Recap & Week Ahead – It was a very strong week for sharp action all around. TSP Live going 6-0 this past weekend was a good sign of the favorable sharpness of the markets. The NFL continues to lean to OVERs as well. Sharp money seems to have picked up on this. Sharps have adjusted their totals betting from the usual UNDER leaning in previous years to OVER leaning in 2020. The lack of crowd noise to disrupt offenses has been quite telling and fewer penalties this season has also helped. Lack of crowd noise does seem to also have an affect in NCAAF too, just not as much. Overall a good week, but they all won’t be this easy for sharp money. So, we have to be aware of potential regression this coming weekend… and if we see it, we need to recognize and step out of the way. There’s always next week!
For the week ahead overall… the big news, at least for The Sharp Plays, is that a new TSP Live system has been launched today! Those in the Financial Market Analytics package have been using the system since October 1st. The same system is now going live for TSP Live Sports content. In the past, when you purchased TSP Live each week, you would get an email with a computer generated password. You would have to do this each and every week. Now, at www.TSP.Live, you create a username and password. The username and password is your key to accessing any subscriptions you purchase (TSP Live, FMA, etc.). No longer do you need to remember a new password each week. Also, you can now purchase monthly subscriptions! I know this was a big request and it is finally here. Monthly TSP Live subscriptions DOES NOT MEAN daily TSP Live service. TSP Live, for the football season, will continue to operate just on the weekends (this may change for Bowl Season and Thanksgiving weekend depending on the schedule). So, when you purchase a month of TSP Live, you are simply purchasing every weekend for the calendar month in advance. The monthly subscription just means you don’t have to purchase every week individually. You can still purchase each week individually if you would like, or you can purchase for the entire calendar month. I think the new system will make life A LOT easier for you and me. You don’t have to purchase weekly and remember a different password each week or different passwords across subscriptions (TSP Live/FMA), you can change or reset your password right on the website by yourself, and I won’t have to deal with all the backend messages and forgotten password stuff I did before.
Another new development this week is the addition of TSP Daily (TSP.Live/tsp-daily/). TSP Daily is something many of you have asked for each day. TSP Daily is a daily commentary I will put out discussing the market action, trends in the market (not trends as in Team A is 45-0 ATS on Tuesdays) but rather if the sharp money is performing or the public is performing, etc. I like to think of TSP Daily as a cross between the TSP Live Notes I put out on the weekends and this newsletter here which I do every week. TSP Daily will be a couple brief paragraphs on the action of the day, discussion of strategies and such to use in your betting and perhaps some fun content like a parlay or rollover along the way too. It IS NOT a daily selection service. If you are looking for something that provides selections each day, this is not it. TSP Daily is intended for sports bettors looking for a view of the markets, general action at two global books, and general sports betting discussion of strategies and the day ahead. If you are serious about your betting and would like to gain an understanding the markets on a daily basis, I think you will love it. It’s content I love to cover and TSP Daily will allow me to do it. If you are looking for some Best Bets and selections each day, you will hate it. TSP Daily is intended to have you use your brain, not take you by the hand to the sportsbook window to bet. I hope you enjoy it and as always, I welcome any feedback! TSP Daily works out to be $1 per day each month ($30 for the month). TSP Daily is INCLUDED FREE for all TSP Live Monthly subscribers.
Sorry for the long intro today, but some bigger than usual developments to cover. One final bit of coverage on paid content…
The paid content for this weekend’s TSP Live session (October 10th and 11th) will continue to cover NCAAF & NFL. Content will include the following angles: any Top LJP Score of the Day, Just Missed Top LJP Score of the Day, any Wild or Late LJP Moves, and of course any Sharp Consensus. Content will also cover a variety of LJP Scoring angles (“Down” moves, general LJP Scores, etc.). I do not guarantee how many angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live sessions there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live sessions there may only be 1 or 2 angles. Be aware your purchase may only provide you ONE betting angle over an entire TSP Live session (in this week’s case, the weekend), or it could provide 2,3,4,5 or more betting angles. I let the action dictate the content, not an arbitrary quota. All a quota does is incentivize forcing angles/reports that aren’t really there. Last year the content everyone wanted for football was the Sharp Consensus. You can probably see why as it is now 4-1 this season with Premium Plays 2-0, Just Missed Premium Plays 2-0 and Other Sharp Consensus at 0-1. As always thank you for your support on the paid content. I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (4-0 YTD) – The first Early Sharp Buy cashes again and clearly it is the highlight of the newsletter thanks to Iowa St EASY! There is reason I put the Early Sharp Buy at the top of the newsletter last year and this year. Oh and why I put My Handicapping LAST! LOL! Anyway, let’s see what this week brings us! For the current week, the largest Early Sharp Buy is Tennessee +12.5. The same team that saw the Early Sharp Buy on their opponent last week, not gets the Early Sharp Buy this week. Looks like sharp money has made an adjustment. I do think Georgia is getting a little overvalued so I could see why the +14 on down to +13 saw a decent buy. Now let’s see the Vols do this week and hopefully move the Early Sharp Buys to a perfect 5-0 on the season!
Early Algorithm Look (2-3 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look lost this past week with Missouri +11.5 in a game that wasn’t close. For the week ahead, the highest value from the algorithm is BYU/UTSA UN63. The algorithm calculates this one way off. It actually almost concerns me that it is so far off, but let’s see what happens. The algorithm calculates this total at 56, which means it is off by a TD. You do see values like that from time to time. They’re rare but they do happen. Let’s see a very low scoring affair here!
My Handicapping (1-4 YTD) – See, I didn’t lie to you. I really do suck as a handicapper despite my best efforts. I am always determined to do my best to get this section of the newsletter profitable by the end of the season. If I am going to achieve that goal I need to GET HOT NOW! The Atlanta Falcons +7.5 really let me down. The Falcons had a chance for a good backdoor cover, but they blew it and I move to 1-4 on the season. I was so happy to see all the sharp money push the number down to +5 too. Still it didn’t matter I got +2.5 points of CLV. Oh well, on to this week! People have asked how my Personal Plays do so well though. My Personal Plays use not just my handicapping but a variety of other tools at my disposal. So, I can’t credit them solely based on the success of my handicapping. For this week’s My Handicapping section, I am going with another Monday Night game, this time the San Diego Chargers +7.5. Listen, I think the Chargers coaching staff is inept, but I think New Orleans is getting too much credit. The Chargers behind Herbert are a really good looking team. If you could get the right coaching staff in there, they could be a contender for sure. I just think the +7.5 is too much. The Chargers have a far superior defense to the Saints in my calculations and I think that will be the difference. If the Chargers can use that defense to shut down the Saints offense (5 yard passing down the middle) then the Chargers offense should be able to do enough, behind Herbert, to keep it close… possibly getting an outright win, but at least getting the cover. Come on Chargers, I cannot afford to dip to 1-5 in this section on the season!!! Let’s Go San Diego (listen, I’ll go with Vegas Raiders, but I am not calling them the LA Chargers)!
My Two Cents – I am going to talk about a topic this week that I really shouldn’t talk about. The topic is the “Dark Side of Sport Betting”. I shouldn’t talk about it because if you step away from gambling, there’s really no reason to signup for TSP Live or even to follow what I do on Twitter. However, I feel compelled to discuss this topic this week.
Every sports season starts out with bettors jacked up and ready for a fun season of betting. Inevitably, at some point in the season, these previously excited and jacked up bettors become depressed, angry and in financial distress. It is very sad to see, but I am sure everyone reading this knows what I am talking about. I could get into why it happens… irrational expectations in betting, poor bankroll management, poor discipline and emotional management, etc. I’ll save those for another time. Suffice it to say it happens and these bettors find themselves giving up gambling for the rest of the season as they work to dig out of the hole they dug themselves into. It really doesn’t have to be that way. There is a happy medium between having fun in sports gambling and jumping off the nearest bridge due to financial ruin.
If what I just discussed has ever applied to you, I want to give you some advice from my personal experience. Back before I got involved in the industry, I was just a kid in high school. I loved betting, but I absolutely sucked at it (kinda like now with my own handicapping). At the time I was betting money I didn’t really have, but I did it because I was hooked on gambling. Gambling is one of the greatest highs in the world. Back in high school I had dreams of being a professional gambler and living the lifestyle of fast money, fast cars and of course, fast women! What a deal! Problem was I had no edge and I had no bankroll management and I regularly found myself without any money. I would get money for cutting grass or for a holiday/birthday and would immediately blow the money. I would feel guilty, I would be annoyed I just blew the money, it would cause problems because I didn’t have the money I was supposed to have, and so on. I am sure you know what I mean! Although, having these issues as a high school kid are a lot easier to deal with than as an adult with bills and responsibility.
Eventually, I came to the realization that I could not beat the books. However, I still loved to gamble. I enjoyed the juice I would get from having money on the outcome of an event and watching that event on TV or in person. It was so cool! What could I do though? I was perpetually broke thanks to gambling. I realized the problem wasn’t the gambling, the problem was how much I was betting respective to my liquid net worth. For me, 1 unit = 50% of my bankroll. Not a very good equation. If I was hot, it was great! When I was not (which was more often the situation than being hot), I might as well have just burned the money. So, what did I do?
I know this probably seems so very basic… but so few people utilize this technique despite all the issues they face. What I did was I bet less money. Can it really be that simple? YES!! Instead of betting $100 to $200 on a game, I bet $15-$20. No, I would not achieve the lifestyle of a professional gambler at that level, but I could still have fun and have the prospect of making some money along the way. Instead of buying a car during a hot streak, I could pay for a night out with my friends at the club or some new clothes. I had to forgo my dream of being a professional gambler to get my life back. When I finally made the move, I was as happy as could be. It took a few weeks to get used to, but once I did, it was great! I no longer would sweat the outcomes, but I would still have fun and the rush with some money riding on the games. It was peaceful and I loved it. Instead of being glued to the TV or my sports pager (how many remember those), I could actually live life! I could actually spend time with family and friends without that nagging urge to check the scores every 3 seconds… as though it would have changed the outcome. It was nice not living on the edge of a heart attack for three or four hours of a game. It was nice not being in financial disrepair at all times.
I know, it’s just no fun if you aren’t betting money that could put you in the poor house if you lose. For those of you who feel that way, please visit my sportsbook at AcropolisCasino.com. I’ll give you a 5,000% signup bonus because you might as well lose the money to me! You sure as shit will be losing it if the above sentence is why and how you gamble. I understand your desire for the excitement betting at that level, but if you want excitement, go sky diving. Your risk of an early death is much lower jumping out of a plane and relying on rope attached to a nylon blanket to land you safely on the ground… versus your style of gambling.
So, if you are feeling the negative emotions I outlined above when it comes to your gambling this football season, but you still want to enjoy that fun of gambling, bet less! Instead of betting $100 per unit, bet $15 or $20. Sure, you won’t be able to quit your job and be a professional gambler, but let’s face it… you have been trying to be a Pro for the last 10 years, it’s probably not in the cards. So instead, keep your day job and just have fun gambling. You won’t be happy at first to relinquish your dream, but in the end you and your wallet will be thankful for the change, trust me. It will take some time getting used to, just like life for a drug addict after rehab, but in the same way, you will regain your freedom and with it, hopefully happiness.
When you start risking 10-20% of what you would normally risk on a game, you will be so much more relaxed and stress-free. It’s still fun to win a pizza money bet, but when it loses, you don’t sweat it! You just move right along. Isn’t that the best of both worlds? You get the juice of winning a bet, but none of the pain when it loses. Just some food for thought if these negative thoughts are creeping into your head this season.
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays