Some of these questions are redundant, but then again, often so are the questions sent in. So, I posted the most frequent questions, in all their forms, and my answers below…
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) –
What are public concentrations?
ANSWER: Simple, these are the wagers that bettors rated as “recreational” (i.e. public) are betting HEAVY for that particular day.
Should I fade public concentrations?
ANSWER: No, not blindly at least. The purpose of covering public concentrations is because it is important to know where the public is heaviest. Why? Wagers the public is heavy on will rarely have any value in them. So, if you know the public concentrations then you know the wagers with little to no value…and might want to avoid them at a minimum. Granted wagers with zero or negative value can win…they win all the time. It’s just not a good policy to constantly be betting wagers with zero or negative value.
What is a Book Need?
ANSWER: A Book Need is simply a wager the book would like to win because it would bring a high profit result for the book. So, it typically means there is a lot of money on the other side of the wager. The money can be sharp, public or a combination of both. Other tools like Hermes or Oddsmaker’s Report can help clarify if it is major sharp money…something you might not want to fade.
What is TSP Live?
TSP Live is the paid sports content subscription I offer. You can get all the details on TSP Live by visiting TSP.Live/tsp-live.
For TSP Live related Frequently Asked Questions, visit TSP.Live/frequently-asked-questions/.
What is a “known” bettor?
ANSWER: A “known” bettor is someone considered/rated sharp by the sportsbook.
What is the Oddsmaker’s Report?
ANSWER: The Oddsmaker’s Report will cover comments and messages between the traders at one global sportsbook. The goal being to give you a look at the market action from the book’s perspective. For further details, visit TheSharpPlays.com/oddsmakers-report/.
What is the FMA (Financial Market Analytics)?
ANSWER: The Financial Market Analytics is a paid content subscription covering the financial markets (stocks and options trading). For further details visit TSP.Live/fma/.
What if my line is different from what you post for one of your algorithms?
ANSWER: First, I always advise you to shop around for the best line possible. Anything but the optimal line always opens the risk of a loss, even with just a half a point difference on a spread or total. However, from a value calculation standpoint…when playing a moneyline, the play is typically good up to a 20 cent difference from what I post. If playing a point spread or a total, you never want to play a line whereby the line I post could win or push and you would lose. Worst case, you want to accept a line that would push if the line I posted won. So, if I post Tampa Bay -5.5, you could accept -6 (I would win, you would push). If I post Tampa Bay -5.5 and you can only get -6.5…that’s a pass!
What sports do you have algorithms on?
ANSWER: I have developed over 500 different algorithms over the past 20 years. Currently, I have just over 200 that I consider valid for current use. I have algorithms covering various angles in all the major sports: football (soccer), American football (NFL/NCAA), basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, golf, auto racing, horse racing, boxing, MMA, cricket, rugby, volleyball among several others including special events like the Home Run Derby. I also have algorithms I have designed for the financial markets, voting predictions and a lot more. I love finding ways to use math to predict future events, whether sports related or not.
What book do you get your lines from?
ANSWER: If I am reporting sharp action, I will use the line the sharp money is betting regardless of whether the line is still available. My goal for sharp money coverage is to let you know the line they bet so you can see how that compares to the current market. When I have an algorithm play I will primarily use Pinnacle, Bookmaker/CRIS, BetOnline. Those are my top 3 options for line shopping and wager offerings. I will typically use the best line out of the three because almost every bettor should be able to access at least two, if not all three of them.
What book do these figures come from? Where does your information come from? How do you get your information? Why do you get the information? Who is this “known” bettor for such and such play?
ANSWER TO ALL THOSE QUESTIONS: No offense, I do not answer any of those questions nor questions asking for identifying information of the book or the bettors. Anyone who knows the offshore betting industry knows this is the standard procedure for this type of in-depth data. If the books wanted to be connected to the information I provide, they would put it out themselves. Offshore books like anonymity and privacy in their financial and client dealings. Information on who a customer is, where they live, what they do for a living, etc. is protected for the customer’s privacy as well. I have first hand direct access to data from multiple shops and may use that data with the caveat that I do not identify the book, bettor or provide any other identifying or sensitive information. Fine by me. If you are reading this and that isn’t good enough, sorry, don’t follow me…I’ll live.
Why do you spend the time to do this?
ANSWER: Read the About and you will see that the business of betting has been in my blood for a long time. I have a passion for following and discussing the markets and the action. Social media and Telegram, along with TheSharpPlays.com and TSP.Live allow me to have an enjoyable hobby doing it. The conversations that develop from the things I post on Twitter are educational and entertaining to me as well. Laughing with all of you about Mr. Poison, for example, is quite enjoyable. I am the type of person who needs a project. I love using mathematics to solve life’s little mysteries. Developing an algorithm to assess the 1st Inning Yes/No Run Scored prop came about 100% because of my interactions on Twitter. The Sharp Plays Betting Index is another idea I came upon because of my Twitter interaction. In the end, I share my time & information in the hopes it helps you in your wagering. When it does, many will kindly support through their paid content subscription purchases. I sincerely appreciate the support and continuing a mutually beneficial relationship with all of you! Your support allows me to expand the content I can offer to you which will hopefully help to expand your betting profits in return. Thank You for that support!
I like this team or this bet, what do you think? I need a bailout, what do you have for me? What’s your Best Bet today? Is there sharp buying on ______________________?
ANSWER: Unfortunately, I do not provide individualized advice on specific games. I also do not believe in the idea of a “bailout” or “Best Bet” play. Not to mention, I simply would never have enough time in the day to address all the requests I get on these questions daily. Also, I do not provide specific advice for your personal betting. If you send me a list of games or a bet you are thinking about and ask me what I think, I’ll tell you good luck. I do not want to talk you into or out of a bet…that’s up to you. I will post information I have that I find of value, and which you can use in your handicapping. My posts are not intended to put you on or off a wager, but to be a part of your overall handicapping.
I wanted to hire you to write an algorithm for something I am working on. Would you be willing to do it?
ANSWER: I truly appreciate you trusting in me with your project! However, I am under contract with a company and may not work with anyone else on algorithms while the contract is active. To avoid any conflict of interest issues, I would not, and in some ways cannot accept another project. I do appreciate your interest and trust in looking to me to handle a project for you!
I want to purchase your information. How much?
ANSWER: While I do have paid content in the form of TSP Live, I have ABSOLUTELY ZERO interest in being some sort of personal betting consultant, being a part of your betting group or other such endeavor. I appreciate the offer, but it is just too much commitment, time, headache and hassle. I thankfully do not need to nor want to engage in the hustle at this point.
Thanks so much for your information! Do you accept gratuities?
ANSWER: People regularly email and message me offering to send me monetary “tips” as a thank you for the profits they gained using the information I post/tweet. I am honored and flattered for you to ask. I thank you for the support! Personally, I prefer to provide you something special in exchange for your support. So, I offer paid content in the form of TSP Live and the Financial Market Analytics, and I appreciate your support through those subscriptions! Your support is what makes everything The Sharp Plays work…from content to technology…free & paid, so thank you for your generosity!
Do you accept advertising?
ANSWER: No, it’s a hassle I do not want to engage in. However, I may give a shout out to people or companies I partner with or simply people/businesses I like personally. I also like to give a shout out as a thank you for something someone assisted me on or simply because I like what they are doing. I will not accept money for promotion nor marketing of any product, service, etc. I also find it comical when websites that purport to help bettors, advertise sportsbooks. Where does their loyalty lie? In helping you beat the books, or helping the books to beat you because it is the books who pay their bills?!?
How can I get access to the sharp/public data you have access to?
ANSWER: Work with a sportsbook. I do not get my information from line service providers, from Twitter, from apps or from websites. My information is direct from the databases of the sportsbooks I work with. It is not for sale nor is it publicly available through some other provider. There is no way for you to get access aside from working for a book yourself and being granted access to their data. If you are following ticket and money percentages and think that information is the same thing, I would advise you to give a read to my article, “Why Ticket/Money Percentages Don’t Tell The Whole Story“.
Who is Mr. Freeze, Biff, Mr. Poison, etc.?
ANSWER: All of the above are bettors who bet offshore with the books I work with and I post their action. I post their action because they are uniquely bad in their long-term ROI and winning percentage. Sometimes I post because I find it interesting or entertaining. To my knowledge, they are not on Twitter nor otherwise publicly available. When Mr. Poison was on his epic losing streak in 2019, there were many “sightings” of Mr. Poison and many people claimed they knew who he was. However, aside from myself and the DOT (Director of Trading) at the book where he bets, nobody knows these bettors real identities.
If you have a question about a bet type, wager, team, line, books, etc….
Sometimes the fastest response you can get will come from simply commenting on the tweet that created your question. Often someone in the thread or following me will respond to your question a lot faster than I will be able.
So, if I follow you I will just make a ton of money gambling and quit my job in a couple weeks?
ANSWER: I can say that 98% of casual bettors have no grasp on betting realities. No offense. Most casual bettors think a sharp player must hit 60-65%+ of their bets to be extremely profitable. Such a belief is why the books make a ton of money. Most bettors were sold a dream of easy money and an amazing lifestyle that can be achieved through gambling. Gamblers fall in love with that dream and 99% end up chasing it their entire life and NEVER come close to obtaining it. There is no sharp bettor who hits 60%+ on their plays over the long term. For short stretches like a few weeks or a couple months, absolutely it can happen. However, over the long term (years), the best sharps I have ever witnessed hit 56-57% and that’s a tiny group. The best I ever saw over a period of years was a sharp group that hit 58%…and that 58% is LEGENDARY STATUS. As “low” as a 58% win percentage may seem to some, your edge against the house (assuming a high 10% vig) is +10.7%. If we are talking reduced juice, the 10.7% ROI only increases! What that means is for every dollar you put into action, you get 10.7 cents back. What this further means is if you are a legend hitting 58% long term, betting 200 games at $1100 per game ($220,000 in action) then you are expected to get a return of $23,540. That is AMAZING! When you have a 10.7% edge against the house… you are printing money! What do these figures look like for win percentages of 55%, 56%, 57%? Here you go…
55% = 5.0% means $220K in action returns $11.0K
56% = 6.9% means $220K in action returns $15.2K
57% = 8.8% means $220K in action returns $19.4K
Back to the point of this question. You don’t need to hit 60% or better to make a fortune gambling. Someone betting $1,000 per game and 3-5 games per day, over the course of the year can collect a profit of $100,375 hitting “only” 55%.
Most casual gamblers have no clue how to manage their bankrolls! I’ll give you an example…for the 4-5 weeks prior to posting this question on my FAQ page, the “known” bettor action I posted on Twitter was WHITE HOT! It was an excellent run which finished on March 17th, 2019 with a great Sunday performance. From March 18th through the 22nd, “known” bettor action that I posted had 11 wins and 13 losses. Not exactly an awful run, however it was a losing run. Despite only two net losses in this five day period, there were followers I saw on Twitter who are beside themselves at the losses. Beside themselves at an 11-13 record after “known” bettor action printed money for weeks from February 1st through to March 17th. It is for this reason that even when a casual gambler gets good information, they don’t use it properly. Even if you didn’t experience that 4-5 week white hot run, but you just started following on Monday the 18th, an 11-13 record should not have you on the verge of bankruptcy. If it does, you have SEVERE bankroll management issues. I don’t mean that as a joke either. If following an 11-13 record has destroyed you, there is little even the sharpest bettor can do to help you. It is why I advise you to use the information/content I post as a part of your handicapping…not as a substitute for your handicapping. Every gambler can handle a winning streak, few gamblers can handle a losing streak…even a tiny one. The losing streak and your management of it is what separates a sharp bettor from a casual bettor. Even the 58% legendary sharp bettor I talk about had runs where they hit only 10, 20, 30, 40% of their bets. The sharps just know how to manage it. They know how to maximize their hot runs and minimize damage when they will undoubtedly run cold. You want to become a sharp? The first key is learning to bet disciplined and to manage your bankroll. The next key is to understand that no matter how good you are, you are going to have your share of bad/cold runs too…and manage your emotions during them. Sharps realize their hot streaks will always be longer and better than what they give back during the cold runs. Patience young grasshopper!
So, to be a winning gambling requires a grasp of betting reality. Don’t expect to hit 60% or better. Be happy hitting 55% and realize that makes you a damn good pro! Realize that sports betting for income is not easy. You must be disciplined because when the cold streaks come…and they will ALWAYS come…you can’t blow yourself up by being overly emotional or losing control of your bankroll management. If you do, you time as a “pro” will be very short lived!
If you have questions, please submit them to me on through the Contact page here on the website.
I do respond to legitimate inquiries…eventually. I also use an answering service to sort my email. The service is a human that responds to customer service needs, deletes spam and the vast array of hater mail that arrives daily. Everything else is set aside for me to address. I usually review those messages once or twice a day. However, depending on my schedule it can take up to 48-72 hours for me to reply. Paid content inquiries are handled by myself or the answering service and usually within 1-3 hours during normal business hours. Thanks for your understanding!