Recap & Week Ahead – I was worried about some sharp regression for this past weekend after the previous weekend’s 6-0 in TSP Live across NCAAF and NFL. It seemed like we might avoid it after a decent Saturday across all sharp coverage (paid and free). On Sunday though, the regression beast reared its ugly head to the tune of a 3-5 NFL Sunday. Hopefully that got the regression out of the system for the NFL, now with back to back good weeks in NCAAF, we have to be wary of regression jumping over to the college ranks this weekend. Concern of regression doesn’t mean you should not bet. It means you should be cautious in your betting. Perhaps bet lighter or bet fewer plays to limit exposure. Perhaps if the day starts out 0-2, take a break. Don’t start to press and chase. Realize regression is probably here and don’t be stupid and try to fight it. The regression monster doesn’t care if you keep betting harder and harder. All betting harder and harder does when you are losing is feed the beast! Don’t feed the beast!
For the week ahead, I will be cautious in my NCAAF betting, it’s been a very strong start to the season and sharp reporting is hitting over 62%! Over in the NFL, I will look for a bounce back. NFL is usually the stronger of the two from a sharp perspective and we are way overdue (although I don’t put a lot of weight in the “due” factor) for a good sharp run this season. I think sharps have struggled with the new dynamics & variables this season in their calculations. The lack of penalties, crowd noise to disrupt offenses, etc. has been something that nobody knew how to quantify. Heading into Week 6, hopefully they can now quantify it! Perhaps now is a good time to have real-time LJP Scoring return for NFL & NCAAF. Details below in this section!
The new TSP Live system at www.TSP.Live, despite having a rough day on Sunday (1-3), worked out well from a functional standpoint. The newest addition of TSP Daily (TSP.Live/tsp-daily/) has been a big hit too. TSP Daily is just a daily newsletter of sorts where I discuss betting theory, strategies, provide an early look at the market action and occasionally some exotic or other selections. For example this past week TSP Daily offered two teasers which went 2-0! If you are looking for a daily selection service… DO NOT purchase TSP Daily. It IS NOT a daily selection service. If you are serious about your betting and would like to gain an understanding the markets on a daily basis, I think you will love it. It’s content I love to cover and TSP Daily will allow me to do it. If you are looking for some Best Bets and selections each day, you will hate it. TSP Daily is intended to have you use your brain, not take you by the hand to the sportsbook window where I tell you what to bet. I hope you enjoy it and as always, I welcome any feedback! TSP Daily works out to be about $1 per day each month ($30 for the month, reducing little by little as the calendar month goes along). TSP Daily is INCLUDED FREE for all TSP Live Monthly subscribers.
The paid content for this weekend’s TSP Live session (October 17th and 18th) will continue to cover NCAAF & NFL. Except this week it expands into something people have asked for… REAL-TIME LJP SCORING! Yes, every NCAAF and NFL game will have full LJP Scoring through the website. It’s going to be a test run this week to see how it goes with an audience accessing it, but I am excited to bring this feature back. It was something I did over the summer with UFC and soccer… and people loved it… as did I! Additional content in TSP Live this week will include the following angles: any Top LJP Score of the Day, Just Missed Top LJP Score of the Day, any Wild or Late LJP Moves, and of course any Sharp Consensus. Content will also cover a variety of LJP Scoring angles (“Down” moves, general LJP Scores, etc.). I do not guarantee how many angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live sessions there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live sessions there may only be 1 or 2 angles. Be aware your purchase may only provide you ONE betting angle over an entire TSP Live session (in this week’s case, the weekend), or it could provide 2,3,4,5 or more betting angles. I let the action dictate the content, not an arbitrary quota. All a quota does is incentivize forcing angles/reports that aren’t really there. Last year the content everyone wanted for football was the Sharp Consensus. You can probably see why as it is now 5-2 this season with Premium Plays 2-0, Just Missed Premium Plays 2-0 and Other Sharp Consensus at 1-2. As always thank you for your support on the paid content. I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (4-1 YTD) – The Early Sharp Buy for last week brought us the first loss of the season after a nice 4-0 start. Tennessee kept it close for a bit and then just gave way big time. Let’s hope for better things with this week’s Early Sharp Buy. The Early Sharp Buy for this week is Virginia Tech -11 over Boston College. BC has been playing tough recently. Perhaps it is this toughness that is causing them to be seen as overvalued by sharp money. Virginia Tech looked rough this past week in a loss to UNC… despite 495 yards of offense. Maybe a bounce back week for VTech? Let’s see if the Early Sharp Buys can get back on track!
Early Algorithm Look (3-3 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look got the win this past week with BYU/UTSA UN63. For the week ahead, the Early Algorithm Look is showing the top value as Pittsburgh/Miami UN49.5. The algorithm calculates this total at 46.5 which is 3 points of difference from the current number. Let’s look for a low scoring game this week. The Hurricane offense is a concern, but the algorithm says don’t worry about it! Let’s see how she does!
My Handicapping (2-4 YTD) – I am the greatest! I got an easy win on Chargers +7.5! The sharp money that arrived on New Orleans on Monday was no match for my handicapping prowess! OK, I still suck at 2-4, but I feel a run coming for me (LOL!). For the week ahead I am going with Tampa Bay +2.5 over Green Bay. Fan Duel, Draft Kings and Pinnacle are all offering +2.5 as I type this up. I think the Packers are SOOOOO overrated. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS this season and that is contributing to them being overvalued today. Who did Green Bay beat? They beat Minnesota who looked ugly to start the season, Detroit (do I need to say more), New Orleans (we saw how pathetic they looked yesterday, good thing Lynn is on the other side of the field), and Atlanta (a complete joke of a football team). Tampa lost to New Orleans (I won’t hold this against them, Brady’s first game in TB was going to have issues getting acclimated), beat Carolina (a quality team) by 14, beat Denver (nothing special), the LA Chargers (this is worth noting as a decent team) and lost to Chicago (despite almost gaining 100 yards more than the Bears). I think these results for both teams are not being valued properly and I think Tampa will dominate the Packers. I may look like a fool for saying that, but it won’t be the first time I look like a fool. I think Tampa brings a better defense and a more than sufficient offense to the table. I’ll take the +2.5, but again, I think Tampa wins outright!
My Two Cents – I wrote an article last year about the Sports Information Buffet (CLICK HERE TO READ). The goal of the article was discussing bettor’s FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). No bettor wants to miss out on the next big win. So, they try to put everything on their plate, so they have every angle covered and thereby they don’t miss a thing. The problem is this is an awful betting strategy. It makes bettors overleveraged and often not in situations which give bettors an edge. Again, I’ll let you read the buffet article as it stands for itself. Today I want to talk about a worse strategy along this line. The “worse strategy” are those bettors who jump from hot streak to hot streak hoping that in doing so they will avoid any losing or worse, a cold streak. These bettors don’t realize they are walking into a betting buzz saw called REGRESSION!
For this example I will call one of these type bettors Frankie the Follower. Frankie comes across my Twitter page and decides he won’t put everything on his plate. Instead Frankie will just follow the sharp MLB. Good job Frankie! However, as soon as Frankie follows, sharp MLB goes 0-4. Oh Frankie! At this point Frankie notices that Joe Blow, a service or Twitter capper, is 7-0 in the MLB Playoffs this year. Frankie who went 0-4 on sharp MLB will be sure to comment how my information sucks, how I make it up, how it is not sharp and on down the list of standard angry comments. I do love guys like Frankie and their messages. Never ceases to give me a laugh. Anyway, Frankie stops following my stuff and follows Joe Blow instead. No problem! Well, unfortunately Joey immediately goes 0-3. Frankie in this example is now 0-7 his last 7 plays following myself and Joe Blow. Frankie feels the world is against him. The universe has some sort of dislike for him and no matter who he follows he just loses. Frankie then decides to jump off a bridge and on the way down his scrotum gets ripped on a beam. WOW, didn’t see that coming did you?!? Don’t be Frankie! Unfortunately, Frankie was so emotional and irrational in his betting he didn’t take the time to engage his brain and look at the big picture. Nobody is going to win 100% forever, just like nobody is going to lose 100% forever. The worst time to follow a handicapper is after a big winning streak. The winning streak is not going to last. Maybe you get a couple wins out of it, however usually you are just setting yourself up to be there for the regression.
Regression was a topic I discussed a lot this past week. Why? Because the previous weekend was so hot from a sharp perspective. Nothing runs hot forever… just like nothing runs cold forever. These things ebb and flow in betting. You have to be aware of the ebb and flow. You can’t have a great weekend and then throw caution to the wind assuming the next weekend will be just the same… it usually is not. Again, there is an ebb and flow to betting. Sometimes you are winning, sometimes you are losing. Your goal is to be winning slightly more than you are losing. Of course your goal is to win exponentially more than you lose, however we are all realists (not really, but I can hope to convert you) and know that at best, we hope to win just slightly more than we lose.
Joe Blow went 7-0 and then lost three bets. Joe is still 7-3 in this span which is pretty damn good. However, Frankie was following Joe because he assumed Joe would continue winning and winning without any pain. Long-term perhaps Joe is a good gambler and does win consistently LONG TERM, but that doesn’t help you if you keep jumping off the information on a SHORT TERM basis. It is something I see all the time. People follow some bit of content I offer, content which has a long-term positive ROI. The problem is they don’t bet for the long term and ride out the good and the bad. Most Frankie types will hit the bad and then give up. In doing so they are never around for the good. Frankie will see me hot again and then jump on… once again when it is too late. Stop trying to create a betting system where you will never experience pain/losing but only experience winning. You cannot have one without the other!
Please, don’t try to follow every single selection that gets put out. Put together a strategy that works for you. Will I help you with this? No, I do not want any involvement in people’s wagering. Nothing personal. You need to make the decisions for yourself. It really is not rocket science if you sit down, review the records I post on the website and the daily content. Then look at your bankroll, what you like to bet, how many open games you want to have at a given time and then decide for yourself what to do. What I just outlined forces you to stop and think, something most people don’t do in betting. If you would, I think you would be surprised at what a difference it makes.
So, stop chasing the latest hot streak. Find consistently performing content. If that’s following me, awesome. If that’s not following me, that’s awesome too! As long as you find a long-term consistent winner. Then tell yourself you will not win every bet, you are going to lose lots of bets, but if you stay the course you will be a winner and the end of the season/year/etc. Now, setup a bankroll management strategy that works for you in betting the strategy you have just built. At this point, you will have everything you need to be a better bettor… and you won’t get your scrotum torn open jumping off a bridge! Sounds like a good plan to me!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays