Some of these questions are redundant, but then again, often so are the questions sent in. So, I posted the most frequent questions, in all their forms, and my answers below…
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) –
What are public concentrations?
ANSWER: Simple, these are the wagers that bettors rated as “recreational” (i.e. public) are betting HEAVY for that particular day.
Should I fade public concentrations?
ANSWER: No, not blindly at least. The purpose of covering public concentrations is because it is important to know where the public is heaviest. Why? Wagers the public is heavy on will rarely have any value in them. So, if you know the public concentrations then you know the wagers with little to no value…and might want to avoid them at a minimum. Granted wagers with zero or negative value can win…they win all the time. It’s just not a good policy to constantly be betting wagers with zero or negative value.
What is a Book Need?
ANSWER: A Book Need is simply a wager the book would like to win because it would bring a high profit result for the book. So, it typically means there is a lot of money on the other side of the wager. The money can be sharp, public or a combination of both. Other tools like Hermes or Oddsmaker’s Report can help clarify if it is major sharp money…something you might not want to fade.
What is TSP Live?
TSP Live is the paid sports content subscription offered. You can get all the details on TSP Live by visiting TSP.Live/tsp-live.
For TSP Live related Frequently Asked Questions, visit TSP.Live/frequently-asked-questions/.
What is a “known” bettor?
ANSWER: A “known” bettor is someone considered/rated sharp by the sportsbook.
What is the Oddsmaker’s Report?
ANSWER: The Oddsmaker’s Report will cover comments and messages between the traders at one global sportsbook. The goal being to give you a look at the market action from the book’s perspective. For further details, visit TheSharpPlays.com/oddsmakers-report/.
What is the FMA (Financial Market Analytics)?
ANSWER: The Financial Market Analytics is a paid content subscription covering the financial markets (stocks and options trading). For further details visit TSP.Live/fma/.
What if my line is different from what you post?
ANSWER: First, it is always advised that you to shop around for the best line possible. Anything but the optimal line always opens the risk of a loss, even with just a half a point difference on a spread or total. However, from a value calculation standpoint…when playing a moneyline, the play is typically good up to a 20 cent difference from what is posted. If playing a point spread or a total, you never want to play a line whereby the line posted could win or push and you would lose. Worst case, you want to accept a line that would push if the line posted won. So, if Tampa Bay -5.5 was posted as an angle, you could accept -6 (the -5.5 would win, you would push on -6). If Tampa Bay -5.5 is posted and you can only get -6.5…that’s a pass!
What book do the prices/lines come from?
ANSWER: If reporting sharp action, the line the sharp money is betting regardless of whether the line is still available will be posted. The goal for sharp money coverage is to let you know the line they bet so you can see how that compares to the current market. Often a consensus line among top books is used because almost every bettor should be able to access it at some book.
Where does your information come from? How do you get your information? Why do you get the information? Who is this “known” bettor for such and such play?
ANSWER TO ALL THOSE QUESTIONS: Anyone who knows the offshore betting industry knows that maintaining the ultimate level of informational security is the standard procedure for this type of in-depth data. If the books wanted to be connected to the information The Sharp Plays provides, they would put it out themselves. Offshore books like anonymity and privacy in their financial and client dealings. Information on who a customer is, where they live, what they do for a living, etc. is protected for the customer’s privacy as well. The Sharp Plays has first hand direct access to data from multiple shops and may use that data with the caveat that the identity of the book, bettor or any other identifying or sensitive information is not released publicly.
I like this team or this bet, what do you think? I need a bailout, what do you have? What’s the Best Bet today? Is there sharp buying on ______________________?
ANSWER: Unfortunately, it is not possible to provide individualized advice on specific games. The Sharp Plays’s philosophy is there is no such thing as a “bailout” or “Best Bet” play. Not to mention, there would never have enough time in the day to address all the requests received on these questions daily. It is also not possible to provide specific advice for your personal betting. If you send a list of games or a bet you are thinking about and ask for an assessment, you will be wished good luck. The Sharp Plays information is not intended to put you on or off a wager, but to be a part of your overall handicapping.
Thanks so much for your information! Do you accept gratuities?
ANSWER: The Sharp Plays offers paid content in the form of TSP Live and the Financial Market Analytics, and your support through those subscriptions is appreciated! Your support is what makes everything The Sharp Plays work…from content to technology…free & paid, so thank you for your generosity!
Do you accept advertising?
ANSWER: No, but may give a shout out to people or companies The Sharp Plays partners with or simply people/businesses with a personal connection. There may also be shout outs as a way to thank a business or individual for something they assisted on or simply because what they are doing is interesting. The Sharp Plays will not accept money for promotion nor marketing of any product, service, etc. It is comical when websites that purport to help bettors, advertise sportsbooks. Where does their loyalty lie? In helping you beat the books, or helping the books to beat you because it is the books who pay their bills?!?
How can I get access to the sharp/public data you have access to?
ANSWER: Work with a sportsbook. The Sharp Plays does not get information from line service providers, from Twitter, from apps or from websites. The Sharp Plays information is direct from the sportsbooks. It is not for sale nor is it publicly available through some other provider. There is no way for you to get access aside from working for a book yourself and being granted access to their data. If you are following ticket and money percentages and think that information is the same thing, I would advise you to give a read to the article…”Why Ticket/Money Percentages Don’t Tell The Whole Story“.
Who is Biff, Mr. Poison, etc.?
ANSWER: All of the above are bettors are people who bet offshore with the books for which The Sharp Plays is connected. The Sharp Plays is allowed to post the information provided The Sharp Plays does not discuss any personal details of the individual or the book. Some bettors, like those listed above, are reported because they are uniquely bad in their long-term ROI and winning percentage. When Mr. Poison was on his epic losing streak in 2019, there were many “sightings” of Mr. Poison and many people claimed they knew who he was. However, aside from The Sharp Plays and the DOT (Director of Trading) at the book where he bets, nobody knows these bettors real identities.
If you have a question about a bet type, wager, team, line, books, etc….
Sometimes the fastest response you can get will come from simply commenting on the tweet that created your question. Often someone in the thread or following me will respond to your question a lot faster.
So, if I follow what is posted then I will just make a ton of money gambling and quit my job in a couple weeks?
ANSWER: Roughly 98% of casual bettors have no grasp on betting realities. No offense. Most casual bettors think a sharp player must hit 60-65%+ of their bets to be extremely profitable. Such a belief is why the books make a ton of money. Most bettors were sold a dream of easy money and an amazing lifestyle that can be achieved through gambling. Gamblers fall in love with that dream and 99% end up chasing it their entire life and NEVER come close to obtaining it. There is no sharp bettor who hits 60%+ on their plays over the long term. For short stretches like a few weeks or a couple months, absolutely it can happen. However, over the long term (years), the best sharps I have ever witnessed hit 56-57% and that’s a tiny group. The best I ever saw over a period of years was a sharp group that hit 58%…and that 58% is LEGENDARY STATUS. As “low” as a 58% win percentage may seem to some, your edge against the house (assuming a high 10% vig) is +10.7%. If we are talking reduced juice, the 10.7% ROI only increases! What that means is for every dollar you put into action, you get 10.7 cents back. What this further means is if you are a legend hitting 58% long term, betting 200 games at $1100 per game ($220,000 in action) then you are expected to get a return of $23,540. That is AMAZING! When you have a 10.7% edge against the house… you are printing money! What do these figures look like for win percentages of 55%, 56%, 57%? Here you go…
55% = 5.0% means $220K in action returns $11.0K
56% = 6.9% means $220K in action returns $15.2K
57% = 8.8% means $220K in action returns $19.4K
Back to the point of this question. You don’t need to hit 60% or better to make a fortune gambling. Someone betting $1,000 per game and 3-5 games per day, over the course of the year can collect a profit of $100,375 hitting “only” 55%.
Most casual gamblers have no clue how to manage their bankrolls! For the 4-5 weeks prior to posting this question on here on the FAQ page, the “known” bettor action posted on Twitter was WHITE HOT! It was an excellent run which finished on March 17th, 2019 with a great Sunday performance. From March 18th through the 22nd, “known” bettor action posted had 11 wins and 13 losses. Not exactly an awful run, however it was a losing run. Despite only two net losses in this five day period, there were followers on Twitter who are beside themselves at the losses. Beside themselves at an 11-13 record after “known” bettor action printed money for weeks from February 1st through to March 17th. It is for this reason that even when a casual gambler gets good information, they don’t use it properly. Even if you didn’t experience that 4-5 week white hot run, but you just started following on Monday the 18th, an 11-13 record should not have you on the verge of bankruptcy. If it does, you have SEVERE bankroll management issues…no joke either. If following an 11-13 record has destroyed you, there is little even the sharpest bettor can do to help you. It is why you are advised to use the information/content posted as a part of your handicapping…not as a substitute for your handicapping. Every gambler can handle a winning streak, few gamblers can handle a losing streak…even a tiny one. The losing streak and your management of it is what separates a sharp bettor from a casual bettor. Even the 58% legendary sharp bettors out there have had runs where they hit only 10, 20, 30, 40% of their bets. The sharps just know how to manage it. They know how to maximize their hot runs and minimize damage when they will undoubtedly run cold. You want to become a sharp? The first key is learning to bet disciplined and to manage your bankroll. The next key is to understand that no matter how good you are, you are going to have your share of bad/cold runs too…and manage your emotions during them. Sharps realize their hot streaks will always be longer and better than what they give back during the cold runs. Patience young grasshopper!
So, to be a winning gambling requires a grasp of betting reality. Don’t expect to hit 60% or better. Be happy hitting 55% and realize that makes you a damn good pro! Realize that sports betting for income is not easy. You must be disciplined because when the cold streaks come…and they will ALWAYS come…you can’t blow yourself up by being overly emotional or losing control of your bankroll management. If you do, you time as a “pro” will be very short lived!
If you have questions, please submit them through the Contact page here on the website.
All legitimate inquiries will receive a reply…eventually. There is an answering service to sort The Sharp Plays email. The service is a human that responds to customer service needs, deletes spam and the vast array of hater mail that arrives daily. Everything else is set aside and it can take up to 48-72 hours for a reply. Paid content inquiries are handled usually within 1-3 hours during normal business hours. Thanks for your understanding!