“The book doesn’t require us to bet everyday, and for the most part, they do not have a minimum wager. I will gladly bet very lightly when I have an edge, but the overall market is a concern. I will gladly pass, multiple days at a time if necessary, when I do not have an edge. I will also gladly press my action aggressively when the market is in my favor and I have the edge. All of which helps to maximize my ROI and ensure I do not bet just because I need action or worse, I am chasing. It’s tough to have discipline in a business that can elicit strong impulses and emotions, but if you can control yourself, you can be a danger to the sportsbooks rather than a danger to your own finances!” – The Sharp Plays
How To Read The Index v2.0 – The Sharp Plays Index uses a calculation which compares the performance of public money and sharp money wagered in a given day, both overall and by sport. The calculation’s solution is then used to visually illustrate who has the momentum (i.e. who is currently winning) for the sport being displayed in the chart. The Index can range from VERY PUBLIC at -5 to VERY SHARP/VALUE at +5. So, when the Index is above 0 and increasing, the sharp/value side is in control. When the Index is below 0 and decreasing, the public is in control. The TSP-I line in the chart above is the cumulative overall performance of sharp & public money in the market combined across all sports. The Index is updated every morning based on the previous day’s action.
I know the natural inclination is how the hell could you use financial market technical analysis tools to predict whether the sharps or public are going on a run. It’s actually not that difficult. In technical analysis for stocks, you use calculations off a stock’s price movements to calculate things like RSI, MACD, etc. in an effort to see where the stock is going. Technically, performance of the public or sharps in the sports markets can be tracked similarly. Then analyzing the resulting data to show momentum doesn’t become that hard. It’s complicated but there’s no magic involved. After years of watching the ebb and flow of sharps and public in this business you start to see correlations. I kept tracking those correlations and then finally developed a tool to map those movements with The Sharp Plays Index. It is early in the testing process. I am currently building a sample size but I must say, I am pleased with the results and predictive information the index has provided thus far! How best to use the chart? If you are betting a sport and the public is in control, you might not want to fade the public. If the sharps are in control, you might want to follow the sharp money. I never advise following the public or fading the sharps regardless of the chart. It’s a personal decision though for me. You may feel differently.
Click on the league/sport, or the corresponding color in the legend under the chart, to remove a sport(s) from the chart for easier viewing.
TSP Index Values