Originally published in the TSP Newsletter on October 18, 2022, this “My Two Cents” segment is now archived on TheSharpPlays.com as a long-term reference. It’s a deep dive into one of the most misunderstood aspects of professional gambling: why top-tier content doesn’t always win in the short term, and why that doesn’t mean it’s broken.
💭 Let Go of Your Gambling Fantasies
If there’s one thing that holds bettors back from reaching the next level, it’s their clinging to unrealistic perceptions about how this business works.
Most gamblers hold some version of the following beliefs:
- Big bets or “locks” hit at a superhuman clip — 75%, 80%, 90% winners!
- Professional bettors don’t suffer meaningful losing streaks — the pain is mild, brief, and easily managed.
- Life as a pro bettor is effortless — watching games, sipping drinks, and cashing tickets while lounging poolside.
Sorry to break the illusion — but all three beliefs are complete bullshit. Let’s tackle one of the biggest illusions: why lower-tier content sometimes outperforms upper-tier content…and that’s okay.
🔄 Upside-Down Performance Happens (and It’s Normal)
A lot of people treat top-tier content as if it’s immune to variance. They think high-level picks should avoid volatility, streaks, or downswings.
The truth?
Performance in sports betting follows four distinct patterns:
- ✅ Top-tier performs, bottom-tier does not
- 🔁 Bottom-tier performs, top-tier does not
- 💥 Both perform well
- 🚨 Neither performs well
You’re going to experience all four scenarios multiple times every year. And yes, #2 and #4 are a psychological nightmare for most gamblers — but that doesn’t mean something is broken.
Zoom out over 6, 12, or 24 months and the patterns smooth out. But in the daily grind of betting, you’re living those streaks second by second — and they feel like hell if you’re unprepared.
📉 A Realistic Example: TSP Game of the Week
Let’s say I launch a new “TSP Game of the Week” play. After one year, it finishes:
➡️ 33 wins, 19 losses — 63.5% winners, +12.1 units
Sounds amazing, right?
But here’s how that could look under the hood:
- 5 wins 🔥 — “TSP is a god!”
- 5 losses 😡 — “TSP is trash!”
- 6 wins 🤑 — “Take my wife, TSP!”
- 3 losses 😠 — “Gambling is rigged!”
- 4 wins 🙌 — “Let’s gooo!”
- 1 loss 😑
- 1 win 👍
- 2 losses 🤬
- 4 wins 💪
- 2 losses 😤
- 10 wins 🚀 — “I’m buying a yacht!”
- 6 losses 💀 — “Do I need a bankruptcy attorney?”
- 3 wins 😅 — “I’m back, baby!”
The average bettor would’ve bailed during either the first five-loss run or the final six-loss streak — yet those exact plays produced a rock-solid 63.5% over the year. That’s elite-level performance.
But only if you could survive the emotional ride to get there.
🔄 Top-Tier Slumps, Bottom-Tier Wins: The Mind-Bender
Imagine the “TSP Game of the Week” hits a 0-5 stretch. Meanwhile, the NHL Algo is quietly churning out 80% winners.
That flips your expectations. People panic. They assume the system is broken.
Nope. Just normal variance.
It’s like blackjack — just because the dealer busts four hands in a row doesn’t mean the game is broken. You ride the long game.
📉 Book Positions Example
This one’s fresh.
Recently, Book Positions went 0-4. People questioned the content’s value.
But rewind to last football season:
Book Positions Record:
2-1, 1-0, 2-2, 1-0, 2-2, 5-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-1, 3-0, 1-0Final tally: 16-9-1 (64%)
That’s damn good content. But even with that track record, it’s going to experience losing runs. Expect it.
💡 Flat Betting: The Great Equalizer
Let’s talk strategy.
If you bet 2 units on top-tier and 1 unit on bottom-tier, here’s how your profit scenarios break down:
| Scenario | Profit Outcome |
|---|---|
| #1 (Top wins) | ✅ Positive |
| #2 (Bottom wins) | ❌ Negative |
| #3 (Both win) | ✅ Positive |
| #4 (Neither win) | ❌ Negative |
But if you flat bet 1 unit on everything, the outcomes shift:
| Scenario | Profit Outcome |
|---|---|
| #1 | ✅ Positive |
| #2 | ✅ Positive |
| #3 | ✅ Positive |
| #4 | ❌ Negative |
➡️ Flat betting wins in 3 out of 4 performance scenarios.
Tiered betting only wins in 2 out of 4.
📌 Flat betting might not be optimal for profits — but it is optimal for emotional survival and stability, especially for casual bettors.
🎯 Final Thought: Zoom Out, Breathe, and Bet Smart
Stop expecting clean performance curves. Stop treating each losing streak as a crisis.
Sports betting is a grind — chaotic, nonlinear, streaky, stressful — but also incredibly rewarding for those who embrace the math, the mindset, and the long-term process.
Eventually, the mean catches up, and with it… comes profit.
🎲 Stay patient. Stay disciplined. And stay sharp.
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays