OCTOBER TSP LIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS ARE NOW OPEN @ https://TSP.Live/tsp-live
Recap & Week Ahead – Happy to say it was another solid weekend of content! TSP Live Analytics gained 14.7 units on Saturday and 0.20 units on Sunday. Not a big Sunday, but the first Group Buy of the NFL season cashed the ticket with the Colts +5 OUTRIGHT! Nice to see a Group Buy pop up and get the win! Aside from last Saturday (when paid content lost 3.1 units), the performance across all content…free and paid…has been quite strong in September! Let’s look forward to that continuing in October.
I can’t believe it but it is true…Saturday is already October 1st. October will bring us NHL and NBA on a daily basis, plus post-season baseball. I have not been touching regular season MLB. I hope the playoffs bring some normalcy back to the betting markets and to the performance of teams and sharp action in baseball. No more late inning shenanigans or other lunacy. If not, at least we will have NHL and NBA to attack. Assisting in that attack will be the TSP Live Radar and KB Consensus, with adjusted metrics for assessing non-football sports. My hope is during this test that these adjusted calculations provide nice tools for non-football sports wagering assessment. We’ll see how it goes. At a minimum, we have more opportunities for some good weekday Oddsmaker’s Reports with the arrival of NBA and NHL!
September TSP LIVE & FMA subscriptions have performed strongly…now it’s time for OCTOBER! Subscription signup is now open for October subscriptions at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Options ranging from 7 days up to 1 year are available. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, KB Consensus, the Oddsmaker’s Report, the new In-Play Pricing analytic and more (CLICK HERE FOR RECORDS)! On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live members get access to TSP Live Insider…which provides discussion of strategy, early sharp buys, the occasional exotic (teaser/parlay/rollover) and more! It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in its third year, another profitable one, with the FMA Spotlight collecting cumulative returns in 2022 of +42.9% using passive targets and 65.7% using aggressive targets! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscriptions, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! Your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support! I would not be here without you.
Lastly, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buy (1-3-0 for -2.3 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable to follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along.
The largest early buy is on Clemson -6.5. I always hate betting the big name teams, especially as favorites. I have to be honest, this one seems like such a setup. Offer Clemson at -6.5 instead of 7 and you suck in the public since “you don’t even have to lay a whole TD” and you don’t give the sharps the key number of +7 on the dog (which is usually the side the sharp money leans). So, not sure what to make of this, but I cannot deny that the cleanest sharp buy at this time of the week is Clemson -6.5. Let’s see if maybe they are trying to push to “7” and then hammer NC State at higher limits later in the week!
Early Algorithm Look (3-1-0 for +1.9 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.
For the week ahead, the algorithm is showing strong value on Florida Atlantic/North Texas OV69. The algorithm is calculating that this total should be 78! A lot of value in the current price. Let’s hope the NCAAF algorithm can grab another win and move to 80% winners to open the season!
My Handicapping (3-1 for +1.9 units) – Bounced right back with a win on the Colts OUTRIGHT! Let’s grab another win this week!
I am going with Cincinnati -3 (buy the hook) over Miami. The Dolphins beat up the Bills which is a pretty good feat given the strength the Bills have shown. However, Buffalo was struggling with injuries to their secondary and a few on offense. Combine those injuries with the Florida heat and humidity and the Bills were struggling out there. Several injuries and some cramping was evident throughout the game. However, the Dolphins lost big in the stats. Miami had 212 yards to Buffalo’s 497. Using the 15 to 1 yards to points average ratio we should have had a score of Buffalo 33 to Miami 14! Sure, that doesn’t matter if you go to your sportsbook and explain that you “should have won”. What it does mean is that Miami is likely getting much more credit than they deserve this week.
On the other side of the ball is the Bengals who, aside from a decently comfortable win against the Jets, have not looked good at all. So, we have the crappy Bengals going against the Dolphins who are undefeated and just beat the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills! There is no doubt this line should be higher than Cincy -3.5, but the perception of Miami’s quality is being boosted a bit much to keep this line down. So, it’s my favorite type of game setup, one similar to the Cold Front Reversal strategy. We have the overvalued team going against the undervalued team. I will take the undervalued team every time.
So, I am going to buy this down to Cincy -3 and make it the My Handicapping play for this week! Let’s stay hot!
My Two Cents – There is one thing I can’t stand…a blowhard who doesn’t back up his or her bluster with actual, tangible data. Unfortunately, doing so would require work…and usually these folks are some of the laziest out there. I prefer to flex on data when I am making a point. Having data is like having video & DNA evidence, it is tough to refute.
There are a lot of interesting and quality voices in the gambling realm. For example, I like a guy like Todd Fuhrman, but I hear people complain he is condescending. First, I have to stand up for his blunt style. Many of you are normal people. You have intelligence, common sense and are easy to talk to and debate with on topics. However, you are not the people who reply or comment on Twitter. Someone like myself, or Fuhrman will post things to Twitter in a genuine way to spark discussion. Those of you who are rational or intelligent people then take that information or ignore it and move on. Simple! Well, what you don’t realize is, when you have a large following (say 5K+ followers), the people who respond are mostly jerk-offs who somehow think their opinion matters to someone else. You, as a small Twitter account just following a few things you like, don’t get to see the full extend of the daily replies of these complete adult morons. I have talked about these folks before. The people I am referencing are in their 20’s, 30’s, 40’s and 50+ who act as though they are in high school. It is sad and shocking. When you see a 40 year old use the word “banger” to describe their wagers or whine like a little baby because they lost a bet or can’t think for themselves…you can only stand back in awe that this person has survived life up to this point. When the bulk of your Twitter replies on a daily basis are from these adults who have nothing better to do than troll on Twitter, you begin to believe that these morons represent the majority of the population. So, you then begin to tailor your messages to the idiots out there. Every message takes the tone of an adult explaining to a 5 year old why picking their nose and eating it is an awful idea. There is only one way to talk to an idiot…bluntly and in their face. Otherwise they are too stupid to understand. So, before you pass judgement that I or anyone else on Twitter is being condescending, realize the audience we have to deal with on a daily basis is dozens of IQ points away from you and lightyears away in terms of maturity!
On to the main topic, also on Twitter are what I call gambling blowhards. These are the folks who let you know on a regular basis how intelligent, all powerful, all knowing and perfect human beings they are when it comes to a variety of (or all) things. For the purposes here, I will just deal with these types of people when it comes to those in the gambling realm.
I tend to check these people out on Twitter from time to time. Sometimes their messages make it on to my feed due to similar likes or followers. I would never outright follow them and give a perception that I respect them, but admittedly I have a guilty pleasure of visiting their pages from time to time to read what bullshit they put out. Just because it is honestly good humor.
Some of these blowhards are straight marketers. They have zero gambling talent but they are really good at marketing themselves as having serious betting intelligence. Others have some talents or had some achievements as a sports gambling personality, however often these achievements were decades ago. Yet these people are still trying to rest on those laurels 10-15-20+ years later! “I was the Stardust Handicapping Champion in 2003!” WOW, that is cool…but it is also 19 years ago. Having no major accomplishments since might say something of whether you were/are lucky or good.
Where am I going with all this? Yes I have ranted about these types of people last year. For this year’s edition my problem with them isn’t the person themselves. It’s the bullshit they spew which then people, perhaps even some of your reading this will absorb. For example, here’s one such comment that I will paraphrase to hide who the person is. The statement was basically, “You have no chance of winning in the NFL if you are betting on Sundays.” I read this total heap of horseshit and immediately said I need to do a “My Two Cents” on it. So here we go!
First, yes there is of course something to be said to betting early in the week. Jumping on the early line discrepancies for NFL and NCAAF have clear merits. Securing your prices early can get you 2,3,4,5+ points of CLV. So, I do not argue that betting early is good. Hell, last week I grabbed Indianapolis +6.5 over Kansas City and then bought it up to +7 right here in the newsletter…on Tuesday for a Sunday game! The closing line was +5.5, so betting early in the week was good. My problem, is the assumption that betting late in the week or on game day itself is somehow ALWAYS automatically bad! The often repeated soundbite that betting NFL or NCAAF on game day is akin to flushing your money down the toilet is based on absolutely nothing! These blowhards just say things, the masses bow down to their self-proclaimed greatness, absorb the bullshit wisdom, and the blowhard never has to provide any evidence. My supposition is that idea of betting on game day being bad is total bullshit. Let me actually provide some situational evidence on the topic.
Let’s look at this past weekend. On Friday, there was a sharp buy on UTEP which put UTEP on the TSP Live Radar. Thanks to public money, Boise St opened up at -15 and closed at kickoff at the highest price of the week at +16.5. By waiting until game day and allowing the public to push this number up gave me an extra 1.5 points as compared to betting early. On Saturday, there was a sharp buy on Kansas -7 that was reported on Telegram. The line opened at -8 and closed on Saturday at -7…Kansas won by 8! Waiting until Saturday worked out quite well. Another sharp buy on the TSP Live Radar was Buffalo. Buffalo opened the week +5 against Central Michigan and due to a heavy public fade of Buffalo closed at kickoff at the highest price of the week at +7.5…a winner as Buffalo won outright. I haven’t even gotten past the 12pm ET games on Saturday and I already have given you three real-life examples within TSP content where betting on game day was better than betting early. Here are two for NFL…Denver was a sharp buy and you got the best price +1.5 at kickoff Sunday night thanks to all the public money that was on San Francisco. Same thing with the OVER in that game. There was a sharp buy on the OVER, which by waiting until kickoff was at it’s lowest point…44.5 or 45…versus opening at 46.5. Now, sure the OVER lost, but the best price to bet the OVER was at kickoff not earlier in the week! Not to mention, limits are at their highest on game days so you get that benefit too.
Am I saying you should wait until game day for every bet? Of course not. There are occasions as to when you want to bet early. If I see a line moving against me then I have to make a decision. If I think a wager will be sharp in a big way, or the public will be on the same side then I might jump into the pool early, but those are select occasions. If I am on what I believe to be the other side of a medium or large public wager, more often than not I will wait…gladly until game day for a better line. Here’s another one of those blowhard soundbites, “the public doesn’t move lines”…yes they do if there is no material money on the other side of the game.
The long story short is, of course betting early in the week can offer great value opportunities with excellent CLV (closing line value). However, you can equally find some great values later in the week as lines get pressed by either the public, who creates large value on one side or even lines getting pressed by sharp money. You can find value going against major sharp moves because sharp money steams a line so much that the opposite side becomes a value. Such a situation occurred last night. The Giants OV38.5 got a buy late in the day yesterday. The final score totaled 39…win for the OVER. Those who took UN40.5 early in the week did well and those who wanted OVER 38.5 cashed just the same. If you wanted to bet OVER in the game, the best price was waiting until game day. Had you bet the OVER early in the week you would have indeed thrown your money away! So, yes betting early provides value opportunities…but so does betting late. Where the value lies and when it is a good time to bet depends on the action within the market…not some arbitrary “betting on game day is for losers” belief.
Here’s another soundbite that will trigger a lengthy rant from me, but which I have covered before (https://thesharpplays.com/parlays-a-strategic-betting-tool/ and https://thesharpplays.com/parlays-arent-just-for-suckers-anymore/), “parlays and teasers are for suckers.” People have said it for decades, so that means it is true and the gambling blowhards love to latch on to such a statement and then post it to social media so all the sheep can say “Oh my God, you are such a wise and all knowing professional gambler, one day I want to be like you.” WOW…one moron dreaming of becoming a bigger moron! Parlays can be great betting tools when used properly…and can move the edge from the house to the player if the bettor is targeting value in the angles they use…which of course every TSP Live subscriber or follower is!!😉
At the end of the day here’s the reality of REAL professional gamblers. The next time you see a gambling blowhard on Twitter or in the media, just remember a quote I love from bookmaker Jay Kornegay, “In most cases, the most successful sports bettors are the ones you’ve never heard of.” Good sports bettors don’t want attention, they want to avoid it. The second smell test as to whether someone is a true professional gambler is data. Do they back up their ego with actual stats you can see and VERIFY before games go off? Usually not.
It never ceases to amaze me how many professional blowhards…I mean gamblers…are out there and NEVER post a single selection, strategy or even theory on their feeds. Just the stupid rehashed soundbites that have been said ad nauseum for decades and then the occasional ticket of a bad beat. My favorites are the guys who show they are rubbing elbows with some of the sportsbook directors out there. Oh wow…you are friends with a sportsbook director, you must know things!
The professional blowhard won’t show you pictures of the 40 tickets that went right into the trash, but they will use that one big money bad beat ticket or big winning ticket to help further build the phony aura around them! How about show me your tickets before the event goes off? Even if just seconds after the event started in case you are worried about somehow affecting the market. Then we can see how good you are…oh…you aren’t going to do that are you?!?!? No, most will never do that at all and those who do will make it so rare and on such a select occasion that Christmas will seem to arrive with greater frequency. These blowhards can’t show you what’s behind the curtain too much. Doing so would immediately trigger the realization that the emperor has no clothes!!! At which point the thing they love most would vanish…a bunch of minions on Twitter, in the media and otherwise validating them that they are someone special.
If I need someone else to tell me I am awesome…then I already lost. Not to mention, I know I’m awesome. You telling me I am awesome just gets redundant. 😎🐐❤️❤️
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉🤙🍀
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays