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Recap & Week Ahead – Well my friends, another winning week under the belt! The win gives TSP Live a 3 for 3 record on winnings weeks this football season and locks up a healthy profit for September thus far. The public has actually performed well to start the season. Nothing over the top, but better than usual. So, we will have to see
if WHEN public regression starts to sneak into the picture. Just something to keep an eye on!
The third week of the football season started good with the LA Chargers +4 this past Thursday. On Friday, the analytics gave some back with a Low Level Book Need on Louisville. Saturday was the first losing Saturday of TSP Live this football season at -3.1 units. However, Sunday and Monday dropped the BOOM to the tune of +16.1 units across all TSP Live content…completely erasing the losing Saturday! It’s the ebb and flow of gambling, and I will have more on the topic later.
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Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buy (0-3-0 for -3.3 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable to follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along.
The largest early buy is on Texas Tech +6.5 over Texas. Early public money and some very minor sharp buying hit Texas to open the week. The public continues to bet Texas, but sharp money has arrived today and decently at +6.5. Why is it not on the TSP Live Radar? Overall market volume is low. Market volume needs to be at a certain level based on teams/conference before an angle appears on TSP Live Radar. Market volumes usually reach those key levels starting on Wednesdays and Thursdays which is why things begin to pop on the analytics at that time. Let’s see what TTech +6.5 does this week. Unlikely the book will go to 7 unless sharp money really presses Texas at this price. Otherwise, the book will likely hold 6.5 to avoid giving sharp money the key “+7”.
The section here has sucked lately. I am wondering if these large early buys tend to setup head fakes or create a situation where we are finding something with the early buy, but the idea is perhaps to go the other way. I don’t know, just something to watch this week. Although given the 0-3 start, it’ll probably hit this week regardless!
Early Algorithm Look (3-0-0 for +3.0 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.
For the week ahead, the algorithm is showing strong value on Boston College +16.5 over Florida St. The algorithm calculates this price should be Boston College +13.5 and we are getting a whole 3 points more at +16.5. Hopefully BC can keep this section PERFECT for the week!
My Handicapping (2-1 for +0.9 units) – There goes my perfect season as Denver couldn’t do a damn thing against Houston!
I am going with a bet that turns my stomach, which is probably why it is a good one. I am going with the Indianapolis Colts +6.5, will buy to +7 (-130). It’s a simple thought process. Everyone knows that KC is one of the elite teams and the Colts tied an average (at best) Houston team and lost to the lowly Jags this past weekend. Now the Colts are at home to KC…a team that’s 2-0 to a team that’s 0-1-1, but really 0-2 since a tie to Houston is a loss to most people.
So, we have KC being overly inflated due to their win against the LA Chargers…a game they really should have lost. On the other side we have the pathetic Colts and their value is being overly deflated. My line for this game before the Jags beat the Colts was KC -3.5. Instead it is KC -6.5 points today…which I will buy to 7. Still, the 6.5 is a decent value for me. I am not saying the Colts win, but I expect this to be a lot closer than people think.
My Two Cents – The football season is very long! Sure, in some ways it is over in the blink of an eye, but in reality it will carry us from September to early February…loading up every Saturday and Sunday with a ton of action. Given the length of the season, you cannot sweat the short term! You can’t sweat the short term in ANY type of gambling.
I know many of you are veteran gamblers and you know about the long-term nature of gambling. However, even veteran gamblers can get sucked into a depression pool of quicksand based on short term performance. When you get sucked into the quicksand you panic and can no longer see the prize (long-term profits). When this happens, you are precariously close to making bad decisions involving chasing and pressing bets to try and IMMEDIATELY get out of the quicksand. However, just like quicksand, the worst thing you can do is get all worked up. When you do, you find yourself sinking further down. Slow and steady wins the race…allows you to pull you out of the pool of quicksand and it brings gambling profits too!
For those of us in gambling who aren’t built like the Vegas Dave types…you know…those who win all the time…gambling performance ebbs and flows. One week you win, next week you lose, next week you lose, next week you win, next week you win. In the previous sentence you had 3 winnings weeks and 2 losing weeks…and that’s how you ground a profit over a 5 week period. Sometimes you have a losing month, another losing month, and then three winning months in a row. Yes, that’s how professional gambling works. I had a football season many years ago where I lost money in September, October and November, but absolutely KILLED it in December. Killed it to the point that it easily covered my losses from September, October and November and provided phenomenal profits on top! If I gave up after the first losing month or I changed my strategy after two or three losing months, I never would have achieved the profits I did in December of that year! Instead I trusted my system and strategy that has worked for me since the late 90’s and waited for the turn to come. Eventually it did and I got my losses back and then some!
TSP Live had a losing month in April 2021 and then didn’t lose a month again until July 2022!!! That’s a total of 14 straight months worth of action and not a losing month! Sometimes that’s how it goes! August was a winning month of TSP Live solely due to my futures action on the US Open…sometimes that’s how it goes too! You had 14 straight winning months, one loser and one that was bailed out due to a futures bet. Now here we are in September with a nice profit cushion under our belts thanks to the past three weeks…ebb and flow!
TSP Live lost this past Saturday…hardly anything major. If you bet every single bit of content (which I don’t advise because it is too much action) you would have lost 3.1 units. An average losing day for me is 3-5 units. So, I didn’t really think much of the performance. Of course, after any losing day, regardless of size, I inevitably get the “Saturday was rough…The content is struggling…Nothing ever wins…etc.” messages. Yep, those folks had a small losing day and right into the quicksand they dove…time to panic!! If you have the impulse to message because you need a hug after a losing day, you probably bet too much. I’ll refer you to this article…https://TheSharpPlays.com/bankroll-management-v2-0/.
Anyway, the reason I bring this up is because there are bettors out there who HONESTLY don’t know how something based on sharp action could have a losing day…not even 1 unit. So…when they see TSP Live offers sharp content, they bet as though they aren’t going to lose. Meaning they bet far too aggressively…putting 20-30-50%+ of their available cash on a single bet! Then, when the content has even just a minor losing day they are completely wiped out because they didn’t plan for the possibility of losing.
TSP Live is very good at minimizing losses and maximizing wins…as was also evidenced this past weekend. However, there is nothing in gambling that will prevent losing days, weeks or month outside of simply not gambling. If you are reading this then likely the strategy of not gambling to prevent losses isn’t something you are interested in. So, if you are going to wager, accept the losing days. You can’t have a +15.3 unit winning Sunday like we did this week without also experiencing the losing days in there too! Accept and ride out the losing days so you can be there and profit from the winning ones.
I get there will always be haters who post on Twitter after a losing day. I don’t mind them although I do like to poke the bear when they post. My concern is reaching out with articles like these to the folks who aren’t the haters, but actually have the same mindset about gambling. I want to break down that facade in what I do to show you what real professional gambling is all about. I also want to say, don’t sweat the days that you lose 3 units, because you never know…the next 15 unit day might be the very next day!
Next week’s “My Two Cents” is something I am working on already…”Gambling blowhards and the completely unfounded “facts” they repeat ad nauseum!” If someone has to tell you they are a professional gambler, it is likely they are a better self-marketer than they are a gambler. Should be a fun article next week!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays