The Sharp Plays Newsletter 2022 Week #10


Recap & Week Ahead – Last week and weekend saw a very solid performance out of the analytics and content! It was a nice bounce back from the previous weekend and showed the ebb and flow of gambling that I talk about all the time. One week you are ebbing…the next week you are flowing…so don’t get caught up in the results in the short term. The key is the progress you make over the long-term. The longer the time frame, the more the ebbs are offset by the flows! Let’s see continue flowing for the week ahead. Today is November 1st and with November comes NCAAB. I love the NCAAB season. Sure, it helps that NCAAB content is quite strong year over year…but it also just adds one more solid sports option for wagering.

So far NBA and NHL content has been performing well to start the season. Whether this is due to the season itself or my much tightened parameters for reporting. Since the summer I dramatically tightened up the bots and it seems to have worked. The content obviously was profitable prior (never even close to a losing year), but I saw areas for improvement. A complete statistical analysis done with the assistance of a statistician friend in April provided insights. Those insights led to content reporting changes and those changes have brought very strong performance as evidenced in the sharp performance records (CLICK HERE) across all sports. If you visit the records pages you will see only one sport in red…tennis. Even MLB, which had a rough start, has moved back into the green! More on this process in My Two Cents and what it means for the future of TSP content.

If you are looking for expanded sports content, don’t forget to check out TSP Live! Signup at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Options ranging from 7 days up to 1 year are available. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, the Oddsmaker’s Report, the new In-Play Pricing analytic and more (CLICK HERE FOR RECORDS)! On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live members get access to TSP Live Insider…which provides discussion of strategy, early sharp buys, the occasional exotic (teaser/parlay/rollover) and more! It’s the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.

Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in its third year, another profitable one, with the FMA Spotlight collecting cumulative returns in 2022 of +37.0% using passive targets and +67.0% using aggressive targets! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup or for more details, visit TSP.Live/fma.

As always thank you for your support on the paid content! Your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support! I would not be here without you.

Lastly, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels (Sports, Trading & Twitter)! For details on each channel and how to join them, visit

Now let’s get into this week’s action…

Early Sharp Buy (5-4-0 for +0.6 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable to follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along.

The Early Sharp Buy won last week on South Alabama despite a counter buy later in the week. For the week ahead, the Early Sharp Buy is on Georgia -8. The Tennessee sharp fade is real. I have watched sharp money lean against Tennessee in their last two games. So far it has led sharp money to an 0-2 result. However, sharp money doesn’t sweat two loses and as books shade more to the Vols, I could see a turn coming in Tennessee’s ATS performance…and sharp fade success. We’ll see if that comes through this week for Georgia!

Early Algorithm Look (7-2-0 for +4.8 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.

Algorithm bounces back with a win on Middle Tennessee St. For the week ahead, the algorithm is showing value on Pittsburgh -3 over Syracuse. I have to say, I have been impressed with Syracuse’s play this season. However, that play has also led to some overvaluing in the prices. According to the algorithm, Pittsburgh should be -5.5 here and they are only -3. Gives me 2.5 points of value. Go Pitt!

My Handicapping (4-5-0 for -1.7 units) – I am in the midst of a losing streak after Houston fell flat for me. Desperately need a win this week.

For the week ahead I am going with Arizona -1 over Seattle. Personally, I don’t like either team, but this is a setup I can never pass up. The overvalued team coming in against the undervalued team…with the overvalued team being the road team.

Seattle thankfully (for my parlay) beat the NY Giants this past week. I think the Giants are and were an overvalued team due to their performance. Yes, they are playing well…but not quite as well under the hood as the sports media paints them. The situation set up a good value situation for Seattle this past week. However, because Seattle now beat the “vaunted” Giants, Seattle is getting more credit than it deserves this week.

On the other side is Arizona. The Cardinals have performed AWFULLY this past season. The media had high hopes for the Cardinals and they have fallen flat. The past weekend they lost to Minnesota 34-26. Due to that performance the Cardinals perceived value has dropped exponentially lower.

Arizona however still has talent and they get to play at home. If they are going to make a stand then this is the week. First, because AZ knows this is an opponent they can compete with and second, because AZ is at home and have no excuses. I don’t think this game will be a blowout and I don’t think it will be pretty. However, when the clock ticks to 0:00, I believe Arizona will have more points than Seattle. Go Cards!!!

My Two Cents – I touched on the topic above, but the one thing that was on my mind to discuss this week was the optimization of TSP content.

First, no matter how much you optimize content, it will still have losing days, weeks, and months. The purpose of optimization is to minimize the sting of those losing days, weeks and months while also maximizing the winning days, weeks and months.

Second…what does it mean to optimize the content? It means to use statistical analysis to find patterns within the content and data that show the potential to increase performance when utilized. You then optimize the content moving forward by requiring any content reported to achieve those new parameters you have located. The result is less content, but a higher level of performance from the content that makes it through all these new parameters/filters.

It should be noted that just because something changed should not mean the previous system was bad. The previous system generated consistent and strong annual returns. However, as you build data under a system, you can begin to analyze that data for optimization and improvement. I won’t go through the long story of the process and analysis behind the optimization. I would probably lose you halfway through my rambling. Suffice it to say I am continually analyzing the data I build up & its outcomes. What I did want to discuss here in detail is what the recent optimization means for Twitter/Telegram and TSP Live content moving forward.

Every day I am asked at least 20-30+ times for sharp information on a specific game or event. My response, which none of those inquiring seem to put value in or be concerned about is…if the robots don’t pick it up or it doesn’t show on the analytics, it is not at all worth reporting. Instead, flip a coin…the results would be the same as following sharp action which does not meet key parameters. Which further means I am not going to report such borderline information because it will only dilute the performance of TSP content. I know you are a big Phillies (or Houston) fan and want to know where the sharp money is because you want to bet the game. Right now, that sharp money is on Houston…very tiny. Some bettors will look at that and HAMMER Houston. To me, someone with experience viewing that sort of content, I see ZERO VALUE in that information. So, I am not going to report it on Twitter, Telegram or especially in TSP Live, and cut the corners I normally would not cut just because tonight is a World Series game. I don’t want my content getting a loss because I forced that report out.

I could sit here and easily fire off 20-30 angles every single day where some level of sharp action exists. It would be useless information. Why? To profit from that volume of reporting would mean betting all 20-30 angles every day and weather some major up and down swings on a daily basis. The upswings are easy…it’s those downswings that kill everyone. So, not having any parameters for reporting sharp action is not a good idea.

Also, as you expand the volume of content you post, you also begin loosen up the parameters for what you will cover to increase quantity. When you loosen the parameters you dilute that content and thereby its resulting performance. The record on those 20 angles per day might be 11-9 one day. It makes for a grinding process to gain +1.1 units. Wouldn’t it be easier to dial down to just one optimal selection that day and go 1-0 for +1 unit. Sure, in the hypothetical 1-0 scenario for +1 units, you have achieved less profit…but the process to get there was much more suitable to the setup of most gamblers. The process to get there is low volume, low risk outlay, low volatility and long-term positive performance. My philosophy in gambling is “less is more” and it works!

In recent months and especially in recent weeks, you may have noticed that the volume of content making it’s way to Twitter and Telegram has dropped off measurably. Many people just assume I am a dickhead and no longer want to provide free sharp reports outside TSP Live. The real reason is that while I am indeed a dickhead, my goal was actually to tighten the parameters for public reporting and in doing so dial down the volume yet increase the performance. Here’s an example…

On November 1st, 2020 there were 38 sharp angles reported publicly for NCAAF (Twitter & Telegram). Those 38 angles provided a record of 22-16 for a SOLID 57.9% winners and +4.4 units of profit…not bad at all!

On November 1st, 2022…only 20 sharp angles (basically half the total from 2020) have been reported for NCAAF and those angles have achieved a 14-6 record for 70.0% winners and +9.7 units of profit (CLICK HERE FOR RECORDS)!

So, we have HALF the NCAAF angles in 2022 versus 2020 (20 angles versus 38 angles)…but we have over DOUBLE the profits (+4.4 units versus +9.7 units)! Less for you to assess, less content for me to track and log, and a higher level of performance. Perfect!

It’s not just NCAAF either. It’s the same for NFL. On November 1st, 2020, there were 33 sharp NFL angles which generated +3.6 units of profit. On November 1st, 2022, there have been 18 sharp NFL angles for a 13-5 record and +7.5 units of profit! Once again, almost half the angles for over DOUBLE the performance. It is not a coincidence!

Want another one? How about MLB. MLB was having a tragically awful season. Sharp reports to Twitter and Telegram were -5.9 units over the summer and prior to optimizing sharp reporting. Today, MLB angles on the season are profitable at +3.0 units. It’s an 8.9 unit swing in only a couple months. Once again, likely not a coincidence..but the result of the new parameters.

Now, of course this doesn’t mean that increasing parameters for what triggers a sharp report will work without issue and make for guaranteed, consistent, and easy money at all times. Get those ridiculous dreams out of your head…nothing in gambling works that way! Look at tennis at that same link provided above. Tennis is -3.2 units despite the change. However, overall we can see that sharp content reports are +57.7 units…which includes a -3.2 units for tennis (CLICK HERE FOR RECORDS AND ADD IT ALL UP)! The +57.7 units is actually the HIGHEST unit profit ever achieved by publicly posted content at this point (November 1st) in ANY year!!

So, is the change working? I would tend to say it is. Why am I bringing it up? People have been asking almost daily why the content is light on Twitter and Telegram. People have been requesting I post sharp reports on specific events. A year or two ago…I would report 1-2 sharp angles per day. Those 1-2 daily angles performed well and provided a profit at the end of the year. However, by expanding what qualified for reporting also diluted the performance of the content.

Why did I decide to make this change? I always thought of myself more as a gambling journalist (with hardly the best writing proficiency and plenty of typos). I just enjoyed being someone who was reporting action in the markets and things I found interesting in gambling for that day. I wasn’t reporting because I thought you should actually bet what I was reporting. Just putting it out there as a topic of conversation. Well, perhaps as expected, people didn’t look at my reports simply as what was going on in the betting markets. My reports and the performance of those reports became the measure of how good The Sharp Plays was when it came to gambling. Listen…I don’t know why a betting group is betting on SMU games every week…I just find it fascinating…so I cover it. So, let me report it and we can watch how it goes. Well, this sort of thing in the gambler’s mind wasn’t seen in that way at all. It was seen as…”The Sharp Plays says a group is betting SMU…time to HAMMER it!” Then SMU loses and it is The Sharp Plays SUCKS!!!!!

OK, if that’s how people are going to view the content…as a direct reflection of my ability to sort through the markets and find value…then myself and the bots will not be firing reports willy-nilly! Which means I won’t report that a “known” bettor just risked 210% above their average wager on Tampa Bay -3. I don’t know why that bettor is taking Tampa. I find it interesting that they are and would love to report it. However, if my brand is going to be judged based on what some random sharp bettor is betting 200% on…then I need a little more backing before I report it. The guy could be laying off for a bookmaker in exchange for that bookmaker taking his action…who knows.

What does all this mean to you? It means some days the only content on Twitter and Telegram might be public concentrations! If there are no algorithm plays, the bots don’t find anything interesting to trigger an alert, and there’s nothing meeting TSP Live criteria to trigger an alert…then Twitter might only have one post that day (public concentrations)…and Telegram might just have a link to that day’s TSP Live Insider…AND THAT’S IT! So, when you see days like that…nothing is wrong. It’s just a quiet day and none of the content or action in the markets meets the high parameters I have for reporting. Which means, don’t expect me to lower the standards for reporting because you need action that day. If you need action, I am sure some handicapper out there will have their Tuesday Night MACTION GAME OF THE YEAR that you can spend $25 on and bet. God bless you and your wager! I don’t run that way. I would prefer going an entire week with only two wagers and going 2-0 for +2.0 units as opposed to betting heavy every day and finishing the week with a 42-38 records for +2.2 units.

An example of this at play in TSP Live is the new Big Bet Tracker. Every day there are big bets going on at the book. However, for a wager to hit the Big Bet Tracker, it must be over the window limit AND the wager must be at least 200% above the bettor’s average wager. Just these two simple parameters cut a list of what might be 50 or 60 wagers hitting the table in a given day to 0-2 wagers…at best! Many days there won’t be a single wager on the Big Bet Tracker…some weekends maybe 5-10. However, as we have seen up to this point, those two simple parameters have led to a 17-9 record for public wagers on the new Big Bet Tracker and a 6-1 record for sharp wagers on the Big Bet Tracker. Yeah, that’s a 23-10 record versus what would likely be something like a 96-94 record if I did not have those two parameters.

So, I know everyone likes content and information. We all want to see the analytics tables overflowing with content. However, as I have said many times before and even in this section already…less is more! When it comes to gambling content, the tighter the parameters, the stronger the content, the better the performance! If you want diluted content, there are plenty of people and services out there that will gladly provide it to you…The Sharp Plays just isn’t one of them!

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉🤙🍀

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays