To start, I have to say I was underwhelmed by the sharp volume and action in the futures market this year. Typically, there’s at least one championship-related futures bet that stands out as a “medium” sharp buy. However, this year for MLB, I didn’t see that. Why is that the case? It could be that sharps believe the top three teams (the “chalk”) are most likely to win, but they don’t see enough value in those bets. On the other hand, while there may be value with the long shots, the heavy chalk betting has made it difficult for those bets to attract significant action.
That said, the cleanest buy I’d consider, though small, is the Houston Astros at +2000 to win the World Series.
However, the best futures bet overall, in my opinion, lies in divisional betting. The Atlanta Braves at +110 to win the NL East stands out, and I would classify this as a medium-sized bet, nearing large.
As for regular season win totals, there are two bets I’d consider medium and around a dozen I’d classify as small. The small bets are more of a grind, so I tend not to focus on those for win totals. For the medium-sized bets, here are my picks: Philadelphia OVER 90.5 wins (+100) and Seattle UNDER 85.5 wins (+100).
Hermes Elite A.I. Analysis
I asked Hermes for its highest scoring MLB futures play. It came up with Chicago Cubs +115 to win the NL Central with a score of 37…further showing how immaterial sharp money is this season given the “top Hermes score” is only a 37.
Hermes Pro: https://tsp.live/hermes
Here’s to a great MLB season ahead and more futures winners!