Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference.
The MLB algorithms are currently +15.5 units on the season, and that doesn’t include counting the 1st Inning v2 fade (I know some don’t play it)…which would only increase the +15.5 unit performance. However, to get to that solid 15.5 unit return, do you realize that at one point the algorithms were down over -12 units on the season (not counting v2 fade)?? Yes, that means that since that time, the MLB algorithms had a +27.5 unit swing (again, not counting the v2 fade…which boosts it even more)!! Cool…so what’s the point?
People come into a new season or strategy with a perception that if they are using a +EV strategy that they will start a season at +0.0 units and slowly grind profits from start to finish. A nice and easy path to profitability with little pain and few big swings along the way. LOL! Here’s a little secret…gambling RARELY works out that way. Sometimes you get off to a big run and find yourself +15 units, then you lose it all and then some to be at -5 units overall, then you hit another run to get you back to +13 units and then you finish with a flat run grinding down 2 units…to end the season with a nice +11 units. For perspective…anything positive for a season is automatically better than what 80-85% of bettors achieved for that same season. I love when people comment…you “only” won 5 units on this or that angle for the season. Yes, sounds pathetic until you realize the person making the comment and 85% of the other bettors out there actually performed worse than +5 units for that same season…because they all lost money. Well, except anyone involved in sports gambling on Twitter…they all win money. LOL! I digress!
Anyway, earning a +11 unit return over the course of a season sounds simple and based on where you ended people just assume it was a simple grind to profit! Start at 0 and ended at +11 units…NICE! However, those who actually wagered on that +EV angle were on more of a high speed rollercoaster than a casual walk up the hill. How many people reading this would have given up on the sample angle (paragraph above) when it gave back 20 units to go from +15 units to -5 units at one point??? It’s OK, you aren’t alone…there would be a lot of people quitting with you. You know why? When the MLB algorithms were down over -12 units I can’t tell you how many trolls and haters were reveling in it and how many followers were whining about the performance. Then I held the algorithms back in June as that’s a month they struggle (something I am working to assess this offseason). I then brought the algorithms back in July and BINGO…she got rolling and hasn’t stopped since then. In the end and regardless of the World Series results it will be another very profitable MLB season for the algorithms. If they have no further angles, you will have won +15.5 units this season! Awesome!! However, was the journey to those profits that casual walk in the park, or world’s fastest and highest rollercoaster with a lot of whiplash, crying and vomit along the way? Yeah it was the latter and plenty of bettors were crying asking to get off the ride.
Rarely is anything in gambling a straight line from zero to profit. It’s usually a line with sharp and fast moves up and down along the way…often crossing the zero line a few times before the ride is over. Hell, I had one football season back in 2016 where I lost in September, in October, in November and then had an EPIC December to finish with a profit similar to the previous season’s at +41 units. Thank you NCAA bowls 2016!!! The sharp content was killing games, sweeping sides and totals of some bowls and performing well in NFL too. It was awesome and if I gave up when I was slightly negative then I would have ended with a loss that season and never been there for the profit. Sure, nobody thinks gambling can flow that way with three straight losing months and then a MASSIVE profit month…but that’s how it goes sometimes. Once again, look at the MLB algorithms. If I told you back in May they would finish with 15 units of profit…you would have said I was an idiot…yet here we are! Point being, gambling takes work, discipline and it takes fortitude to weather all the runs. It also requires you to understand that betting profits are achieved over the long term and can come in wild ways…rarely is it a 45 degree angle on the profit chart from “0” to profit. Weathering the good runs is easy, anyone can handle that part. Managing your emotions in the bad runs, and having the fortitude to see your plan through is what separates the Pro’s from the Joe’s!
One last example? Who remembers the cold run just this year from end of March to mid-April?? It was an AWFUL run, but in the end and barring losing every bit of content between now and the end of the year…2021 will end another profitable year of content…and it won’t be close. There were lots of winning weeks, lots of losing weeks…winning months and losing months. In the end, if you rode the waves, there were some incredible highs and some frustrating lows. However, if you didn’t chicken out and you had a good bankroll management plan to weather the runs…you should be sitting on a decent profit for your blood, sweat and tears.
Here’s another twist to this topic. Not only do you rarely go from 0 to profit in a straight line, but sometimes you do it in a way you least expected. Back in 2009, my ENTIRE profit for the football season was derived from exotics (parlays and teasers). Yes, somehow on a season I killed it with exotics, I also lost decently on straight bets. It was something like -18 units on straight bets and +51 units on exotics (I remember the exotic profits exactly, but straights were down 15-20 or so…call it -18 units). So, there’s an example of a football season whereby if you look at the final number…a +33 unit profit…you say that’s awesome!! However, it was quite an unconventional way to get there.
I bring this up because this past week was the first rough week of the football season. Gamblers and their goldfish memory will always forget the good times and just remember the most immediate bad run. Forgetting that we almost made it to November without a clunker of a weekend. However, don’t take your eye off the prize just because of one bad weekend or even two or three. You never know how the gambling profits will come each season. I start Week 0 of the football season knowing that when I watch the final seconds tick down during the Super Bowl that I will likely be sitting on some nice gambling profits from the football season. I don’t know how much, but I am confident profits will be there. I also know that it will likely have been a hell of a ride to get to that point. So, I just plan to go in, stay the course, ride the waves, bet smart and keep emotion out of things. Don’t go into a season with an expectation of how you will achieve a profit. Profit is RARELY achieved in an easy and orderly fashion…or according to a plan you set. As soon as you think you know how it will go…Lady Luck will stick her finger all the way up your ass and show you who’s in charge! Everyone thinks they can be a professional bettor and ride the waves…however when you are out in the deep water…few gamblers have the toughness and mental fortitude to make it back to shore. Most give up. Swim you big baby and stop whining! Who the hell told you this business was easy and profits come in a straight line?!? I was once a class A degenerate myself when I started out gambling. If I can make it to shore…so can you!! Not to mention, if you are one of the few souls to make it back to shore, there is a pretty good prize waiting for you!
Good luck in your action!