NOVEMBER TSP LIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS @ https://TSP.Live/tsp-live
Recap & Week Ahead – It was a good weekend of content as Hermes has transitioned to in-play alerts and opened the campaign going 3-0! The public prop fade cashed the ticket to move to 8-1 in a very tight one with Heinicke OV210.5 yards (got 211). The Robin Hood Selection returned with a win as well on Pittsburgh! Can’t seem to cash one of the big wins on the Robin Hood Selection props/exotics on Twitter for charity…but that’s coming! When is Dawson Knox on prime time again?? LOL!
NCAAB has gotten underway, but market volumes have been underwhelming. There is often some sharp success early in the season, but a high level of success for sharp money usually depends on big public money pushing prices. Public money has been very quiet in NCAAB. It is mostly involved in football and then NBA. The public money will hit NCAAB…and it’ll bring some nice value to sharp sides…but that likely won’t be until after Thanksgiving. Plenty of time then because we have until April to take advantage of all that public shade! In the mean time we will see a lot of sharp on sharp violence where prices immediately move when sharp money hits…leaving anyone looking to follow with the only option being settling for a bad price…NEVER SETTLE FOR A BAD PRICE! Don’t worry…NCAAB will get rolling soon enough. In about two weeks when people are looking for something to do on Saturdays the volumes will go up exponentially and with it…a lot of value for sharp money to attack.
Speaking of NCAAB and transitioning from football…
If you missed it, as NCAAF heads into the final two weeks of the regular season (amazing isn’t it!) I am updating my content plan for public and subscriber content. To view the entire plan and breakdown visit https://TSP.Live/2022/11/14/tsp-live-content-updates/.
If you are looking for expanded sports content, don’t forget to check out TSP Live! Signup at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Options ranging from 7 days up to 1 year are available. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus (24-8-3 on the season), the Oddsmaker’s Report, the new In-Play Pricing analytic and more (CLICK HERE FOR RECORDS)! On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live members get access to TSP Live Insider…which provides discussion of strategy, early sharp buys, the occasional exotic (teaser/parlay/rollover) and more! It’s the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in its third year, another profitable one, with the FMA Spotlight collecting cumulative returns in 2022 of +37.0% using passive targets and +67.0% using aggressive targets! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscription, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup or for more details, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! Your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support! I would not be here without you.
Lastly, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels (Sports, Trading & Twitter)! For details on each channel and how to join them, visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buy (7-4-0 for +2.6 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable to follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along.
The Early Sharp Buy won last week on Texas Tech -3.5. Where is the early money striking this week? The cleanest and large sharp buy at this point in the week is Oklahoma -7.5 over Oklahoma St.
Early Algorithm Look (9-2-0 for +6.8 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.
Algorithm got a winner last week on Duke/Virginia Tech UN49.5! Let’s keep this algorithmic train rolling along! For the week ahead, the algorithm is showing the highest value as Iowa St -3.5 over Texas Tech. The algorithm calculates the spread should be Iowa St -8, which is thereby providing 4.5 points of value! Early Algorithm Look is Iowa St -3.5!
My Handicapping (5-6-0 for -1.8 units) – I’m GRINDING!! A nice comeback win by the Lions brings me closer to getting back to the green. Need a win this week. I debated a few games here but I am going to actually pick a game that many of you messaged me about. I am going to explain why it is a good bet despite how UGLY it looks on its face. Hopefully it can win to prove all the points I make…even more than because it’ll win me 1 unit of profit. So, here goes!
I am going with Dallas -1 over Minnesota! I know, Dallas is trash and Minnesota is hot…and that is EXACTLY why I want the Cowboys. Everyone saw the Vikings go into Buffalo and beat the Super Bowl contending Buffalo Bills. Everyone also saw the Cowboys running around like chicken’s with their heads cut off in Green Bay…against a pretty shitty Green Bay team. A Green Bay team that lost to Detroit. Now the Cowboys go to Minnesota…how could they POSSIBLY beat the Vikings on their own turf?
You are right…what was I thinking?? The bookmaker made a mistake when he was pricing what will be the game with the highest betting volume of the week ahead. Yeah…free money on the Vikings…let’s do it!! OF COURSE NOT! The bookmaker did not make a mistake. Now, the game still has to be played by individuals and once the game goes from paper to the field…a lot can happen. The Vikings could easily win a blowout because Dallas plays like Dallas, but it won’t be because the oddsmaker’s gave you a gift with Vikings +1. Gifts are for Santa and he only comes one day a year.
When we look under the hood on both teams we see that in most metrics the Cowboys offense matches exactly in quality and efficiency with the Minnesota offense. Where the Cowboys have the edge is on defense…and it is that edge which is large enough to warrant the Cowboys being a road chalk.
We also see that a lot of Minnesota’s wins can be attributed to some good luck going their way. As we all know, eventually luck runs out. Another one of those classic situations where one team is being overvalued due to recent performance (Minnesota) and another team is being undervalued due to recent performance (Dallas).
If you take away your perception and just look in the numbers, my NFL algorithm shows that Dallas should be -3 at Minnesota. We are only having to lay 1, and there is a good chance this could go to a PK by Sunday…giving me a full three points of value. I don’t want to wait just in case, so I will grab Dallas -1 right now!
The Sharp Plays Review – I thought it would be fun to put together some reviews on travel, products, services and more throughout the year. I have built up a few reviews that I wrote and will feature them here each week. I published one today and it is on the Atlantis Resort and Casino in Nassau, Bahamas. I would like to think the content and information will be interesting to the gamblers out there. If not, oh well…I enjoyed putting it together. LOL! If you are bored and looking for something to read, you can check it out at https://TheSharpPlays.com/atlantis-paradise-island-bahamas/. Enjoy!
My Two Cents – I talk so much on a daily basis about a variety of topics that sometimes I don’t have anything exciting or interesting to discuss…or at least what I would consider interesting. So, I apologize if this week’s edition is a little boring, but I am getting a common question I thought I’d discuss.
Recently, I began discussing my content in three unique tiers. For a breakdown of these tiers, you can visit https://tsp.live/tiers/. I avoid directly advising anyone on how to bet. People are all different and what works for me won’t necessarily work for you or for the next person. However, I do provide macro thoughts from time to time to assist you in making your own decisions. One of my recent thoughts was that, despite its long-term positive performance, I do not consider blind following Tier 3 content in my wagers. Sure, I will use Tier 3 content (analytics table content which does not trigger an alert, low level book needs, Robin Hood Selections classified as Tier 3, etc.) in my wagering, but only when it is combined with other unique information.
Of course this then leads to understandable question…why not? For starters, and this is me personally, I don’t really blind follow ANY of the content. Every bit of content that The Sharp Plays puts out is something I assess on a wager by wager basis. If it feels right, I bet. If it doesn’t feel right, no bet…whether Tier 1, 2 or 3.
Still if some bit of content is long-term profitable, why don’t I blind follow it? The answer goes back to the fact that every bettor is different. Personally, I don’t like a lot of action. I would much prefer placing ONLY ONE 1 unit WAGER this week, going 1-0 for +1 unit for the entire week VERSUS placing 5 wagers a day, going 19-16 for +1.4 units. When placing that much action (5 wagers per day) you have to handle a lot of up and down volatility. Getting to that 19-16 record could have had you open the week 2-9 and then finish the week 17-7. So, the 17-7 and 19-16 final records are easy to handle, but son of a bitch, I would have had to do a lot of hand holding during the 2-9 portion. I am NEVER going to advise ANYONE to bet Tier 3 content regardless of the profit. It’s all about the quantity and volatility. Most people can handle the end profit, few can handle the road to get to that end profit.
As the operator of The Sharp Plays, all the messages from followers and subscribers come to me (after someone filters out the non-sense). I get about 98% of my messages from a tiny fraction of followers and subscribers.
Now, this is not to say that is a problem. I am here and happy to help. My point is more that I do not get a full grasp on who is out there and how they approach the content. A LARGE portion of people who have subscribed to paid content since 2019…have yet to send me a single message ever in all that time. At the same time, I have people who subscribed a month ago and have sent me 4000 messages on Telegram. OK, I am being a little dramatic, but you get the point. Again, it’s all good! I am here to help, but when it comes to assessing what people can handle, the people who contact me are typically those who struggle a lot at gambling for one reason or another. When all your messages each day are from people who are trying to develop bankroll management plan for the first time in their gambling careers, who got smoked betting on their own and are trying to put the pieces back together or who wonder how a sharp bettor could possibly ever go on an 0-5 run…the thought of these people betting Tier 3 content on a daily basis makes me shudder! Nothing against them, but folks with these issues/beliefs could never handle it. So, it is better I just advise people not to bet Tier 3 content, and instead just use it in their overall handicapping. Thereby, if you are an experienced gambler and built a good system for using Tier 3 content, God bless you! Give the books hell and fire away! If you have not built a good system…don’t touch Tier 3 content…it’s not going to work well for you. It will be too much volume for your bankroll and too much volatility for your temperament. You will go from sane person to raving lunatic on Twitter in a week.
Yes, I consider myself an evolved gambler thanks to years of failure and 30 years of life experience as a professional gambler who derives income from the activity. Sure, I could handle betting Tier 3 content…I just don’t want to do it. I bet light and I bet strategically…because that is enjoyable to me. I enjoy passing almost as much as I enjoy winning. I don’t need a lot of action to be a happy gambler. For many people, not having 2-3 bets going tonight would be torture. So, The Sharp Plays free and paid content is there to give you some wager ideas…whether I will be betting or not. Whether that information works for you is a question that only you can answer…after an honest personal appraisal.
So, to answer the question, I don’t advise blind following any content. All content should be assessed based on the individual placing the wager and on a wager by wager basis. If you feel Tier 3 content is worthy of a blind follow…and you have taken into consideration the positives and negatives (especially the negatives) of what such a strategy would mean…and you are good with it…I say go in peace and love (and luck)! If not, stay the hell away from it!!!!!!!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉🤙🍀
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays