As I start this breakdown, I have to admit, there really is no proven theory as to why certain days perform differently than others. We can say that Saturdays perform better for the public because it is the largest betting card of the week, but it’s tough to rationalize how more options for wagering would give the public better performance. Why is Sunday so strong? How is it different from Saturday? You could say NFL, but that’s only 17 weeks plus playoffs. Do players go out and drink and party on Friday night and thereby the parameters are different for sharp models on Saturday given the levels of Friday inebriation? Again, I have no idea. However, after 11 years of compiling sharp & public performance data, there are some clear performance patterns based on the day of the week. By the way, the sports data I used for this assessment involved all wagers placed for soccer, NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB & tennis from one global book, assessing accounts rated as public and sharp. I did use other filters to clean up the action, but nothing that would materially change the key variables being assessed.
Holidays are another weird situation which presents a statistically significant variance from what you would expect performance to be. For example, when you look at sharp and public performance, over the past 11 years as a whole (every day of the week combined, holidays and all) you get the following performance…
Public Money ROI: -5.4%
-Remember, 94% of bettors at books fall into this category. Now realize how much money a 5.4% edge will generate when it is derived from 94% of customers… now that’s printing money!!!
Sharp Money ROI: +4.7%
-Only 6% of a typical book’s clients qualify as sharp.
Something you should also take away from the above… isn’t it funny how afraid MOST (not all) books are of that 6%, given they print money on the other 94%??
Now compare the above bolded performance numbers with the below holiday numbers. The below numbers for holidays are 2017 to present. In 2017 I began manually tracking holiday performance. I would have to manually track back to 2011 and maybe some day I will take the time. However, for speed, check the holiday numbers since 2017. Weird isn’t it? I have no idea why, but that’s 4 years running data. Holidays analyzed were US holidays (New Year’s Day, MLK Day, President’s Day, Easter, Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day, Veteran’s Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Year’s Eve).
HOLIDAYS
Public: +1.6%
Sharp: +0.2%
Now for individual days of the week (data since 2010)…
MONDAY
Public: -7.2%
Sharp: +8.9%
TUESDAY
Public: -5.3%
Sharp: +2.7%
WEDNESDAY
Public: -4.2%
Sharp: +0.6%
THURSDAY
Public: -3.5%
Sharp: +2.8%
FRIDAY
Public: -5.1%
Sharp: +2.4%
SATURDAY
Public: -3.9%
Sharp: +2.7%
FOOTBALL SATURDAYS
Public: -4.4%
Sharp: +4.8%
NCAAB SATURDAYS
Public: -6.1%
Sharp: +5.2%
NON-FOOTBALL & NON-NCAAB SATURDAYS
Public: -0.2%
Sharp: -2.6% (Only day of the week with a negative sharp performance)
SUNDAY
Public: -6.9%
Sharp: +11.5%
NFL SUNDAYS
Public: -5.4%
Sharp: +8.8%
Taking a look at the above, we can see the best performing sharp days, in order, are Sunday, Monday, NCAAB Saturdays, NCAAF Saturdays, Thursday, Tuesday, Friday, Wednesday and Non-Football/NCAAB Saturdays.
We can see the best performing public days, in order, are Non-Football/NCAAB Saturdays, Thursday, Saturday, Wednesday, Football Saturdays, Friday, Tuesday, NCAAB Saturdays, Sunday, Monday. Obviously “best performing” public day should be kept in context to the fact that the public is negative every day.
Wrapping this whole thing up, we can see distinct days where the sharps really kill it, those being Sundays and Mondays. Sunday is even stronger than it may show because there are fewer sharp sides tracked for Mondays than on Sundays. So, the ROI on Sunday is the best AND over the largest same size meaning the ROI is further amplified. Betting volume in this sort of analysis is like wild chill on how cold it feels outside. A day with an 11% ROI and average of 50 plays is hardly as good as an 8% ROI on a day where sharps place 1000 plays. ROI is a good analytic, but actual return in dollars in the 8% example would blow it away. So, this is where Sunday gets the double bang for the buck, literally!
I hope the above helps! I will definitely be discussing tomorrow from a strategy standpoint in TSP Daily and using this within my personal wagering. I am surprised it took me this long to think about doing this sort of assessment. I also expect to expand this assessment in the weeks and months ahead. For now, I just wanted to run the report and put it out for discussion. Thanks for checking it out and good luck in your action!!