ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON AUGUST 29, 2023
With college football arriving this weekend, and everyone excited for football, I wanted to discuss some key lessons. TSP veterans have heard this story before…and you will likely hear it again right before the football season starts. It’s not because I like to repeat myself. It is because so many people have a short memory when it comes to gambling. All everyone will remember is last season was a winner and they assume it was just a slow, easy and consistent grind of profits. LOL! No season is a simple or easy grind of profits. What most gamblers tend not to remember when looking back are the awful weeks along that journey, and what a rollercoaster of emotion it was. I love talking about all the highlights and the fun, but if you forget the bad moments then you won’t handle them properly when they show up once again this season…and they show up in every season and every sport…often multiple times. So, let’s discuss the lessons from season’s past…
Lesson #1 – Do not have any expectation as to how the season will play out.
Many years ago, before I was involved with The Sharp Plays, I had a football season where I lost money in September, October and November. Then I had an EPIC December where I got back all my losses from September through November AND had a season’s worth of profit on top in my pocket by the end of the month. During September, October and November…I did not press when I was losing…I did not chase when I was losing. I trusted that eventually, as it always does, the cream would rise to the top and everything would work out…and it did. If the content at The Sharp Plays had the season I just described, whoa baby! Do you realize the riots that would be occurring in November, or how many people would have given up on the content after a losing September. However, those people lacking any sort of fortitude, would have missed the epic comeback and profits to be had in December of that year. As soon as gambling isn’t easy or free money…many of you will run away. If you run away from strategies when they are losing, you will always be chasing the winning…but never quite obtaining it.
Gambling is nothing but an infinite series of cold runs leading to hot runs leading to cold runs leading to hot runs…rinse and repeat. Also, the colder a run is, the hotter it tends to be when it turns around. We see it all the time with the TSP Index. A cold run eventually ends and a hot run begins…and we are all in this business because WE LOVE to experience the hot runs. Well, you are never going to experience a hot run if you quit in the midst of every cold run!
So…don’t go into this season expecting to win money in September or win money every week or win money every month. Go in knowing that there is a VERY HIGH probability that if you maintain discipline and stay the course of your +EV (“positive expected value”) strategy that the profits will be there at the end of the season. However, those profits will only come when Lady Luck sees fit to give them to you. Be patient!
Every football season in which I have gambled since 2001 has provided me a profit. I have a high confidence I will have another profitable season under my belt when the clock ticks 0:00 on Super Bowl Sunday…how that profits comes…what kind of a wild ride it will be…I have no clue. So, I won’t go in with any expectations or preconceived notions. I am just ready for another football season and preparing myself for plenty of ups and downs.
Lesson #2 – Do not have any expectation as to what wagers will bring you profits.
Similar to #1, there have been seasons where my profits came from straight bets, parlays and futures. There have been seasons when my profits came from straight bets. There have been seasons where my profits came mostly from parlays. There have been seasons where my profits came mostly from teasers and futures. I say this because there are folks out there who will refuse to bet parlays, teasers or futures. That’s all good…but be aware that a good portion of The Sharp Plays profits could come from those wagering tools. I don’t know where the profits will come this season. Maybe there will be a wild 1 unit parlay that pays 80-1 at some point and by the grace of God it will cash…and that’s a bulky +80 units of profit from one wager! Three years ago The Sharp Plays gained over 60 units from PARLAYS throughout the season!! It was awesome, yet I had to laugh at how many people were bitching because “they don’t bet parlays.” Well, sorry for you…I do bet parlays because they work for me. So, don’t write-off categories of bets as options for you. You never know what wagers will carry the day. Last season (2022) October was a losing month and then the last weekend of the October we cashed two parlays in back to back weekends and bingo…into the green for the month…thanks to two parlays!
Lesson #3 – You will have losing days, weeks…maybe even a losing month or two…know it AND accept it. Losing is unavoidable!
There’s a scene in The Hangover (click here for a good laugh this morning). In the scene there is a guy waiting at the Caesar’s valet that says, “some guys just can’t handle Vegas.” Well, some guys just can’t handle losing…at all. These guys (women tend to handle it far better…sorry guys) will lose and immediately turn into blubbering idiots. It never ceases to amaze me that people can see all these billion dollar casinos, and these billion dollar valuations for sportsbooks (DraftKings has a market cap of $14.96 BILLION at the time of this writing in August 2023), and far too many gamblers think that winning at sports and beating the sportsbooks is easy. Yes, you got it right…DraftKings is nothing more than a degenerate welfare program which allows all of us sports gamblers a means of a secondary income relatively easily. As long as we put in a ticket at DraftKings, they will ensure we are supported financially! LOL! I know…we can laugh, but wait until you see the level of betting idiot that shows up for football season. I do my best to educate you based on 30+ years of gambling experience….but I know, you just read an article, listened to some idiot on the radio and just opened your DraftKings account…you know how it all works! Thanks for educating me on the ins and outs! LOL
Lesson #4 – The most important lesson of all…HAVE FUN!!!
Gambling is supposed to be fun and entertainment! Yes, I wager for an income each year, so I am serious in how I strategize my wagers and I want to win as much as possible. However, I let the losses roll off my back. Hopefully the fun that can be enjoyed in gambling is evident in comments on Twitter, Telegram and in the various content of The Sharp Plays. There is an old Gambler’s Anonymous saying of “when the fun stops being fun….” Yes, it is a good point. If you can’t laugh after an epic bad beat…if you can’t joke after getting crushed on the last leg of a parlay, or your last straight bet of the day which would have gotten you even…it is a sign you are betting WAAAAAAAY too much. No, I am not saying when someone drops a TD that costs you a $100K parlay that you should laugh in that moment. Nope…I get it. However, 30 minutes later if you can’t have a laugh in what went on and get yourself ready to try again for that $100K next week…you have a serious problem that is only going to get worse as the weeks go by. Take a minute to assess if the business of betting is right for you…because IT IS NOT RIGHT FOR MOST people. The people who refuse to leave emotion at the door in their gambling are the real income generators for the sportsbooks! Don’t be one of them!
If you can go into the season or any gambling endeavor with a dedicated bankroll, with the expectation that you have no clue how you will get there, but that with patience you will have a profit in the end, you are open to any wagers so long as there is value within them and you are looking to have some fun along the way…then you should be good to go to have a GREAT time this football season! If any of the above lessons are a problem for you or don’t fit your style…please take the time to reassess your plans for the season ahead. The Sharp Plays is always happy to help with questions or concerns, you just need to reach out. Send a message using the Contact page or on Telegram https://t.me/thesharpplays.
That’ll do it for me today. I hope you have a wonderful day, good luck in your action and here’s to a GREAT football season ahead!