Recap & Week Ahead – There is a lot to recap from this past week. First, TSP Live had another good week going 4-2 on qualifying angles. The real-time LJP Scoring now has two successful weeks under its belt. LJP Scores covering all NFL & NCAAF games are now 9-4 for 69.2% on LJP 2’s (highest score the L2 weeks), “U” or “UP” moves are now 28-20 for 58.3%, “D” or “DOWN” moves (fades as they signify a late sharp buy on the other side of the wager) are 10-14 for 41.7% or 14-10 for 58.3% as fades. LJP 1OPEN Scores, appear to be fades since they illustrate initial sharp buying, and then no follow through or interest, are 27-40 for 41.7%. I am very happy with the new system. On top of the TPS Live success this past week, on Friday I finally did it! I cashed a Rollover thanks to ULL. The Rollover turned $100 into $3,743 or a 36.43-1 payoff! The rollover was free and covered fully on Twitter. I will definitely be looking to put together another one soon! The fun with exotics didn’t end with the rollover either, TSP Daily (TSP.Live/tsp-daily/) went 2-0 on parlays and collected 22.8 units of profit when Rutgers got the outright win! We cashed two parlays to bring the TSP Daily parlay record to 2-1 for +21.8 units! Hopefully find another gem or two this weekend.
How did the sharps perform this weekend? They are still quite strong in NCAAF and sketchy in NFL. The NFL is a shocker because that has typically been very strong to the sharp side the past several years. Not sure if it is just luck, COVID or something else. However, sharp money is under performing the usual in the NFL. The dogs have bounced back though the past two weeks and that is where the sharps spend most of their money. So, if the dog progression is on, could hopefully be a couple good weeks for the sharp money.
Still more news to cover this week. So, last Sunday (not this past Sunday) there was an issue with text alerts. It was only a matter of time because an issue occurred and it finally did. Due to the issue there was a band-aid solution in using the Text Free app. As that app resolved the immediate problem, I began to put together a long term solution. The long term solution is the use of Telegram. For those unfamiliar, visit Telegram.org. Telegram allows me to issue alerts to a large audience instantaneously. Telegram also complete avoids any issues with text messages and cellular providers. So, text alerts will be phased out after this week and alerts will transition to Telegram. The Telegram channels will also provide content exclusive to Telegram. If you are interested in signing up for the Telegram channels (it’s free), please visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/ for all the details. I look forward to the content expansion that Telegram will bring in conjunction with the robot army!
The Financial Market Analytics subscription is now open for signup. You can get all the details at https://tsp.live/fma/. The subscription provides access to my regular Market Commentary, my Watch List of positions I consider trade worthy and coverage of unusual trading activity. Watch List performance since inception in May 2020 is as follows… May: +9.1%, June: +13.6%, July: +63.9%, August: +79.5%, September: +2.4%, October: +17.8%. Average is 31.1% ROI per month.
The paid sports content for this weekend’s TSP Live session (October 31st and Nov 1st) will be real-time LJP Scores for every NCAAF & NFL game, plus any major LJP angles and Sharp Consensus reports! I do not guarantee how many angles will be reported as part of TSP Live. Some TSP Live sessions there may be 4 to 5+ angles reported. Other TSP Live sessions there may only be 1 or 2 angles. Be aware your purchase may only provide you ONE qualifying betting angle over an entire TSP Live session (in this week’s case, the weekend), or it could provide 2,3,4,5 or more qualifying betting angles. I let the action dictate the content, not an arbitrary quota. All a quota does is incentivize forcing angles/reports that aren’t really there. Last year the content everyone wanted for football was the Sharp Consensus. You can probably see why as it is now 7-4 this season with Premium Plays 2-0, Just Missed Premium Plays 2-1 and Other Sharp Consensus at 3-3. As always thank you for your support on the paid content! I do not take advertising. Your paid content purchase supports everything I do at The Sharp Plays, expands the content and technology utilized and supports things important to me. I am grateful for your support! To signup for TSP Live click here or visit TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-live or TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buys (6-1 YTD) – The Early Sharp Buy cashed nice and easy with Rutgers +13.5. Definitely the top feature of the newsletter as it moves to 6-1! What’s on the agenda this week as the Early Sharp Buy? Often teams off a big win, especially against a rival will draw a lot of public attention the next week. It seems to be the case for Kansas St. this week. Kansas St comes off a blowout win against Kansas and is now going up against a tough West Virginia team on the road. The sharp money is not buying the blowout and appears to be expecting Kansas St to be flat this week. The largest sharp buy at this point in the week is West Virginia -3.5 over Kansas St.
Early Algorithm Look (3-5 YTD) – The Early Algorithm Look on an 0-2 run after losing West Virginia/Texas Tech UN55.5. Time to get those back. The Early Algorithm look this week is on Iowa St/Kansas UN52.5. I think the lack of defense this past week by Kansas is propping up this number. The algorithm calculated it at 49. So, I get 3.5 points of value here. Let’s look for a low scoring game and for the Early Algorithm Look to break the 0-2 streak and start a winning one!
My Handicapping (3-5 YTD) – I was on a little run, then I hit a wall with the Texans. I guess I either didn’t give the Packers enough credit… or gave the Texans too much. Who will I curse this week?!?! I am going with a scary angle here. I am going with the Giants +11. It is going to be 41 degrees at kickoff on Monday night. It’ll be a big change of pace for a Tampa team used to the 80’s all day. Yes of course Brady knows how to play in the cold, but the rest of the team not to much. I don’t expect the Giants to pull off the upset, but I think the +11 is a bit high. I think the Giants defense can keep it close, Tampa will have issues with the temperature and the Giants get a nice chunk of extra rest coming into the game and should be prepared. Yes it is still the Giants and Daniel Jones (how did he not score a TD on Thursday for my prop??), but I think the price is a tad high here. I had this one pegged at -9. I’ll take the two points of value and go with the Giants +11 (My goodness!!).
My Two Cents – I was asked this week… what is my favorite thing about The Sharp Plays. To me the answer is easy and it gave me something to get fired up about here in this week’s newsletter. The quality of The Sharp Plays that I am most proud of is the transparency. Most people who put out sports information will hide their records, manipulate their records, only show you the performance during their recent run, the last 30 days, etc. Obviously, these folks do this because if you saw their long term records you would never buy a damn thing from them. Unlike those folks, all my records are on the website… good or bad! I like transparency, because really when you put it all out there, there’s nothing anyone can hold over your head. Even the Robin Hood Club, which made the Titanic look like a fun day… I don’t hide it, you can still find the article breaking it all down on the website. I will even link it in for you right here… “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” – Thomas A. Edison
The biggest failure of mine in the past 11 years providing content on the Twitter account is the Robin Hood Club. Yes, the Robin Hood Club lost 19 units (November 2019 to January 2020)… well, I just made +21.5 units this weekend on parlays in TSP Daily, which is on top of completing a rollover on Friday, which is on top of the TSP Live performance this weekend & YTD, which is on top of +143.5 units of profit from content posted August 2019 to August 2020 as outlined here (https://thesharpplays.com/sharp-action-performance-separate-fact-from-fiction/)… 95%+ of which is posted for FREE! My point is, there will be failures and I will not hide those failures. I will embrace the failures because to admit and accept failure is to show strength. Show me someone who has never failed and I will show you a coward. There will be glorious successes, epic failures at The Sharp Plays, but when the dust settles at the end of another year… I know who still has the goods! 😉
I don’t give a fuck whether you like me or not, whether you join in for the paid content or not, whether you follow or not. I am not here to get people to like me. First and foremost, I do what I do for me (to feed my passion for all topics gambling) and for those who are interested in picking up a tidbit or two on gambling using my decades of experience (success & failure). Those who “get it”, we have a HELL OF A LOT of fun here together. Those who don’t get it end up helping to provide comic relief for the rest of us. I am not here to put on some façade for likes, followers, sales, whatever. As long as there is one person out there who cares about the content (and I know there are thousands), I will be here because I love talking about the action.
People are often worried I will leave because of trolls or hate or whatever, yeah that’s not happening. As I have said many times, I love the trolls and haters. To think little old me can be in someone’s head every day whereby they will follow (and then follow with a burner account after I block them) is flattering. I mean I could give a shit less about them, but they are enamored with me 24/7, following my every post. I have a permanent living space in their heads. Come on, tell me that’s not awesome. LOL!
Anyway, there will be occasions (days/weeks/months) when the content I put out sucks. There will be occasions (days/weeks/months/years) where the content I put out will be the greatest thing you have ever experienced in your betting careers. There will be highs and there will be lows. In the process of riding this roller coaster that is gambling, rest assured that I will put it all out there and be honest… not just in performance either! I thank you for joining me on the journey and giving me a reason to be here. So, to all of you out there reading this now… yes even you trolls who say you don’t follow, but really follow everything… thank you! Thank you for giving me a reason to do it and here’s to a great end to another great year (for sports betting content at least… I can’t help you with COVID ruining your 2020)!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe & healthy out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays