Recap & Week Ahead – It was another mixed weekend for NFL. I am still waiting for that weekend where the sharps really clean up. Sharp NFL is not negative this season, but NFL this season is definitely under performing each of the last 5 seasons. The public is also having their best NFL season in several years. We’ll see if the public regresses and the sharp money progresses as the season moves along. What isn’t under performing this season is the 1st Quarter algorithm! The algorithm is my absolute favorite as many of you know. I just think betting a 1st Quarter is very exciting… it feeds the degenerate in me. The 1st Quarter algorithm is posted every Sunday on Twitter and is currently 6-3 for +3.2 units this season! Hopefully we can cash another play or two this coming week!
Over in college, the sharp money really keeps rolling along well. It’s been so strong that I worry that when regression hits, it is going to hit like a freight train. So, I am very cautious every Saturday… but I will keep following the sharp money until it bites me in college. Then I will step back, with profits up to that point well secured, and wait for the regression storm to pass. There is a Saturday and Sunday in every week, but it doesn’t mean you have to bet every single one.
For the week ahead, it’s a big week in college as more of the conferences come back online. Big one for this week sees the Big 10 is back in action. Should make for some fun wagering out there. I am hopeful that sharp money will be ahead of the curve with these conferences coming back online as they have been. Thereby the sharps know who is ready and who is not. As you will see shortly in the Early Sharp Buy section, it’s interesting what they are buying and to think this team could be ready for the reason… but what do I know? Let’s have some fun this week!
VERY IMPORTANT – On Sunday there was an issue with text alerts. Roughly 25% of the alerts on Sunday night were blocked by cellular providers. It is simply algorithms reading the messages and blocking them as spam. When they do, they then block the numbers who sent the spam from sending messages in the future to their customers. There is typically a cool down period when the providers will drop the block, however there is no information as to how long this will be. So, if you have not gotten an FMA alert, TSP Live alert or TSP Daily alert since Sunday, you are more than likely affected by the issue. The good news is I was able to locate a very simple option that appears to resolve the issue. Details can be found at https://tsp.live/register-for-tsp-live-fma-alerts/. Even if you have received all alerts without issue since Sunday to your mobile phone, please visit this link above and re-register your mobile phone number. The old alert lists will be deleted Friday as I transition to the new setup. I am also looking at other options for the future, including the use of Telegram. HOWEVER, the “Text Free” app detailed at the link above appears to work well and is very easy to setup. The other option of setting alarms for the key game times and then checking the TSP Live page when the alarm goes off is probably the best method to ensure you don’t miss a thing. However, I know the text alerts are nice. So, please visit the link above, login and register or re-register for text alerts. Email alerts are now also available through that same link above. So, if you want text and/or email alerts, visit the link and follow the instructions to program alerts for your subscriptions.
Speaking of which, the new TSP Live system at www.TSP.Live, despite having some issues with text on Sunday night, had a great weekend going 4-1 on qualifying angles! The new real-time LJP Score system for every NFL & NCAAF game worked out BEAUTIFULLY!! I was waiting to have a ton of issues with the system since this was the first run of it. However, it went off without a hitch! TSP Daily (TSP.Live/tsp-daily/) almost cashed a parlay and went 1-1 on the week with teasers. TSP Daily is just a brief daily newsletter where I discuss betting theory, strategies, provide an early look at the market action and OCCASIONALLY some exotic or other selections. If you are looking for a daily selection service… DO NOT purchase TSP Daily. It IS NOT a daily selection service. If you are serious about your betting and would like to gain an understanding of the sports markets on a daily basis, I think you will love it. It’s content I love to cover and TSP Daily will allow me to do it. If you are looking for some Best Bets and selections each day, you will hate it. TSP Daily is intended to have you use your brain, not take you by the hand to the sportsbook window where I tell you what to bet. I hope you enjoy it and as always, I welcome any feedback! TSP Daily works out to be about $1 per day each month ($30 for the month, reducing little by little as the calendar month goes along). TSP Daily is INCLUDED FREE for all TSP Live Monthly subscribers.
The paid content for this weekend’s TSP Live session (October 24th and 25th) will continue to cover NCAAF & NFL and REAL-TIME LJP SCORING is back for this week! Yes, every NCAAF and NFL game will have full LJP Scoring through the website. TSP Live will also cover the following qualifying angles: any Top LJP Score of the Day, Just Missed Top LJP Score of the Day, any Wild or Late LJP Moves, and of course any Sharp Consensus. I do not guarantee how many angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live sessions there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live sessions there may only be 1 or 2 angles. Be aware your purchase may only provide you ONE qualifying betting angle over an entire TSP Live session (in this week’s case, the weekend), or it could provide 2,3,4,5 or more qualifying betting angles. I let the action dictate the content, not an arbitrary quota. All a quota does is incentivize forcing angles/reports that aren’t really there. Last year the content everyone wanted for football was the Sharp Consensus. You can probably see why as it is now 6-3 this season with Premium Plays 2-0, Just Missed Premium Plays 2-1 and Other Sharp Consensus at 2-2. As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (5-1 YTD) – The Early Sharp Buy cashed again last week with Virginia Tech -11 and we got some decent CLV as VTech closed at -13! What’s the Early Sharp Buy for this week? It’s an interesting one that will probably make your stomach turn. How do you feel about Rutgers down to +13.5? Well, it’s up to you, but there is no denying that as of right now, this is the position at the top of the Early Sharp Buy list. Rutgers has just been such a bad team, but as is often said… the worst looking bets are usually the best ones. We’ll see if that is the case here for the Scarlet Knights!
Early Algorithm Look (3-4 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look did not look so well as Pitt/Miami UN49.5 missed out. It was another one we got good CLV as the total dropped to around 46.5, but it did not matter. Where is the algorithm showing the big early week value? It loves West Virginia/Texas Tech UN55.5. It is calculating this total at 52.5, so we get three points of value. Let’s see a nice 10-6 final!
My Handicapping (3-4 YTD) – I am rolling now! LOL! I catch a nice and easy win with Tampa Bay in a blowout to bring me one game to .500. Let’s get to .500 this week!! For this week I am going with Houston +3.5 and continuing the Green Bay fade. Houston played well in the 2nd half against Tennessee and I continue to believe that Green Bay is VASTLY overrated. The Packers were fully exposed by Tampa. I like Tampa but they are not as good as they looked against Green Bay. It’s just that Green Bay is not a good team or at least anywhere near what they are billed as by the media. Despite the result against Tampa, Green Bay is still showing as overvalued this week. The oddsmakers and public are pricing Green Bay this week as though last week was more a fluke than Green Bay being exposed. Then we have Houston who should have cashed and given TSP Live a perfect 5-0 week instead of 4-1… but I digress! Once Houston settled in, their defense did enough to get the job done and their offense really opened things up. I think the Houson offense is going to be a big problem for Green Bay’s defense. Green Bay is now on the road for B2B weeks and Houston gets to settle in this week and stew over how badly they finished the game against Tennessee. While I think the Packers will move the ball, I think the fact that Houston will have no problem against the Packers defense is the key. Houston’s efficiency should keep the score close. Green Bay may win, but that +3.5 is too good for me to pass up right now. I see this going to +3 and I am happy to grab the +3.5 points right now!
My Two Cents – It has been a busy week as TSP Live goes through the evolution that every new system goes through. So, I don’t have my usual ranting ready. However, there is a topic I wanted to touch on quickly and it works great for this week. It’s bankroll management. People look at bankroll management as though it is some doctorate level course with extensive research, mathematical formulas and lab work. No, it doesn’t have to be that way. I am a big math guy, but despite my mathematical leanings, the system I use for my bankroll is pretty standard.
What do I do? I decide on an amount of money I want to dedicate to my bankroll. The amount I choose is money that if I lost 100% of it… I would not cry or jump off a bridge. Maybe I would shed one solitary tear and then I’d move along. So for yourself, think of an amount of money you are willing to dedicate to betting using the parameters I just laid out. It doesn’t matter if that amount is $1,000 or $10,000,000… whatever fits for you!
Now that you have figured out that amount, let’s say it is $10,000. What does this mean for your betting? Well, I use the following formula… Bankroll/100 = my unit wager. So, in this example, we would take $10,000/100 units to get $100 per unit. Thereby a person with a $10,000 bankroll would be $100 per unit. Now, the formula only works mathematically if you are wagering 1-1.5 units AT MOST on your wagers. The 100 unit bankroll allows you to wager any expected draw down… while not sweating it and while having plenty of money in reserve.
Yes there is the Kelly Criterion and all that other bullshit. Yes it would probably optimize my bankroll if I undertook that method, but I am a creature of habit. I have been using the same method for over 20 years, I am not changing it now! I like wagering 1 unit per bet and spreading my bankroll over 100 units. It works for me!
Summing it all up… figure out an amount of money you want to dedicate to sports betting. Next, divide that figure by 100. The resulting number is what you wager per unit… provided your wagers are 1-1.5 units or less each. That’s it! Yes, it can really be that simple. Even if this method is just a starting point, at least have SOME SORT of bankroll management plan. You will be a lot happier for having it and your stress level from betting will be almost non-existent. Imagine how nice that would be?!?
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays