I call these “articles” that I’ll post on the website but they are more like very extended Twitter posts. I wish I had the time to write journal length articles but at present I do not. However so many of you have good questions that I would like to discuss more than the size of posts on Twitter will allow. Posting these at the website will provide a good forum to hear your comments and get into more detail with you. I am sure at some point and on some topics I will go in-depth but probably not until the summer or if I get really charged up over a topic! LOL
One of the topics I wanted to get into today is “known” bettor action. Yesterday morning and this morning the two “known” bettors plays lost. Yesterday it was KHL which was a DRAW and this morning we had soccer which also was a DRAW. When you are as white hot as things have been this year, when losses come, casual bettors don’t know how to handle it. You quickly and often forget what losing is like because winning seems so automatic. Let me stress to you, this feeling and naivety can lead you to bankroll ruin!
Question, “Do Known Bettors Lose?” It sounds like a simple answer and of course it is. The answer is yes. Many people don’t understand how it works though. Most bettors have visions that a sharp never gets his ass handed to him. People expect a bad week for a sharp to be 50% and he loses some vig. Maybe you even think he will hit 40%. It is far from the case. I have seen “known” bettors miss every bet they place for a stretch. The “known” bettor accepts it because their experience in the business tells them these sort of things happen. The “known” bettor then needs to be smart about how he proceeds. Often the casual bettor is not accepting of this reality. The casual bettor wants to believe that “known” bettor information NEVER loses for any length of time. Not the case!
When you follow me on Twitter you will see some amazing runs from the “known” bettor action I post. There will be weeks and even months at a time where it’s like “known” bettors cannot miss anything! Where “known” bettors are cashing 60 or 70%+ of the plays that get posted. It feels like you are STEALING! You will start to worry that because you are on such fire from following the “known” bettor action that your book is going to cut you off! What you need to know is there will also be weeks where you ask, “The Sharp Plays, did you go on vacation??” or “Who are these ‘known’ bettors you are posting??” Nothing changed, it’s just a regression to the mean. It is something you need to be aware of and be prepared on.
There is a lot of talk about “regression” for those that follow the #FollowTheMoney6 first period totals. Where does the term come from? What is regression to the mean? It is used in statistics and the definition per Wikipedia is… In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that arises if a variable is extreme on its first measurement but closer to the mean or average on its second measurement and if it is extreme on its second measurement but closer to the average on its first. What does all that mean?
Let’s say you have Bob who is a professional bettor. Over ten years Bob has a win percentage on his point spread bets of 56%. The 56% is Bob’s average win percentage (the mean). If Bob wins 70% of his bets this month, then it is likely Bob will regress in a way that returns him to his 57% lifetime average (mean). Whether the regression comes the next month or a few months down the road, there will be a regression. No handicapper alive has ever hit 70% lifetime. While this is just one professional or “known” bettor, the theory applies for anything in wagering. There is always the regression. You just don’t know when it will come. Which it is why it is gambling!
Even in the case of our friend, Mr. Poison! How many of you have decided to fade Mr. P exactly when he goes on a run? Over the long term Mr. P is atrocious! The guy is hitting 30% on first period totals in the NHL! If you flipped a coin you would do better. He did just have a 5-0 run though. The 5-0 run was followed by a regression to his awful mean but he did go 5-0. The long term, Mr. P is one of the best fades in history! Still, along that road there were times Mr. P had a winning streak going. Even Mr. P has his winning moments just like “known” bettors have their losing moments.
Therefore, if in a given month, the “known” bettor action I post is 60%, 70%, or better…we need to be aware it won’t always be like that. At the end of the year it may have a very strong winning record. We just need to be aware and intelligent about the fact that there may be three 60% months and one 35% month on the road.
I bring this up for one reason, be smart in your betting. Yes, the “known” bettors win in the end. They are “known” because they are long term winners whose winning has achieved results that are calculated beyond normal chance (luck) variations. It doesn’t mean that they don’t have their moments too. ALL of the absolute top “known” bettors have some HORRENDOUS weeks and months. Then of course they have those EPIC months. The problem for someone following, if you don’t bet smart then you could blow your entire bankroll in a horrendous month! When the epic month comes, you are watching from the sidelines while everyone else is rolling in the dough.
“Known” bettors have more epic runs than horrendous runs. “Known” bettors win over the long term. However those two sentences don’t mean that they will win every day, every week and every month! It doesn’t mean following their action will be a piece of cake.
One of the things I do find is “known” bettor action does move like waves. You ride high then pull back…ride high again and pull back. All the while you are making progress but it isn’t a direct route. There are bumps, often brutal ones, along the way to sports gambling profits…even for the triple sharps (sharpest of the sharps)!
I have found that there are certain things that happen when sharps are heading into a cold streak. It usually is preceded by an initial surge of public winning. Working with others in the gambling business I have calculated certain periods of time each year when sharps are not as effective as they are other times of the year. I have worked on a way to quantify these variables and created an algorithm to raise the red flag when the “known” bettor action may be something to tread lightly on. We’ll call the algorithm “Sharp Barometer V1.0.” It is a program I worked on during the football season and am prepared to test out in the coming weeks. I will share the results on this algorithm as it develops. If it is valid I will include the barometer readings when I tweet.
Speaking of algorithms, the next topic I will post is on an MLB algorithm I am working on for the upcoming season. More on that in a bit!
Thanks for following!
~The Sharp Plays