Recap & Week Ahead – We are down to the wire now. Christmas is Friday and then the following week it is New Year’s Day! Wow! We made it! I am really surprised we got to the end of the season and year. I know one week to go, however when we started this whole thing, bets were being made that we wouldn’t get to October with football. So, to have arrived at Christmas with NFL and NCAAF on the schedule is excellent! I think it was good we had football and the feeling of normalcy given the way March through August went. Despite the chaos of the pandemic and the elections all around us, sports helped to give everyone a break from reality for a few hours each day. In the end and regardless of how the year finished out, it has been another profitable year, and we had a lot of fun along the way. More on that in a bit. So, what happened this past week?
TSP Live dropped -1.2 units while TSP Daily picked up +0.5 units over the weekend… thanks to a parlay on Sunday. So, overall a -0.7 units on the paid sports content. Not a winner, but nobody should be standing on a bridge and looking down. Outside the paid content, the coverage went pretty well. We saw NCAAF sharp action go 4-2 and NFL go 6-4. We saw the Telegram robots with the 5-3 weekend! The robots just keep killing it and I am very excited about all the opportunities they will bring in the future. So, overall not a bad weekend of football! Oh and who can forget that the 1st Quarter Algorithm finally woke up and reeled off the 3-0 weekend! The algorithm is now two wins away from profit and another winning season. Sometimes it is not a lot. However, when it comes to betting profits, drips make a puddle! Those 1 unit here and 0.7 units there and 1.3 units some where else add up quickly in the whole scheme of your wagering. Let’s hope the momentum continues for the week ahead!
As discussed, similar to the Black Friday sale, I will have an after Christmas sale for January subscriptions. The sale begins on Monday (December 28th) and I will let you know in an email and on Twitter when the sale is open. The prices for January will be the same as the Black Friday discounts for December. What that means is the All Inclusive subscription (which includes the FMA, TSP Live and TSP Daily Briefing) is available for the month of January at a price of $200 (save $25). The regular discounted price is $225 (which is a savings of $75 if you purchased everything individually). So, the All Inclusive price of $200 is basically like getting the FMA ($100 value) for free! The other package on sale is the TSP Live Monthly subscription (no FMA, just TSP Live and the TSP Daily Briefing). The cost for the TSP Live Monthly subscription for the sale is $135 (save $15). The regular discounted price is $150 (which is a savings of $50 if you purchased everything individually). So, the after Christmas sale is a savings of $65 over the regular prices. What will TSP Live cover in January? TSP Live will cover any Qualifying Angles for the remaining bowls, any Qualifying or Non-Qualifying Angles for all the NFL Playoff games and any Qualifying Angles for Saturday NCAAB each weekend in January. The Christmas discounted pricing begins next Monday (28th) and ends at midnight ET on January 1st. On January 2nd, the All Inclusive subscription will revert back to the discounted $225 price (versus $200 in the sale) and the TSP Live Monthly subscription will revert back to the discounted $150 price (versus $125 in the sale). Thanks as always for the support!
TSP Live is now +38.6 units since it launched back on April 4th, after giving back -1.2 units this past weekend. For the rest of December, the TSP Live content will cover NCAAF Bowls, NFL, as well NCAAB (Sharp Consensus Only). Coverage will include Sharp Consensus in NFL, NCAAF Bowls & NCAAB (so far no angles, but not unusual for early in the season), LJP Score angles and many new Qualifying and Non-Qualifying TSP Live angles like Late Sharp Buys and Group/Syndicate Buy alerts (if they occur)! I am hoping to have real-time LJP back, but until one of the book’s systems has gotten back online, I am in a holding pattern. The system currently offline for upgrades is a reporting feature I use from the book. It doesn’t affect their operations, but it allows me to easily program the real-time LJP page. Until it is operational again, the real-time LJP page is not possible. I will however report LJP Scores, in TSP Live, Twitter and Telegram regularly. I do not guarantee how many Qualifying Angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live weekends there may be 4 to 5+ Qualifying Angles reported. Other TSP Live weekends there may only be 1 or 2 Qualifying Angles the whole weekend. Setting a quota only incentivizes forcing reports and updates that aren’t there. I let the angles develop organically… or not. As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Before I get to this week’s action, don’t forget about Telegram which continues to roll including a 2-0 Monday which saw a +225 price come through! The channel is free to join. For details, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Early Sharp Buys (10-4 YTD) – The Early Sharp Buy on Northwestern +21 came through in a relatively easy fashion. There are two more weeks left in the season, let’s hope the Early Sharp Buy can finish with a bang. Where is the Early Sharp Buy this week? The Early Sharp Buy has been the strongest in NCAAF. Unfortunately, we no longer have a full NCAAF slate, but there is some action over the next week. Thankfully there is one play getting a material and early sharp buy in NCAAF. The play is Western Kentucky +3.5 over Georgia St on 12/26. Let’s hope this one isn’t canceled for some reason… there isn’t anything good out there for an early buy after WKY.
Early Algorithm Look (6-9 YTD) – Really rolling now! One of the Early Algorithm plays was cancelled, but one was not and thankfully Ball St becomes a winner. There are two more weeks left in the season. I need the algorithm to pull off the 4-0 SWEEP to close this section with a winning record. For this week, the algorithm is showing the top 2 values as… Carolina +1.5 over Washington and the LA Rams +1.5 over Seattle. The algorithm has Carolina -1 and the LA Rams -2. It provides 2.5 and 3.5 points of value respectively. Let’s hope that value translates into a 2-0 weekend!
My Handicapping (7-9 YTD) – SUCKS!!! I was so happy to see strong sharp money taking New England on Sunday. I was able to secure New England at +3 here in a game where the Pats went off at -1. Talk about CLV. However, CLV didn’t mean S-H-I-T this week. The pressure is on me! To close this section as a winner I need to go 3-0 over the next two weeks. So, here’s what I am looking at this week…
I am taking two wagers. The first is the Las Vegas Raiders. The Dolphins screwed me good, but it was more so the inability of New England to get out of their own way. I didn’t think the Dolphins played all that good. New England just could not move the ball. The Patriots offense with Cam Newton is pathetic. I don’t think the Raiders will have the same issues… even without Carr (although he is expected to play). So, we have the Dolphins on the road, overvalued due to their recent performance against a Raiders team that got burned by the Chargers. I expect the Raiders to bring it all and get the easy outright win. I will gladly take the points that the book gives me here. The Raiders +3, which I am buying to +3.5 is just too much for me to pass up! HOWEVER it doesn’t end there. In my effort to turn this section profitable by the end of the year, I am going to go with a teaser this weekend. I am going with the Raiders +9 and tying them in with the Houston Texans -1.5. Let’s get the 2-0 SWEEP to get back to .500! Go Raiders and Texans!
My Two Cents – Well folks, next week is the final issue of the TSP Newsletter until August 2021. It is amazing to me how quickly the season has gone by! With the holidays upon us and everyone getting a little nostalgic this time of year, I thought why not look back on 2020 and reminisce together. Next week I will discuss some upcoming plans for 2021. Every year I like to see The Sharp Plays evolve and I have a bunch of ideas I am excited about for the coming year. I’ll get into those next week as we get ready for New Year’s. For now, Santa looks back on your good and bad deeds every year to decide whether you get coal or presents. So, let’s look back on 2020 and everything that went on. I love looking back and on things. Even the bad stuff. It’s healthy to look back on the bad stuff because it reminds you that, though you faced adversity and it was tough, you made it through (or you wouldn’t be here). So, let’s look at the good and the bad of 2020. I’ll try to do it in the same vein that Chris Berman does his Fastest 3 Minutes… as briefly as possible!
I know… but a year in review would not be complete without bringing up the worst of 2020, especially since it is how 2020 began… the Robin Hood Club Session #5! Robin Hood Club Session #5 started on 11/24/19 (fucking Eagles!!) and just fell flat on its face. People say I shouldn’t bring it up because it makes me look bad. Bullshit! I don’t hide from, but instead embrace my failures because you can learn a lot through failure. Admitting failure is a strength, pretending you never fail is a sign of utter weakness. As I love to say, show me someone who has never failed… and I will show you a coward! Bringing up RHC #5 hopefully shows I am not one of these jerkoffs in the sports gambling world who never made a bad bet, never had a bad run, never have a losing day… ever. Nope! Shit can go badly and January saw the Robin Hood Club close -19 units. I am still haunted by Siena and the parlay that could have been that one day in January, and all the times the RHC was close to closing profitably… except for a half point here or there!! It sucked, and I am sure glad it will be buried with 2020, but January wasn’t all bad. In January we saw the LJP (which launched December 2019) become one of the best tools in gambling. The NFL Playoff Bonanza used the LJP and the Sharp Consensus angles to great success and provided a nice profit to finish the NFL season. The LJP and Sharp Consensus showed in January that they weren’t one trick ponies either, as they were also used successfully in NCAAB, NHL and the NBA!
As we moved forward into February, I had my annual Super Bowl Prop Bet. It was on Tyreek Hill OVER in receiving yards. We all got to celebrate together on Twitter when Hill hauled in the 44 yard pass from Mahomes to put Hill’s yards OVER… WAY OVER! After the Super Bowl I stepped away from my usual volume of content to recharge the batteries after a long football season. February was also the month I first utilized robots to post content. The robots posted content to Twitter to keep the page active, even if I was stepping aside. The robots did a beautiful job too. When I returned from February break, it was time to prepare for March Madness. We hit the ground running in March! Right out of the gate the LJP & Sharp Consensus performed well in the NCAAB conference championships going 5-1 on Qualifying Angles. It was looking like it would be a fun and highly profitable year of Madness. Little did we know the madness we would be getting in March. It was definitely not the kind all of us knew and loved every year before.
It was an interesting time in March 2020. However, I have to say that for as long as I live, I will look back on my time with all of you in March, April and May as one of the most enjoyable of my 25+ year gambling career. When the sports world stopped, many folks stepped away from Twitter. However, a small contingent of diehards were on Twitter every single day with me. We talked Russian table tennis, Belarus hockey, Nicaraguan soccer, horse racing, financial trading and more. We laughed about all the wackiness in those events (remember watching those table tennis matches together?!?! LOL!!!). I brought back the horse racing algorithms and power ratings. One of the algorithms covered horse matchups. The matchup algorithm achieved great success right out of the gate. The success was so strong that it became a running joke watching me post the algorithm angles each day and then 5Dimes and BetOnline IMMEDATELY taking the matchups off the board and readjusting the prices DRAMATICALLY!!! Yes, it was fun to watch the books react in utter fear of the horse matchup algorithm and all your $250 limit wagers! Horse racing was only one of the many things we had fun with during the lockdown. Who can forget watching live streams of Nicaraguan soccer on fields that were in worse shape than the worst playgrounds in America. I built some great memories during this time with so many of you and I hope you did too. As the world went nuts, we all sat back in our homes, had a good laugh and made a few bucks together. Never forget… #WeMustBetOrCOVID19Wins. LOL! The comradery was phenomenal and I thank all of you for giving me those memories!
As the saying goes, when one door closes another opens. When the sports world stopped in March, I found myself with more time than I have ever had before. I always have a list of projects on my mind and usually little time to truly sit down and work on them. Well, COVID cancelling all major sports provided plenty of free time. I finally put together an article on creating an algorithm. It was something I had on my to do list for years. It is now in the Articles section of the website. It is a multi-part article where I did one part each week. Thereby people could take the lesson, work on it, ask questions and we could reconvene the next week. It was another great way to pass the time. It was also during this time that TSP Live was fast tracked and launched in April (first covering horse racing, then UFC and then soccer). The Telegram robots everyone loves were devised and built during this period from March to May. The trading content, which has been so good that many have given up sports wagering to concentrate on trading, was fast tracked and taken live in late March. The programming for the TSP.Live website was put together starting in April, tested over the summer and eventually launched in October. The time created by COVID was used as efficiently as possible and those dividends are paying off now… from trading returns, to a more efficient paid content system, to content generated by robots on Telegram (which has been phenomenal!!) and more! There are several other projects which I began during the period of March to May, and which continue to be developed! Stay tuned!
As the summer months approached, we left table tennis, Nicaraguan soccer and horse racing behind to get back most major soccer leagues and eventually to tennis, MLB, NBA and NHL. All five had profitable seasons of coverage. More important though, it was just nice to have a return to normalcy and the sports we were accustomed. We definitely needed it and it was for reasons beyond just betting this year.
As the summer months flew by thanks to all the action, all of a sudden we found ourselves in September and the start of the football season! As football season got underway we wondered how long of a season we would have. We just hoped to get through September at least. As I sit here today, it is nice to know we thankfully got a lot more than just September.
As we headed into October, the new TSP.Live paid content system went live. It was programming I worked on over the summer and I was excited to unveil it and all its capabilities. Unfortunately, just as the new system got rolling, another issue hit as text alerts started getting blocked by various cellular providers. As Puff Daddy and Mase said, “Can’t nobody hold me down.” Immediately the Telegram project and the robots created in the spring were fast tracked and taken live. Once again, another innovation that has been an incredible and highly performing wagering tool!
November was a good month, outside sharp soccer which… for the first time in ages… struggled for more than just a week. As always, the cold front never lasts forever and sharp soccer returned to its normal form. November also saw solid success across all other sports to help us overlook soccer’s deficiencies.
We now find ourselves in December and looking at the finish line of 2020. It has been an unforgettable year, and no matter what happens over the next 9 days, it will be another very profitable year on the sports content… and new this year, the trading content as well! Yes, it is something I am VERY proud of and work hard to achieve each and every year for both you and me! It doesn’t mean there won’t be failures along the way (like RHC Session #5), but thankfully when we look back those failures are far exceeded by the successes… just like they were again in 2020! Since coming online with my content in 2011, there has yet to be a losing year… not even close! However, it isn’t all about winning. Above all, I hope your engagement with The Sharp Plays in 2020 was fun, because that’s really what all this is about… celebrating the wins, venting the losses and laughing through it all together!
As we get ready to head into Christmas this week, I just wanted to again thank all of you for the fun and memories you have given me this past year. I thank you for your support and everything that support allows me to do inside of and outside of The Sharp Plays! The LJP, the Telegram robots, all the content, etc. is made possible through your support. You support also extends to things well beyond The Sharp Plays! It’s all about spreading the good karma… God knows there isn’t enough of that in the world. So, again… THANK YOU for being a part of it all with me!!!!! Before I close, I would like to wish you and your family a very Happy, Healthy & Blessed Holiday! I hope Santa puts some winning tickets under the tree for you!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays