Originally published on Telegram on 1/25/2023 (Article has been expanded for publishing on TheSharpPlays.com)…
🏀 “The Public is HOT!” …Yeah, About That
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been hearing a lot of chatter:
“The public is on fire in NBA sides!”
“Is this the end of fading the public?”
It’s not the first time the public’s gone hot. And it’s not a shock.
In fact, a few weeks back, I pointed out how cold the public had been. It was a nasty stretch, documented in the daily “Public Concentrations” report (posted weekdays at 5pm ET and weekends at 11:30am ET). It was so statistically off the rails that a bounce was coming.
And now? That rubber band snapped—as expected.
📉 Understanding Mean Reversion
This isn’t magic—it’s math. When you’re working with large sample sizes (like thousands of wagers over years), you start to see one undeniable truth:
📈 Everything regresses or progresses back toward its long-term average.
If the public historically hits 48.84% on NBA sides (based on 11 years of data), and they’ve been running at 30% this season, what do you think is likely to happen?
🎯 A monster hot streak to pull them back up toward that 48–49% range.
🚨 Stop Chasing Short-Term Trends
Here’s the mistake casual bettors make:
“The public’s hitting 30%? Hell yes! I’ll fade and win at 70%!”
Sorry, but that ship already sailed.
The fade angle worked while the cold streak was in play. But if you jump in after the damage is done, you’re likely catching the wrong end of the swing.
Once the rubber band is fully stretched, the next move is snapback.
🧪 Real Example: Public Regression
If the public had a 30-70 record ATS (“against the spread”) and their long-term expectation is around 50%, then at some point, you can reasonably expect:
- A 70%+ run
- A 20-5 stretch
- Maybe even back-to-back perfect days
Why? Because the long-term math demands it.
🚫 The Worst Move? Chasing a Hot Hand
Everyone’s guilty of it:
“This capper is 20-2! Time to unload the bankroll!”
And then… they go 3-11 and you’re left holding the bag.
That’s not because they suck—it’s because you jumped in at the statistical peak. If their long-term win rate is 54%, a cooling period is inevitable.
It happens to everyone. The best bettors grind. They don’t ride magical 80% waves forever.
📉 The sharper the run up, the harder the drawdown.
📉 The TSP Live Example
When TSP Live content goes on a cold streak, people step away.
And without fail… that’s when the bounce happens.
It’s natural to want to jump ship during a rough patch—but if you’re working with long-term +EV content, you must stay the course to realize the edge.
Otherwise, you’ll just end up:
- Quitting during the drawdown
- Missing the recovery
- Rejoining at the peak
- Getting burned by the next correction
Repeat. And lose. Every. Time.
🧠 Strategy = Survival
Here’s the real secret to using content like TSP Live successfully:
- Build a proper bankroll
- Use a consistent unit size
- Be mechanical, not emotional
- Ride the waves—up and down
- Don’t chase, don’t flinch
Statistically, a sharp bettor using 1-unit plays will face a 20–30 unit drawdown annually—even with long-term profitability.
🎯 If that would crush your bankroll, your unit size is too high.
❌ Don’t Fade the Public—Use the Data Smarter
I don’t post Public Concentration reports to say “fade the public every time.” That’s not the point.
Here’s the reality:
- 98% of the time, the most public bet side or total has no value or negative value
- It’s a good “do not bet” alert—not necessarily a “must-fade” angle
❗ Sometimes, knowing what NOT to bet is just as powerful as knowing what to bet
🔚 Final Word
- 🔁 All performance regresses to the mean
- 🧠 Don’t blindly chase hot streaks
- 🛠️ Have a strategy, a bankroll, and a plan
- 🧊 Cold streaks = buying opportunities for +EV strategies
- 🔥 Hot streaks = a time to be cautious, not reckless
Tempting fate is fine in movies. In gambling, math always wins.
Stay smart. Stay sharp. And as always—
🍀 Good luck in your action!