Recap & Week Ahead – The newsletter is coming off a nice 3-0 week with it’s selections here. The best part is, like 95%+ of my content, it was FREE! Hope you enjoyed and hopefully we can get the repeat 3-0 performance this week. How did last week go outside the newsletter? On Saturday, the sharp money was mixed in terms of performance. There were a couple sharp highlights and about as many lowlights. One of those weeks where there is little to write home about, but not so bad that the public is backing up the Brinks truck from NCAAF. Sunday was a different story. Sunday was one of the worst days for the books in a long time. Every favorite except Philly won outright (which is big for moneyline and teasers the public will do) and the bigger public spread choices for sides and totals cashed as well. Typically, when the public wins big on a certain day, it is short lived and the books get it back rather quickly. Is this coming week going to be against the public and thereby favor sharps/the book? We shall find out, but I definitely would be avoiding public sides even more than usual this coming week.
I am often asked why sharps and public are usually on opposite sides. The answer is rather simple. When the public bets a game en masse, the book will slowly move the line up. Given the book typically puts out a quality number, as the line moves, the other side begins to gain value with every move. In a typical public game, let’s say Team A is -10. The public loves Team A so they start putting it into moneyline parlays, teasers, points spread bets, etc. Well, the book now needs to attract some money on Team B who is +10. The easiest way to do this is move the line to +10.5, then +11, then +11.5. Eventually the public action will force the oddsmakers to push the price to the point where it is attractive to sharp money. Sometimes that move may be half a point, sometimes more, but eventually the sharp money will get involved. Sharp money will buy the value and then the line will stabilize. So, when the week is good for the public, usually it is bad for sharps and the book. When the week is good for the sharps and the book, usually it is bad for the public. It’s a pretty standard equation.
For the week ahead overall… I would expect to see some upsets in NFL. Not every game of course, but I would expect to see a few favorites losing outright. Just because this past week was SO HEAVY to chalks winning outright, I look for a quick regression to the mean. In NCAAF, this past week wasn’t as dramatically favoring the public. So, I am not sure what to expect there. It is a decent sized slate compared to previous weeks. So, I am excited to see if the expansion of game offerings attracts more exciting sharp buying. It’s been rather quiet this year compared to previous years in NCAAF.
The paid content for this weekend’s TSP Live session (SEPT 26th & 27th) will continue covering NCAAF & NFL. Content will include the following angles: any Top LJP Score of the Day, Just Missed Top LJP Score of the Day, any Wild or Late LJP Moves, and of course any Sharp Consensus, plus there is always the potential for bonus action. I do not guarantee how many angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live sessions there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live sessions there may only be 1 or 2 angles. Be aware your purchase may only provide you 1 of the listed betting angles (in bold above) over an entire TSP Live session (in this week’s case, the weekend), or it could provide 2,3,4,5 or more betting angles. I let the action dictate the content, not an arbitrary quota. All a quota does is incentivize forcing angles/reports that aren’t really there. If there is not a single angle (Top LJP, Just Missed, Sharp Consensus, Wild LJP or Late LJP) that gets covered on Saturday or Sunday combined (unlikely, but possible), your TSP Live subscription will continue for the following week. Last year the content everyone wanted for football was the Sharp Consensus. You can probably see why as it is now 2-0 on this season. It won in Week #1 with a Just Missed Premium Play on UNC -23.5 and it won this past week with a Premium Play on the Colts -3. The wins moved the lifetime Sharp Consensus record to 44-19 over football and NCAABB for +23.10 units. As always thank you for your support on the paid content. I do not take advertising and I do not run a daily sports service. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.net/tsp-live.
A new setup will be coming to TSP Live in October. Instead of purchasing every week, getting a new password, etc. You will access TSP Live with your email address and a password you set (and can change). The password you set will work for the current and any future TSP Live sessions you participate in. No longer will you have to remember a new password each week. Also, you will have the option of a monthly subscription (covering every session of TSP Live that month) or you can continue to purchase on a weekly basis like how it is currently offered. Also, I am looking into adding a bonus feature for those who purchase the monthly subscription. I will have more details as we get closer. The new system will be active shortly for Financial Market Analytics subscribers buying October memberships. It will go live the week of October 5th for TSP Live! I believe the new system will be more streamlined and easier to operate. Stay tuned for more details in the weeks ahead!
Early Sharp Buys (3-0 YTD) – Another winner for the Early Sharp Buy with Boston College +5 getting there easy! Let’s see what goes on this week! For this week, the Early Sharp Buy is on Wake Forest +17 over Notre Dame. I am not sure how I feel about this one. To me this game is a toss-up, but sharp money feels that +17 is too good to pass up. There was even a minor head fake on this one as early sharp money was on ND and then subsequent sharp money grabbed Wake +18.5 down to +17. So, this week’s Early Sharp Buy is Wake Forest +17! ADDED: Since publishing this newsletter, the Wake/ND game has been canceled. So, the next largest Early Sharp Buy is TCU +3 over Iowa St. I feel Iowa St is a little overvalued, so I could see the interest in taking TCU with a field goal or better.
Early Algorithm Look (2-1 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look this past week cashed with DEN/PITT OV43. The line even dropped to 41 which was a concern given the money out there, but the algorithm won the day! For the upcoming week, the Early Algorithm Look is back to a total and is showing the highest value as DET/AZ OV54.5. The algorithm calculates this total as 59.5. It’s showing 5 points of value which is pretty big. TSP Live lost an LJP 3U on Washington/Arizona OV46.5 this past week. However, those who watched the game know the difference maker was Washington going for TWO, 2 point conversions and missing both. If they would have caught one, the OVER would have been a winner. So, the UNDER the L2 weeks for AZ could be helping to keep this total low. It could be why the algorithm is showing value for this week’s OVER 54.5! Let’s see how the algorithm does this week!
My Handicapping (1-2 YTD) – Did I tell you I suck as a handicapper? Yes, because I leave this same sentence at the top of this section every week. However, this past week I actually got the win thanks to Miami +5.5. For this week I am looking at Dallas +5 over Seattle. I can’t help myself, I think Seattle is vastly overrated. Seattle beat an Atlanta team that quit at halftime after giving up a long TD on a 4th down in the 1st Half. Then this past week Seattle should have lost outright at home to New England. I did not think New England played all that incredible, so for them to have a chance to win on the final play was telling me more about Seattle than New England. I think the Cowboys will have momentum from their comeback win and I think Seattle will be exposed for the overvaluation that is being attached to their play. I think, at best, this is a field goal game. Therefore, I am going to go with Dallas +5 over Seattle! I would not be surprised at all if the Cowboys get the outright win.
My Two Cents – For a long time now, people have asked me to do a class on betting. It’s a nice idea and I think I would have fun with it, but it’s a bit of a commitment I am not ready to undertake. Even though I find myself on Twitter more than I intend… every single day… I passionately enjoy my free time. Taking on the obligation of doing a class just isn’t for me. So, for that I apologize. On Twitter I meet people who are legitimately interested in putting in the time and effort to become a better gambler. I love seeing it. On the other side of this equation are the people I will lovingly call the dreamers. I say lovingly because, they don’t know any better. So, I don’t fault them for their stance. The “dreamers” are people who through their years of betting were sold on a dream from, not just the scamdicappers, but also the sportsbooks. So, when you are sold a dream from two completely different parties in the same industry, you begin to believe that perhaps the dream can become a reality. My hope is that I can dispel those lies and the fantasy. I hope I can assist you in developing proper betting techniques. More importantly, I hope to assist you in understanding betting realities. I’d love to make you a winner, but if I can’t do that, I hope the lessons and information I provide daily at least makes you less of a loser in your betting. The sentence doesn’t sound nice, but you get my point.
You see, sportsbooks sell the idea of “easy” and BIG WINS regularly occurring in gambling. All sportsbook advertising is geared toward telling you how “you can win” and they love to show off the big parlay tickets. Sportsbooks can’t wait to show you how one guy bet $10 on a ten team parlay and collected $35K. You know why they can’t wait to show you? Because they know there will now be 5,000 dreamers who want to be just like that $35K winner. In the process the sportsbook collects $50,000! On the other side, scamdicappers sell you on the idea that sharp money never loses, sharp money wins 65%+ of the time on a bad day and if you follow them you will do nothing but bet and live the good life. If there was a simple method of winning at sports betting, everyone would do it, and the books would close. The fact that being a winning gambler requires effort, a lot of effort, is what separates the wheat from the chaff.
Too many people have unrealistic expectations when betting. Again, these people are dreamers. When their dream becomes a nightmare they totally lose their mind, their self-control and with it, their bankroll. It’s a perfect situation for the book. What the dreamers don’t realize is that the professionals lose A LOT! As I have said many times, the public doesn’t hit 50% of their bets while sharp bettors hit 75%. No, the real numbers are the public averages 50% with sharp bettors averaging 54%. It is a VERY THIN LINE! Do you realize the difference between 50% and 54% over 100 bets is only 4 bets of difference? It’s why I always see people bitching about bad runs for sharp action. Yes, sharps do not perform that much better than the public or a coin toss for that matter. However, that little difference makes a big profit difference! People expect you follow sharp money and you win day in and day out without ever experiencing any pain. Oh, if those people only knew.
I am going to take you inside one of the books I work with. The book rates all their players and quantifies their performance in a variety of metrics. I ran a search to find the best performing bettor over the past 5 years at the book based on average annual ROI. Essentially, he’s the sharpest bettor at the book. Well, in 2019, the sharpest bettor, who had an ROI anyone reading this would drool over (13.7%), won EIGHT months and lost FOUR months. So, despite being the sharpest of the sharp, he still lost four months… one of which was tragically bad. It was a bad run that would almost certainly put the average bettor out of business. However, an illustration to bankroll management, the bettor not only recovered but thrived in 2019. Maybe one day I will dissect this individual a little further in detail in an article. However, for the purposes here, if I told the dreamers that I could have them follow a bettor who won 8 months last year but lost 4 months, collecting a 13.7% ROI, most would pass. Most would pass because they would assume 13.7% is nothing and why follow a guy who lost four months. Most would assume they could do better. Well, this book has tens of thousands of clients and there is nobody better!
My point of bringing this up is to provide a wake up call. It is early in the football season. If you go into the football season with reasonable expectations and an understanding of how professional betting works, maybe you can prevent yourself from being a big donor to your friendly bookmaker. Losing is inevitable. Losing can be a temporary situation for a bettor (like it is for every sharp bettor) or it can be a permanent situation (like it is for 96% of bettors)
If you can understand the above. If you can stop looking at betting as “easy” money. If you can understand that betting is grinding profits, not printing money. If you can understand that you can lose, and lose badly at times, but still be a profitable bettor at the end of the year. If you can learn to manage your emotions and more importantly your bankroll. If you can understand that the difference between sharp and public is only 4 games out of 100, you may actually have a chance.
I know all of this is redundant, but after a week where the public succeeded and the sharps lost, I thought it was good to bring this up to keep people in the right frame of mind. I really do like the idea of the class, but I am leaning more toward another idea. Similar to a combination of what I do with the TSP Live notes I unveiled this past weekend, the Financial Market analytics commentary and a straight forward class. I am working on a few ideas that wouldn’t require a lot of time, but would achieve those goals. I will keep you posted in the weeks ahead! Anything I do will be in the vein of teach a man to fish versus giving the man a fish. So, those looking for picks to go and bet will not want to be a part of this idea. If you want to work and actually use your brain to think, I think we can have some fun together! Stay tuned!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays