Recap & Week Ahead – In NCAAF, it has been a normal year for sharp money (nothing too wild, just a slow grind). On the other side of the football, the sharp money has gotten off to a very slow start in the NFL. The past two years, the best performing major US sports league for sharp money was the NFL. I fully expect the sharps to strike back. However, early on in the season they are having their issues. I am not sure if this is due to the change in the home field dynamic, the lack of crowds changing the offenses and defenses performances, etc. Regardless, sharp action has underperformed the first few weeks of the season. I have no doubts though that they will correct their miscalculations, adjust to the new 2020 dynamics, and get running. Some may remember back to KBO. The sharp money started the season there on an AWFUL run, down over 10 units. As of right now, they are up over 12 units on the season. Betting is a grind and requires patience. It’s something I cannot say enough. Don’t panic.
For the week ahead overall… first, all March Madness Bonanza and Robin Hood credits expire this week. You can still use them for TSP Live this weekend, but then they will expire on Saturday, October 3rd when this week’s TSP Live signup closes. We have a decent sized college slate this week. So I am excited to see what it brings. No bye weeks in the NFL yet means we have a full 16 game slate there. As I was typing up this newsletter, there was breaking news about the Titans and their COVID test results. So, we will have to see how that changes things. I am not yet sure if it is players, coaches or will have an affect on Sunday’s game. We’ll just have to see how it shakes out in the days ahead.
The paid content for this weekend’s TSP Live session (October 3rd and 4th) will continue covering NCAAF & NFL, but will change a little. Content will include the following angles: any Top LJP Score of the Day, Just Missed Top LJP Score of the Day, any Wild or Late LJP Moves, and of course any Sharp Consensus. . I do not guarantee how many angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live sessions there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live sessions there may only be 1 or 2 angles. Be aware your purchase may only provide you 1 of the listed betting angles (in bold above) over an entire TSP Live session (in this week’s case, the weekend), or it could provide 2,3,4,5 or more betting angles. I let the action dictate the content, not an arbitrary quota. All a quota does is incentivize forcing angles/reports that aren’t really there. Last year the content everyone wanted for football was the Sharp Consensus. You can probably see why as it is now 3-1 on this season with Premium Plays 1-0, Just Missed Premium Plays 2-0 and Other Sharp Consensus at 0-1. As always thank you for your support on the paid content. I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.net/tsp-live.
Another bit of paid content is the Financial Market Analytics subscription for those interested in algorithmic trading content. My Watch List, which is the featured content for the FMA subscription, is currently averaging an ROI of 33.4% per month. Details can be found at: TheSharpPlays.com/the-sharp-plays-trading.
A new setup will be coming to TSP Live in October. Instead of purchasing every week, getting a new password, etc. You will access TSP Live with your email address and a password you set (and can change). The password you set will work for the current and any future TSP Live sessions you participate in. No longer will you have to remember a new password each week. Also, you will have the option of a monthly subscription (covering every session of TSP Live for that calendar month) or you can continue to purchase on a weekly basis similar as to how it is currently offered. The new system is currently active for the Financial Market Analytics subscribers buying October memberships. It will go live the week of October 5th for TSP Live! I will break it all down when it opens next Tuesday!
Early Sharp Buys (3-0 YTD) – The first Early Sharp Buy was PPD and then the second one on TCU got the push. Let’s see what this week brings us! For the current week, the largest Early Sharp Buy is the team who played TCU this past week… Iowa St +8.5, +8 and +7.5 over Oklahoma. The move has pushed the number down to 7 or 6.5 at most places. The books reacted very aggressively by moving this one below 7. Let’s see how Iowa St does this week and hopefully these get back to winning! I think Iowa St has the ability to keep up with Oklahoma. We’ll see if they do!
Early Algorithm Look (2-2 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look lost this past week with DET/AZ OV54.5. It has now moved to .500 on the season. For the week ahead, the highest value out of the algorithm is Missouri +11.5 over Tennessee. Tennessee is a concern, but it does make sense they are a little overvalued heading into this week. Let’s see how it goes.
My Handicapping (1-3 YTD) – Did I tell you I suck as a handicapper? Yes, because I leave this same sentence at the top of this section every week. Dallas had a lot of opportunities this past week, but in the end they lose and I move to 1-3. We are basically a quarter of the way through the season, have to get on my horse! For the week ahead I am going with Atlanta +7.5. I was unimpressed with Green Bay on Sunday night. To me, Green Bay’s win was more the deficiency of the Saints and their ability to throw the ball down the field. Green Bay had no defensive answer even for the predictable Saints offense (short passes in the middle of the field). Old Drew Brees would have lit up the Packers. Atlanta has been laughable to start the season. Atlanta gave up at halftime against Seattle, blew a lead to Dallas in a wild comeback by the Cowboys and blew a lead against the Bears to let Chicago get the win. Atlanta was able to move the ball in each game and they have talent. I am not saying they win, but they have enough weapons to keep it close and the 7.5 right now looks too good to pass up!
My Two Cents – I had a topic in mind for this week, but I am going to put in on the back burner. There is a topic that came up today that I think fits well with my discussion of “dreamers” from last week. Today I tweeted that LJP 1’s are +18.3 units. A month ago they were +15.5 units. Nice and easy right?!?! Over the past month the LJP 1’s, without any sweat ground out another +2.8 units of profit. Doesn’t get any better!
Well, if you felt that way you would be missing out on a huge part of the picture. After achieving that +15.5 units in August, LJP 1’s dropped all the way back to +4.2 units. Yes, it was a drawdown of 11.3 units before they began the climb to +18.3 units! Oh my goodness, does anyone know a good bankruptcy attorney? I am broke after an 11.3 unit drawdown!!! Obviously I joke, but for many gamblers it isn’t a joke. For many gamblers a decline of 11.3 units puts them out of business… or at least in severe financial distress. Proper bankroll management is the primary difference between Pro’s and Joe’s. Understanding how professional betting really works is the secondary difference.
If you didn’t know any better and I told you LJP 1’s were +15.5 units in August and then +18.3 units in September, you would assume it was an orderly increase in profits over the month. You would be mistaken and miss out on that 11.3 unit drawdown in between. People believe that Joe Professional starts the year +0.0 units and finishes +25.5 units. Wow! How easy is that??? Joe just started the year at +0.0 and on a slow incline up the profit chart, ended at +25.5 units. What a beautiful and angelic picture. However, the picture leaves off the reality. More than likely Joe’s journey to +25.5 units by year end was something like this… Joe starts the year +0.0 units, down to -5 units, up to +6 units, down to -3 units, up to +12 units, up to +15 units, down to +8 units, up to +12 units, down to +3 units, up to +13 units, up to +21 units, down to +12 units, up to +16 units, down to +9 units, up to +15 units, up to +21 units, down to +18 units, up to +24 units, down to +20 units, up to +25.5 units. Yes it looks easy, if you cut out everything after +0.0 units and before +25.5 units. Something your brain will gladly avoid looking at because, 0 to +25.5 just sounds so nice. Your brain doesn’t want to bother with the details!
So, you see with Joe Pro, on three separate occasions he had a 9 unit draw down during the year, on two separate occasions he was also negative for the year. Most people don’t realize or see that part of professional gambling. They are just sold on the myth that the Pro’s never sweat it and they just go from 0 to profit without any pain. Reality is that the Pro’s don’t sweat it. Not because it is easy, but because they have an understanding of betting reality. The Pro’s know it will be a very wild ride… but they also know (assuming they have a proven system) that in the end the profits will be there. Having confidence in their methodology allows them not to sweat the ups and downs day to day, week to week, or month to month. Their confidence and understanding of how it all REALLY works helps them to stay the course.
There was an excellent article put out by Pinnacle. I have a link to it in an article on my website (https://thesharpplays.com/sports-betting-drawdowns-by-pinnacle-sports/). The premise of the article is that it breaks down the mathematical certainty that a professional gambler, betting 1 unit per wager and who possesses a 6% ROI on his action, over the course of the year is expected to have AT LEAST one drawdown of 22-25 units!! Yes, most gamblers would be suicidal over such a loss. However, the professional knows it is all part of the business. If people would stop believing that gambling, even for the sharpest of the sharp, is easy, then perhaps they would have a chance in their own betting.
So often the content I put out will have bad runs. Inevitably the comments will be “sharps never win”, “this is awful”, “oh my God, this is down 10 units… it’s broken”. No, it’s all good. You just have an image of sharp/professional gambling in your head that is based on bettors mythology and not betting reality. Gambling is an up and down grind. You go in with your mind on the finish line, knowing that in between it’s going to be CRAZY! It is not easy and there is no guarantee.
My point of the whole topic above is again to try and get people to understand betting using an example that anyone following me could have witnessed. The LJP 1’s over the past month were a perfect example of professional betting. Over the month they turned a profit, but it was far from an easy ride. Any level of professional betting is not a simple ride. Wait… I thought professionals bet and collect a pay check week after week. Easy money?!?! No, the road to betting profitability, even for the sharpest bettors, is more like a roller coaster. It is a ride with wild swings, loops, ups & downs. It is a ride that has even some of the sharpest bettors questioning from time to time why they do it. The professional understands it will be a wild ride, so they are prepared for the swings. Professionals know they will have massive drawdowns along the way. The professional structures their bankroll to weather those drawdowns, knowing they are inevitable… just like their profits at the finish line. John Q Public… well, he thinks you just bet and make money with limited effort. I love John Q Public, if it weren’t for him I never would have had a successful 20+ year career in the bookmaking industry. Thanks Johnny… you keep dreaming my friend! 😀
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays