Topics for articles are based on discussions I have on social media, current news & events, your feedback & interests, as well as topics that arise within the sports & betting communities. All my published articles will be posted on this page. I will also announce the article on Twitter & Telegram and send a copy of the article to my mailing list (mailing list signup is on the right side of this page and the Home page (toward the bottom of both pages if you are on the mobile site).

If you have an idea for something you would like me to cover, please use the Contact page and send your thoughts! Thank you!

PINNED ARTICLES:

  • Professional MLB Betting IS NOT for the Faint of Heart! July 27, 2022 12:49 pm EDT - I am going to reference this article at the start and throughout every MLB season as a refresher. If you want to be an MLB bettor, and make money over the season, it is ESSENTIAL…
  • In-Play…a Sharp Bettor’s Best Friend! (Basketball & Football) March 9, 2022 11:50 am EST - The below discussion occurred in TSP Daily on March 7th & 8th, 2022. I felt the strategy discussion was one that would be great to refer to in the future, especially with the tournament coming…
  • The Book Gets What The Book Needs! August 24, 2021 2:27 pm EDT - Over the summer I launched a new bit of content called the "Book Need". The theory behind the Book Need is simple...sportsbooks make an absolute fortune, and despite the popular belief that sports betting is…
  • Ticket & Money Percentages versus the Florida Lottery April 14, 2021 11:19 am EDT - Purpose - To see if there is a statistical difference in performance between random selection and (1) Ticket and money percentages on one side with the line moving in the opposite direction (a.k.a. "reverse line…
  • Designing an Algorithm (A Step by Step Guide) May 1, 2020 11:00 am EDT - Thanks for checking this out! I have held off writing an article on algorithm creation for a few reasons. The main reason is that algorithm design is not something that can be discussed in a…


ALL ARTICLES:

  • Professional MLB Betting IS NOT for the Faint of Heart! July 27, 2022 12:49 pm EDT - I am going to reference this article at the start and throughout every MLB season as a refresher. If you want to be an MLB bettor, and make money over the season, it is ESSENTIAL…
  • Home Run Derby Analysis 2022 July 18, 2022 5:06 pm EDT - It's that time again...HOME RUN DERBY TIME!!! It's always a fun event to mess around with. It's also an event that can be great for analytical assessment. I love breaking down the Home Run Derby…
  • MLB 2022 Futures Report April 6, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - The following was originally posted in the April 1st issue of TSP Daily Briefing... I am going to run through every single futures wager that is getting at least small sharp action. Then I will…
  • In-Play…a Sharp Bettor’s Best Friend! (Basketball & Football) March 9, 2022 11:50 am EST - The below discussion occurred in TSP Daily on March 7th & 8th, 2022. I felt the strategy discussion was one that would be great to refer to in the future, especially with the tournament coming…
  • Not All Sharp Action Is Created Equal February 23, 2022 2:05 am EST - Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. Let’s talk about sharp action and some misconceptions. Every day I am messaged…
  • Following/Fading Line Moves = Losing Proposition February 18, 2022 2:00 pm EST - Article was originally published on January 24th as part of TSP Daily Briefing. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. So, Illinois won but did not cover,…
  • True Professional Betting – The Grind February 16, 2022 2:04 pm EST - Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. The MLB algorithms are currently +15.5 units on the season, and that doesn’t…
  • Parlays – A Strategic Betting Tool February 9, 2022 2:00 pm EST - Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. Let's talk about PARLAYS as a betting tool! I cannot stand when people…
  • To Hedge Or Not To Hedge February 2, 2022 2:00 pm EST - The following article was a “My Two Cents” commentary from this season’s TSP Newsletter. However, I thought it would be good to have it on the website given it is a topic that comes up…
  • Happy New Year & Thank You! December 31, 2021 9:43 am EST - The bots wish you a Happy New Year too!! It has been yet another profitable year for The Sharp Plays content! At current count, the content in 2021 returned a combined +249 units of profit (as…
  • Closing the Books on 2021 & Updates for 2022 December 29, 2021 2:08 pm EST - Good afternoon! As the year winds down I am using some downtime this week to get things ready to begin 2022. There is a lot of clerical work to be done, so might as well…
  • The Benefit of Vig (Book Needs ROI for Book vs. Player) October 20, 2021 10:07 am EDT - Per Merriam-Webster...Vigorish is a charge taken (as by a bookie or a gambling house) on bets I discussed the below topic in Sunday's TSP Daily Briefing and then cut and pasted it into Monday's edition…
  • A 2021-22 NBA Futures Breakdown (Sharp & Algorithmic) October 18, 2021 1:17 pm EDT - The NBA is back tomorrow, so let's take a look at what is seeing sharp buying and what valued the algorithm calculates for the NBA Championship. Here are the top values and sharp futures for…
  • A 2021-22 NHL Futures Breakdown (Sharp & Algorithmic) October 11, 2021 2:08 pm EDT - The NHL is back for a new season and it is time to take a look at what is seeing sharp buying and what valued the algorithm calculates for the Stanley Cup. Here are the…
  • Sharp & Value Buying for NFL & NCAAF Futures August 25, 2021 10:49 am EDT - As I said in a post yesterday, it's going to be a busy week. It's an exciting sort of busy though as we get ready for a new season of football. However, in about a…
  • The Book Gets What The Book Needs! August 24, 2021 2:27 pm EDT - Over the summer I launched a new bit of content called the "Book Need". The theory behind the Book Need is simple...sportsbooks make an absolute fortune, and despite the popular belief that sports betting is…
  • TSP Analytics – Beyond “Best Bets” June 22, 2021 2:30 pm EDT - Yesterday in TSP Daily Briefing I brought up the TSP Live & Early Sharp Buy gauges and their uses. Prior to the gauges I had the addition of the known bettor tracking robots. The KB…
  • Sharp Money vs. Public Money by Day of the Week June 1, 2021 3:11 pm EDT - Sunday is the best performing day for sharp action and for fading the public over the past 11 years! As I start this breakdown, I have to admit, there really is no proven theory as…
  • Ticket & Money Percentages versus the Florida Lottery April 14, 2021 11:19 am EDT - Purpose - To see if there is a statistical difference in performance between random selection and (1) Ticket and money percentages on one side with the line moving in the opposite direction (a.k.a. "reverse line…
  • I’m a Preacher to the Masses… of Flat Betting April 8, 2021 3:42 pm EDT - Dominic Cooper as Jesse Custer - Preacher _ Season 2, Episode 1 - Photo Credit: Skip Bolen/AMC Since the dawn of The Sharp Plays I have preached flat betting, regardless of wager classification or perceived…
  • Sometimes Information is Just Information (Tracking Content) November 19, 2020 3:08 pm EST - This article was originally posted as part of "My Two Cents" in Issue #12 of The Sharp Plays newsletter. It is now being placed in the "Articles" section of the website since it will be…
  • Don’t Be Frankie!! (Following Hot Streaks) October 21, 2020 3:01 pm EDT - I wrote an article in 2019 about the "Sports Information Buffet" (CLICK HERE TO READ). The goal of the article was discussing bettor's FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). No bettor wants to miss out on…
  • The Public Doesn’t Move Lines! Yes, They Do! September 15, 2020 5:00 pm EDT - The below commentary first appears in Week #3 of The Sharp Plays Football Newsletter. However, since it is a topic that comes up all the time, I thought I would give it a spot in…
  • What Is A Rollover? September 1, 2020 11:11 am EDT - How Did Operation Rollover Begin? I get a lot of requests for different bits of content. On Sunday, someone asked me if I ever did a rollover in betting for fun. I guess there was…
  • Sharp Action Performance (Separate Fact from Fiction) August 20, 2020 1:55 pm EDT - Whenever sharp action gets cold, even if just for a few days at a time, the messages on Twitter are awesome! The exasperation in the messages can't help but make you laugh. Oh my God,…
  • A Study on the Little John Protocol & TSP Live June 3, 2020 4:05 pm EDT - How It All Started, First Came Little John... The Human! Last May I decided to create a new algorithm. At the time my content had grown exponentially from what I posted the previous year. I…
  • Designing an Algorithm (A Step by Step Guide) May 1, 2020 11:00 am EDT - Thanks for checking this out! I have held off writing an article on algorithm creation for a few reasons. The main reason is that algorithm design is not something that can be discussed in a…
  • How Do You Bet a Public Market? February 11, 2020 1:36 pm EST - The hot topic the past few weeks is how well the public has been doing across all sports since about the middle of January. As I discussed on Twitter earlier today, I spoke to a…
  • “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” – Thomas A. Edison January 21, 2020 8:11 am EST - Thomas Edison, holder of 1,093 US patents and inventor of the light bulb, telegraph, phonograph, batteries, movie camera, and more. I know there are people out there who have never failed at anything (LOL). However,…
  • Key Numbers for NFL & NCAAF Spreads October 15, 2019 3:16 pm EDT - I was asked for a breakdown of key numbers in the NFL and for NCAA Football. Ask and you shall receive. Data is current to 2019... NCAA Football Margin of VictoryGames% of Games18593.61%27153.01%319718.29%49774.11%56512.74%66892.90%715856.67%85182.18%93521.48%1010074.24%115772.43%124341.83%134441.87%149774.11%153161.33%163591.51%179113.83%185752.42%193531.49%205102.15%218673.65%223191.34%233301.39%247163.01%254311.81%262551.07%273961.67%286412.70%291930.81%302371.00%315252.21%323161.33%331550.65%343361.41%354361.83%361190.50%371580.66%383371.42%391760.74%40930.39%411790.75%422651.11%43680.29%44960.40%451980.83%461040.44%47550.23%481240.52%491510.64%50480.20%51520.22%52920.39%53560.24%54280.12%55550.23%56810.34%57170.07%58340.14%59530.22%60140.06%6180.03%62290.12%63390.16%64140.06%65120.05%66240.10%6750.02%6870.03%69100.04%7080.03%7110.00%7260.03%7350.02%7440.02%7650.02%7730.01%8110.00%8410.00% NFL Football…
  • Sports Betting Drawdowns by Pinnacle Sports October 14, 2019 9:48 am EDT - I am linking this article here to my website because I firmly believe people do not have a good appreciation for what to expect in gambling. People do not manage bankroll properly nor do they…
  • Sharp Betting Head Fakes – How Do They Work, What Are They? October 10, 2019 4:03 pm EDT - Last week there was a lot of demand for an article on head fakes. I was actually surprised a lot of people were not familiar with what it is and how it is used. So,…
  • Managing Bankroll When You Are COLD!!! September 13, 2019 3:55 pm EDT - A few weeks ago I wrote an article about managing bankroll when you are running HOT! You can find the article at (this link). In that article I mention that in the weeks ahead I…
  • NFL Spread vs. ML Value Analysis September 11, 2019 10:02 am EDT - I posted this to Twitter but I wanted to save it to the website so people could refer back to it throughout the season. The below figures include data for over 10 years for the…
  • The Sports Information Buffet – TSP Content Changes & Updates September 9, 2019 11:20 am EDT - We have all gone to a buffet when we were ravenously hungry. You get your plate, you go up to the buffet ready to eat and everything looks good to you. You grab some chicken…
  • Bankroll Management When You’re ON FIRE!!! August 29, 2019 2:21 pm EDT - I preach bankroll management all the time. In my opinion, bankroll management is more important than the bets you make. Proper bankroll management, as followers saw over the past month, can have you turning a…
  • Home Run Derby! July 8, 2019 2:36 pm EDT - Let's see what we can do with the 2019 Home Run Derby. I'll use some advanced analytics in a recipe I created to calculate the win probability for each player in the Derby. First, I…
  • Parlays Aren’t Just For Suckers Anymore June 19, 2019 2:30 pm EDT - A friend passed this article along to me. Said he thought The Sharp Plays audience would enjoy the read. It was one of my favorite articles that he put together so I am happy to…
  • The Sharp Plays Index – Past, Present & Future June 17, 2019 4:28 pm EDT - When I started the index (link to the index is in the website menu or you can click here) it was met with a lot of reservation from those who follow me. I get it,…
  • Why Ticket/Money Percentages Don’t Tell The Whole Story June 6, 2019 9:32 am EDT - Last night for Game 3 between Toronto/Golden State I posted on Twitter that the sharp money was on Toronto and the public was on Golden St. When I posted I received a handful of comments…
  • Why Does The Price Have To Be Right?? June 5, 2019 7:55 am EDT - Often when I have a hot algorithm and a day comes up when there isn't a play, people ask for the "close" plays. People often incorrectly assume that algorithms pick winners and then weight those…
  • Classifying Sharp Action – The Meaning of “X” and “Y” Known Bettors April 19, 2019 8:43 am EDT - When I first started posting big bets (sharp and recreational) on Twitter in January, the goal was just to show a window inside the action that was going on offshore. Starting in early February and…
  • Public/Sharp Concentration – What The Hell Does It Mean?? March 22, 2019 9:08 am EDT - Often when people are assessing what game the public is on they look at ticket or money percentages provided by line services. Sometimes even the books themselves put out this data. The problem with figuring…
  • Algorithm Design Basis For Assessment Of The 1st Inning Yes/No Prop March 19, 2019 2:39 pm EDT - If you read my bio on the website you heard how I used to write programs on my TI-82 graphing calculator in high school. Those programs were my first algorithms. Since then I have written…
  • “Known” Bettors Win All The Time, Right??? March 19, 2019 1:49 pm EDT - I call these "articles" that I'll post on the website but they are more like very extended Twitter posts. I wish I had the time to write journal length articles but at present I do…
  • What’s Behind The “Known” Bettor Plays I Post? March 11, 2019 5:43 pm EDT - The most frequently asked questions I get revolve around what is behind the "known" bettor information I post. I thought why not make that my first article. I am sure there will be more articles…