to trade the financial markets and then never went back to sports. The move to trading has allowed them to have the excitement of gambling combined with a very healthy return, but it hasn’t pushed them to a brink of a heart attack every day of the week.

As many of you know, I expanded into trading content back in April. It was something I discussed on multiple occasions prior to the pandemic, namely in February when I was enjoying my annual time away from sports. However, it was the pandemic that put it on the fast track to fill the content gaps left by sports. Since arriving on the scene, trading content has been phenomenal. Details and results can be found at https://thesharpplays.com/the-sharp-plays-trading/. The free content I have posted on Twitter and Telegram is +7.11% (based on 3% of my portfolio dedicated to each position) since April… better than most mutual funds this year. The paid trading content (the Financial Market Analytics performance) has been even better, averaging 3-6 positions per month and an average monthly return of +27.9%. Nope, not bad at all. The average mutual fund returned 13% (1.1% on average per month) for the entire year in 2019.

While I am very proud of the return year after year from the sports content, the trading content has the prospect of achieving a far great return than is even possible in sports betting (even if you hit 60-65%+ on all your bets). As with any sort of financial market activity, you must assess any decisions you make with a licensed financial advisor who can give you a general plan that fits your financial and life situation. Trading is not for everyone and I would strongly suggest you obtain the advice of a licensed financial professional before proceeding in any way. However, for those who assessed their situation with a licensed advisor and who felt trading was right for them, many have since given up sports betting altogether (except for some pizza plays). Bettors found that trading provided them the same “juice” and excitement of sports betting, but they were much more relaxed doing it.

So, after a roller coaster weekend like this last one, I thought I would bring up the topic. If you are walking around this week dizzy from everything that went on, even though a winning week, you may want to re-assess the best course of action for your gambling and/or to get your “fix”. You don’t have to choose between sports betting and no gambling. There are other options, and given the messages I received over the past month from people who made the move to trading, I thought I would bring it up here. As I said, I know this comes off as “selling” the FMA or free trading content, that’s not the goal. Most people were surprised by how much they enjoyed trading and didn’t regret giving up the stress of sports betting. Might be the same for you, so just something to think about to get your “fix”. Sports betting does not work for everyone. If it doesn’t work for you, don’t fight it. Find a better option. Maybe it is fantasy leagues, maybe it is trading, maybe it is buying sports cards packs. Whatever it is, make sure your gambling fix is something you enjoy and not a torture! Your mind, body and bank account will thank you!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!  ūüėČ

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays