“The book doesn’t require us to bet everyday, and for the most part, they do not have a minimum wager. I will gladly bet very lightly when I have an edge, but the overall market is a concern. I will gladly pass, multiple days at a time if necessary, when I do not have an edge. I will also gladly press my action aggressively when the market is in my favor and I have the edge. All of which helps to maximize my ROI and ensure I do not bet just because I need action or worse…I am chasing. It’s tough to have discipline in a business that can elicit strong impulses and emotions, but if you can control yourself, you can be a danger to the sportsbooks rather than a danger to your own finances!” – The Sharp Plays
How To Read The Index – The Sharp Plays Index uses a calculation that compares the performance of public money and sharp money wagered in a given day…overall and by sport. The calculation’s solution is then used to visually illustrate who has the momentum (i.e. who is currently winning) for the sport being displayed in the chart. The Index can range from a VERY PUBLIC market at -5 to a VERY SHARP/VALUE trending market at +5. Rarely does the TSP Index go below 0, but if it does it means the public is HOT! So, when the Index is increasing, the sharp/value side is performing well and has the momentum. When the Index is decreasing, the public is performing well and has the momentum. The TSP-I line in the chart below is the cumulative overall performance of sharp & public money in the market combined across all sports (including even minor sports not listed specifically in the Index). The Sharp Plays Index is updated daily.
I know the natural inclination is how the hell could you use financial market technical analysis tools to predict whether the sharps or the public is going on a run. It’s actually not that difficult. On a daily basis in the financial markets, traders are using a stock’s price movements to calculate things like RSI, MACD, etc. in an effort to see where the stock is “likely” going. Technically, performance of the public or sharps in the sports markets can be tracked similarly. At which point analyzing the resulting data to show momentum doesn’t become that hard. It’s complicated, but there’s no magic involved. After years of watching the ebb and flow of sharps and public in this business you start to see correlations. I kept tracking those correlations and then finally developed a tool to map those movements with The Sharp Plays Index.
What is the best way to use the chart? If you are betting a sport and the public is in control (index is declining), you might not want to fade the public. If the sharps are in control (index is increasing), you might want to follow the sharp money. I never advise following the public or fading the sharps, regardless of the chart. It’s a personal decision though for me. You may feel differently.
Click on the league/sport, or the corresponding color in the legend below, will allow you to remove a sport(s) from the chart for easier viewing.