Don’t Be Frankie!! (Following Hot Streaks)

I wrote an article in 2019 about the “Sports Information Buffet” (CLICK HERE TO READ). The goal of the article was discussing bettor’s FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). No bettor wants to miss out on the next big win. So, they try to put everything on their plate, so that they have every angle covered and thereby they don’t miss a thing. The problem is this is an awful betting strategy. It makes bettors overleveraged and often not in situations which give bettors an edge. Again, I’ll let you read the buffet article as it stands for itself. Today, I want to talk about a worse strategy. The “worse strategy” are those bettors who jump from hot streak to hot streak hoping that in doing so they will avoid any losing or worse, a cold streak. These bettors don’t realize they are walking into a betting buzz saw called REGRESSION!

For this example I will call one of these “following the hot streak” type of bettors, “Frankie the Follower”. Frankie comes across my Twitter page and decides he won’t put all the TSP content on his betting plate. Instead, Frankie will just follow the sharp MLB. Good job Frankie! However, as soon as Frankie follows, sharp MLB…it goes 0-4. Oh Frankie! At this point Frankie notices that Joe Blow, a service or Twitter capper, is 7-0 in the MLB Playoffs this year. Frankie who went 0-4 on sharp MLB, following the content I posted, will be sure to comment how my information sucks, how I make it up, how it is not sharp and go on down the list of standard angry comments. I do love guys like Frankie and their messages. Never ceases to give me a laugh. Anyway, Frankie stops following my stuff and follows Joe Blow instead. No problem! Well, unfortunately Mr. Blow immediately goes 0-3. Frankie, in this example, is now 0-7 his last 7 plays following myself and Joe Blow. Frankie now feels the world is against him. The universe has some sort of dislike for him and no matter who he follows he just loses. Frankie then decides to jump off a bridge and on the way down his scrotum gets ripped open on a beam. WOW, didn’t see that coming did you?!? Don’t be Frankie! Unfortunately, Frankie was so emotional and irrational in his betting he didn’t take the time to engage his brain and look at the big picture. Nobody is going to win 100% forever, just like nobody is going to lose 100% forever. The worst time to follow a handicapper is after a big winning streak. The winning streak is not going to last. Maybe you get a couple wins out of it, however usually you are just setting yourself up to be there for the regression. It’s not to say that this person on the hot streak is not a good long-term proposition. I am however saying that jumping on board at the peak of a hot streak is not usually a good time to jump in.

Regression was a topic I discussed a lot recently. Why? Because the previous weekend was so hot from a sharp perspective. Nothing runs hot forever… just like nothing runs cold forever. These things ebb and flow in betting. You have to be aware of the ebb and flow. You can’t have a great weekend and then throw caution to the wind assuming the next weekend will be just the same… it usually is not. Again, there is an ebb and flow to betting. Sometimes you are winning, sometimes you are losing. Your goal is to be winning at least slightly more than you are losing. Of course your goal is to win exponentially more than you lose, however we are all realists (not really, but I can hope to convert you) and know that at best we hope to win just slightly more than we lose.

Joe Blow went 7-0 and then lost three bets. Joe is still 7-3 in this span which is pretty damn good. However, Frankie was following Joe because he assumed Joe would continue winning and winning after the 7-0 run without any pain. Long-term perhaps Joe is a good gambler and does win consistently… LONG TERM, but that doesn’t help you if you keep jumping off the information on a SHORT TERM basis. It is something I see all the time. People follow some bit of content I offer, content which has a long-term positive ROI. The problem is they don’t bet for the long term and ride out the good and the bad. Most Frankie types will hit the bad and then give up. In doing so they are never around for the good. Frankie will see me hot again and then jump on… once again when it is too late. Stop trying to create a betting system where you will never experience pain/losing, but instead only experience winning. You cannot have winning without the pain!

Please, don’t try to follow every single selection that gets put out. Put together a strategy that works for you and then be consistent with that strategy. Don’t jump between content based on the recent performance. Will I help you with this? No, I do not want any involvement in people’s wagering. Nothing personal. You need to make the decisions for yourself. It really is not rocket science if you sit down, review the records I post here on the website and assess the daily content. Then look at your bankroll, what you like to bet, how many open games you want to have at a given time and then decide for yourself what to do. What I just outlined forces you to stop and think, something most people don’t do in betting. If you would, I think you would be surprised at what a difference it makes.

So, stop chasing the latest hot streak. Find consistently performing content. If that’s following me, awesome!! If that’s not following me, that’s awesome too! As long as you find a long-term consistent winner. Then tell yourself you will not win every bet, you are going to lose lots of bets, but if you stay the course you will be a winner at the end of the season/year/etc. Now, setup a bankroll management strategy that works for you and within betting the strategy you have just built. At this point, you will have everything you need to be a better bettor… and you won’t get your scrotum torn open jumping off a bridge like Frankie! Sounds like a good plan to me!