How to Read the TSP Power Ratings

The TSP Power Ratings are designed to assist in handicapping horse races—but they are not stand-alone wager recommendations. Handicapping horse racing is a complex process, and I plan to cover it in detail through a multi-part series in Summer 2024, once the NBA and NHL seasons conclude. In the meantime, there are plenty of online resources available to learn the basics and advanced techniques of horse racing handicapping.

How the TSP Power Ratings Are Posted

TSP Power Ratings are usually posted to Telegram in this format:

📌 Example:
🟢 R1: 1-5/4-2-6/7-8-9-10

Each number represents a horse’s post position, listed from highest to lowest TSP Power Rating.

How to Read the Symbols (- and /)

  • “-” (Dash): Separates horses with 3 or fewer rating points of difference.
  • “/” (Slash): Indicates a gap of 4 or more rating points between horses.

Breaking Down the Example (R1: 1-5/4-2-6/7-8-9-10)

  • #1 is the highest-rated horse.
  • #5 is the second-highest but is within 1-3 rating points of #1.
  • #4 has a 4+ point gap from #5, making #5 significantly stronger.
  • #2 is 1-3 points behind #4, and #6 is 1-3 points behind #2.
  • There’s another 4+ point gap before the #7 horse, meaning the top group is much stronger than the bottom group.
  • The #8, #9, and #10 horses are each within 1-3 rating points of each other.

This format allows for a quick reference to both rankings and separation in strength when space is limited (like in a tweet).

Development of the TSP Power Ratings

Horse racing was the first sport I ever bet on, and it holds a special place in my heart because of the memories it brings back.

Like most beginners, I struggled early on, thinking betting was easy. Through many failures, I realized that winning takes time, effort, and a structured approach.

Back then, Beyer Speed Ratings were the gold standard in horse racing analytics (Google “Beyer Speed Ratings” for more info). I was already into betting analytics, so I bought Andrew Beyer’s book (“Picking Winners: A Horseplayer’s Guide”) and tried to develop my own power rating formula.

My first attempt was rough—I was essentially grasping at straws, hoping to create order out of chaos. It didn’t work, but it put me on a path to developing a more advanced horse racing model over time.

As my knowledge of betting analytics and modeling grew, I built a more sophisticated system that assesses:
✔ Class ratings
✔ Speed calculations
✔ Pace expectations
✔ Recent workouts
✔ Weather conditions
✔ And a few secret proprietary factors (the “secret sauce”)

Using these data points, I created expected finish probabilities, which then allowed me to calculate expected payoff values. These two components were combined into a final power rating score, which became the TSP Power Ratings you see today.

After 20+ years, these ratings are still going strong! 🎉

I hope you enjoy using them and that they help with your wagers! 🎲🏇