Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference.
🎯 Let’s Talk About Parlays — The Truth You Rarely Hear
Parlays get a bad rap.
Every “guru,” mainstream analyst, or weekend warrior on social media seems to repeat the same tired line:
“Parlays are sucker bets!”
Really? Then why have parlays — in my own verified performance under The Sharp Plays brand — returned over +283 units since launch?
Why did they outperform straight bets last football season, returning +34 units, compared to +20 units from straights?
Simple: Parlays aren’t sucker bets. Stupid bets are.
Let’s unpack the truth.
💣 The Blanket Take: “Parlays Are Bad” — Is Lazy & Wrong
This past weekend I released a 1 unit, 4-team parlay at +9.98 odds, and a few followers were shocked.
“You’re betting a parlay?!”
My response: “You must be new here.”
Here’s the reality:
- I rarely release parlays above 0.3 units outside football and March Madness.
- In football/NCAAB, I’ll occasionally fire 1 unit parlays when the edge is there.
- I typically release 1-2 parlays per week, max.
And guess what?
I use them strategically — not as lottery tickets, but as controlled risk leverage for spots where I want exposure without 4 separate straight bets tied up.
If I lose? I lose 1 unit.
If I win? I bang out a 10-to-1 payout.
Sound like a sucker move? Not if you understand math. More on that below.
📉 “But the Books Say Parlays Are for Losers!”
Sure — if you’re betting like 95% of the public.
Straight bets are sucker bets too… if you suck at betting.
That’s the real issue.
A sucker bet is any wager where your expected return is negative, and far below your chance of winning. That’s most people. That’s why:
- DraftKings is worth $24 BILLION
- Most recreational bettors lose year after year
So yes, parlays are a terrible idea if:
- You don’t understand variance
- You don’t hit over 52.4% ATS
- You’re chasing bad prices
- You lack discipline or bet to “feel something”
But that’s not what I do.
📈 Want the Math? It’s Been Proven
Back in 2007, someone sent me a PDF titled:
📄 “How to Profit From Parlays”
It changed everything.
The article lays out the mathematical edge that becomes available to bettors who win above 52.4% ATS. If that’s you, then parlays flip from house edge ➝ player edge.
I tested it.
Then in Week 4 of the 2008 football season, I hit a big one.
I still keep the physical ticket to this day as a reminder — because it launched a parlay strategy that’s been +EV ever since.
🧠 Why I Use Parlays Today (And Why You Might Too)
Parlays are a tool — and I use them when the setup fits. Some advantages:
- Capital Efficiency: I don’t need 4x 1.1 units out for straight bets — I use 1 unit for high leverage on angles I already like.
- Risk Management: I can hedge if needed (and often do — just enough to cover the original stake).
- Leverage On Known Edges: In sports I track heavily (football, NCAAB), I can capitalize on correlated market inefficiencies.
Oh, and a little bonus:
Most sportsbooks won’t limit you as quickly when you win via parlays.
Why?
Because they assume it’s just luck.
And that’s fine — let them think that while the units keep stacking.
🧢 “But Do You Win Every Parlay?”
No — and I don’t claim to.
- Week #1: Lost a 1-unit parlay
- This weekend: Won a 1-unit parlay at nearly 10-to-1
That’s how the game goes.
The difference? I pick my spots, stay disciplined, and track my ROI across seasons — not single days.
🧠 A Note to the Naysayers
If you hate parlays, that’s fine. You don’t have to play them.
But please don’t regurgitate what you’ve heard from Twitter “experts,” analysts in suits, or forum legends who haven’t posted a single verified ticket.
I’ve used parlays:
- Publicly for over a decade
- Mathematically using edges I understand
- Successfully, with a transparent +283 unit track record
Unless you can say the same — maybe hold off on the blanket takes?
🎯 Summary: The Sharp Plays Approach to Parlays
✅ I bet them selectively, not daily
✅ I use them to maximize edges in specific sports
✅ I understand risk, variance, and math
✅ I treat them as a tool, not a lottery ticket
✅ I track performance and document my wins/losses
✅ I hedge smart, only when needed
And that’s why parlays continue to be one of my best-performing strategies year after year.
🎬 Final Thought: Be the Huckleberry
If you’re disciplined, sharp, and understand variance…
There’s nothing wrong with parlays.
In fact, they can be one of your best long-term weapons.
So, next time you hear someone say,
“Parlays are for suckers!”
Just smile, walk into DraftKings like Doc Holliday and say:
“I’m your huckleberry.”
🎲 Good luck in your action — and on your next parlay!
– The Sharp Plays