I wanted to discuss what +EV, -EV and 0EV means for wagering purposes. These labels now appear on any content report that gets posted to Twitter and Telegram. On Saturday (September 3rd, 2022), Bowling Green was posted as a 0EV alert…meaning the current +23.5 pregame price was considered “fair value” by the algorithm. “Fair value” means there is no edge either way at that price. Why post it if it is 0EV?
First, let’s discuss what these labels mean?
“+EV” is short for positive expected value. A positive expected value means that angles label +EV have value at the current price and will generate a long-term profit when used for wagering.
“0EV” is short for neutral expected value. A neutral expected value means that angles of this type show no value at the current price and will likely lose vig over the long-term.
“-EV” is short for negative expected value. A negative expected value means that angles of this type show negative value at the current price and will likely lose substantial money over the long term.
So, back to the main question, why post Bowling Green if the angle is 0EV pregame? For starters, a lot of people chase steam. People will see that a team like Bowling Green opened at +31.5 and then see the current price is +23.5. The immediate thought in their head is “the public doesn’t move prices that much…that’s a big sharp move and I want to be part of it.” Well, the bettor in the previous sentence is correct about a few things…it is a sharp move and it’s not a bad idea to want to be a part of a sharp move…but not at +23.5 when the opening line was +31.5…8 points away! There’s “no value” (i.e. 0EV) at that price and it is likely very close to -EV (negative value) within the algorithm. So, if a bettor was out there looking at that Bowling Green steam and thinking they should bet Bowling Green, the alert will hopefully hold them off by letting them know Bowling Green has ZERO value at the current pregame price.
As I like to emphasize with my content…it’s not about blind following or fading. The vast majority of The Sharp Plays content is about INFORMING you, as a bettor, of the action going on in the markets. It’s then up to you what YOU do with it.
Past TSP coverage has shown that knowing something is a sharp move and then waiting for a much better price in-play than what was available pregame has proven VERY effective. I outlined such a strategy here and there on Twitter in February to great success using sharp reports and “known” bettor content. Due to that success I expanded in-play strategy coverage in March TSP Live and the strategy absolutely killed it. Hitting over 73% for the entire MONTH! Since then I have further expanded in-play coverage with the release of my calculated target cushions in a variety of sports (https://tsp.live/tsp-live-in-play-strategy-targets/) and the new TSP Live In-Play Analytic has seen great success. The In-Play Analytic isn’t even a month old (launched August 11th) and as of today (September 7th, 2022) it is +9.8 units for +19.6% ROI!! Yeah, in-play can be a great weapon in your arsenal. Don’t discount or disregard it!
So yes, seeing a 0EV angle pregame is pretty useless pregame…but we are not limited to just pregame betting as a bettor…we have in-play! However, if the 0EV or -EV alert does nothing but keep you away from sharp buys that have no value pregame…it’s a great tool! If we can turn these 0EV and -EV pregame angles into values using the listed in-play target, and cash long-term…well, now there’s a bonus!
A “+EV” angle/report that gets posted means based on TSP algorithms the angle listed is a value pregame at the current price and would be a value in-play if the target price listed were also achieved.
Question: TSP…if a sharp buy is showing as -EV pregame…wouldn’t that make the opposite side of the wager +EV pregame?? The answer is often, but not always. At certain prices, especially when dealing with moneylines…BOTH SIDES can be -EV. The book’s goal is to make both sides of a wager -EV. If both sides are -EV then nobody would win long-term…just like playing craps, baccarat or slots.
Let’s say Tampa +6 over Green Bay is reported as a sharp buy, but at the current +6 price we see Tampa as -EV in the alert. The report further shows an in-play target price of +14.5.
Our options to wager on this game with the -EV pregame angle on Tampa would be to…
1) Utilize sharp fade in-play pricing calculations (https://tsp.live/tsp-live-in-play-strategy-targets/) to bet Green Bay.
2) Simply wait for the in-play target price of Tampa +14.5 and gain Tampa value that way.
Otherwise that’s it. We have nothing to do pregame because Tampa is -EV. If Green Bay were +EV and a sharp buy hit it, then that sharp buy will be reported to let you know. Assuming no sharp buy alert came out for Green Bay, there is nothing to do pregame in the above situation. The same would be the case if Tampa were labeled 0EV. You have nothing to do pregame, but could look to take the sharp fade in-play or the in-play target on Tampa to setup a +EV wager.
So, in the case of the -EV and 0EV reported angles…nothing to do pregame. However, when it comes to in-play, you can look to fade, follow or sometimes you can do both in-play….setting up a SWEET middle! Of course you can also see a -EV or 0EV angle and maybe all it does is keep you away from chasing the steam you saw in that game…and nothing more. In that way helping you to save money. Avoiding a loss is almost as good as grabbing a win!
In the case of the -EV and 0EV reported angles…nothing to do pregame. However, when it comes to in-play, you can look to fade, follow, or sometimes you can do both in-play….setting up a SWEET middle! Of course, you can also see a -EV or 0EV angle and maybe all it does is keep you away from chasing the steam you saw in that game…and nothing more. In that way helping you to save money. Avoiding a loss is almost as good as grabbing a win! If you wonder why a 0EV or -EV report gets posted to Twitter or Telegram pregame, realize there is still a font of information within such a report. Don’t miss the forest for the trees when betting…or the forest will swallow you up.