Every day, I get a flood of messages asking:
“Is there sharp action on this game?”
The answer? Yes… almost always.
But don’t get too excited. Just because sharp action exists on a game doesn’t mean it’s useful or profitable to follow.
Let’s break this down 👇
🎯 Sharp Action is Everywhere — But It’s NOT All Equal
It’s rare to find a sports betting market that doesn’t have some level of sharp involvement. That’s awesome in theory — more sharp action should mean more great opportunities for us, right?
WRONG.
Only ~10% of sharp action each day qualifies as “material” sharp action — the kind that matters.
Of that 10%, only about 20% of it (2% of all games) still carries the same price where sharp bettors originally saw value.
Let me say that again:
👉 Only 2% of the entire board each day has actionable sharp value at current prices.
The rest? Either:
- The line is long gone 📉
- The action was for a middle, hedge, or arb
- Or, it simply doesn’t matter anymore
🔍 Sharp Action ≠ Blindly Followable
Many bettors treat sharp money like gospel:
“If sharps bet Team A, I’m betting Team A.”
But here’s what you need to understand:
- Sharp bettors win 53–54% of their bets
- Public bettors win ~50%
That’s a 3–4 bet difference out of every 100.
And guess where most of those 3–4 bets are won?
🎯 Hook games. Key numbers. Line value.
If sharp money bet Team A +7, and you’re betting Team A +4, you’ve completely erased the edge.
Worse — now you’re on the same side, but with -EV pricing. That’s gambling suicide.
⚠️ Line Movement ≠ Bet Opportunity
One of the most common misconceptions:
“The line moved a ton… it MUST be sharp.”
No. It was sharp — when it opened.
That doesn’t mean it’s sharp now.
Example:
- Team B UNDER opens at 50
- Now it’s 45
- Sharp action likely hit UNDER 50 → 48
- So why would I (or the analytics) recommend UNDER 45?
Answer: We wouldn’t. Because no sharps are buying UNDER 45 anymore. The value is gone.
Same with sides:
- Team A +7 was sharp
- Now it’s +4
- That edge is dust
🤖 Why You Don’t See “Sharp” on TSP Live Every Time
Sometimes people ask:
“Why doesn’t the TSP Live Radar show sharp action on a game I KNOW had a big move?”
Because it’s not sharp anymore.
My analytics only report sharp action if:
- It is material sharp action (not setup, buyback, arb, etc.)
- The current price is at or near the price sharp bettors hit
If those two conditions aren’t met?
❌ Not worth your time
❌ Not worth my time
❌ Not worth the robots’ time
❌ Definitely not worth your gambling money
🧠 Why This Matters So Much
Sharp action is not the Holy Grail unless:
- You’re identifying material action
- You’re getting the same price or better
- You’re understanding the context (not just the move)
Otherwise, you’re just chasing steam at a worse number, which defeats the entire purpose of following sharp bettors in the first place.
“Sharp money is not about the team — it’s about the price.”
If you forget that, you’re doomed to be one of those guys that wins 48% and can’t figure out why.
🧾 This Is Why I Love the Oddsmaker’s Report
The Oddsmaker’s Report goes beyond just saying,
“Team A is sharp.”
It tells you:
- Key prices ✅
- Sucker prices ❌
- The exact price thresholds where sharp money entered
This allows you to strategically assess if a play is still valid — or if you’re chasing ghosts.
💡 Final Thoughts
If you’re serious about long-term profitability:
- Focus on value, not names
- Know the exact price sharp money bought
- Don’t touch a play where the current line is miles away from the sharp entry
Sharp action is one tool — not a magic wand.
Use it wisely, and it can be your edge. Use it blindly, and it’ll bury you.
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays