# Why Professionals Sell Selections

The comment comes up ALL THE TIME when it comes to the sale of sports selections… “If someone is so good at betting then why do they sell their picks? Why not just bet their selections and make a fortune?

My response…If someone is involved in gambling to make money, then why not do both? Gaining money tends to be the first or second reason that people gamble. So, seems like capitalism to me.

I understand the reasoning and thought process, but such thoughts are based more on anger at sports handicappers/touts/professionals/services versus rational thought. So, let’s look at the math…because the numbers tell THE WHOLE story.

At the time of this article, the TSP Portfolio has an ROI over +11% this year, +18% lifetime, on 1167 wagers, and a net profit of +35.38 units since it launched January 1, 2023. A professional betting \$5,000 per 0.1 units (average wager for TSP Portfolio is 0.17 units meaning average risk is \$8,500) would be up +\$1,769,000 (\$5,000 x 353.8).

For 2024 specifically, the professional would be up \$462,000. The TSP Portfolio in 2024 is +9.24 units, with an average wager of roughly 0.14 units (\$7,000 for the professional in this example betting \$5,000 per 0.1 units). The math to get \$462,000 is that we would take 92.4 x \$5000 (92.4 x 0.1 = 9.24 units).

After wagering, let’s pretend the professional could sell this same content for \$100 per month to 1000 people. Through sales, the professional would be provided an additional income of \$100,000 per month. So, we are into August…selling this information would have provided an additional \$800,000 for 2024 for a total of \$2,000,000 since January 1st, 2023 (\$100K x 20 months).

So, the professional wagering \$5,000 per 0.1 units, for an average 2024 wager of \$8,500 since January 1st, 2023 when the TSP Portfolio launched, more than doubled their income by reselling their wagers AFTER they bet those same wagers for themselves.

2023 & 2024 Wagering Income:  \$1,769,000

2023 & 2024 Selection Sales Income: \$2,000,000

Total Income:  \$3,769,000

Sure, the professional is doing pretty well picking up \$1.8M from wagering, but I don’t know too many people who would turn down an additional \$2M doing nothing other than letting other people know their wagers after they place them!

Why not leave out the petty activity of selling selections and just bet \$50,000 per 0.1 units instead of \$5,000? At a certain point you can only bet so much on an Olympic soccer match, a preseason NFL game, or a WNBA game. So, you have to have a unit wager that you can get down equally regardless of the sport. TSP Portfolio wagers tend to be 1.0 unit or less, so that would mean the \$5,000 bettor would need to be able to get \$50,000 down on anything from NFL (easy) to WNBA (some decent effort)…including parlays, teasers and rollovers. The \$50,000 per 0.1 unit bettor would need to get \$500,000 down on a 1 unit play. Again, NFL or soccer…no problem…ATP Montreal…gonna be tough. So, the long story short is professionals eventually top out on what they can bet based on access to outs and the ability to get down. Reselling their wagers after they have achieved their position is a great way to boost revenue and income….often in a material way even for higher-end bettors.

Sports gambling content allows for multiple layers of monetization of the same angle and thereby anyone good at it can achieve solid returns from their content. Especially in a world where books are more and more aggressive in limiting players and minimizing the action sharps can get down. In these situations, players like yourself who purchase the content allow the professional to further expand their returns off their action!

Good luck!