Here we are again my friends…Football Futures Report time!
Please note, there are dozens of futures categories for both NFL & NCAAF. I know everyone would love a “Coach of the Year” or “Heisman” lock, but there just isn’t good market volume to make a proper read on anything outside the respective Championship, Conference and Win Total markets. So, instead of covering a lot of things in a mediocre way, I prefer to cover key markets in a very thorough way…which is why I like to think the futures report perform so strongly year over year in the various leagues.
With that said, I dove deep into the markets, I removed any markets that are cloudy or have low volume (like ACC Championship for example), and then take a good close look at what’s left. After all that filtering, what is seeing a clean sharp buy with above average sharp activity is what makes it to this report. Let’s dive in!
NFL
Superbowl
San Francisco +650
Baltimore +1200
AFC
Baltimore +575
NFC
San Francisco +260
Detroit +575
Dallas +1000
Regular Season Wins
Baltimore OVER 10.5 (+105)
Carolina UNDER 5.5 (+105)
Green Bay UNDER 9.5 (+115)
Minnesota UNDER 7 (-150)
Tampa Bay OVER 7.5 (-150)
Public Betting (in order) Super Bowl Champ
1) NY Jets
2) Kansas City
3) Houston
4) Dallas
5) San Francisco
6) Baltimore
My thoughts: I always have trouble backing Lamar Jackson. He’s just a player that misses some key components and I think we saw that in the playoffs last year (and during many seasons before), but the team has the talent and at some point KC is going to start to show fatigue from playing 18 weeks plus going to the Super Bowl every year…compared to every other team. So, I would not bet KC even if they get there again, they are just not a value. At which point I am left with a handful of teams who have the ability to win the Super Bowl IMO (Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Francisco). I do realize that Houston, Detroit, Green Bay, the Jets and Dallas are also possibilities given their futures prices, but to me some of that is laughable. I am not saying these teams in the previous sentence are awful. I expect them to be very competitive, but Super Bowl contenders seems a stretch…but I have been surprised before!
As much as I have trouble believing in Lamar Jackson, the more I look at it, +1200 does seem high for Baltimore. I would put them closer to +900 and thereby they would be a value at the current price.
San Francisco on the other hand showed complete ineptitude to adjust in the Super Bowl last year. I was shocked how poorly the coaching staff looked compared to KC in the 2nd Half. I feel San Fran should be +750 or better and I personally am not seeing the value at this price that sharp money is seeing…but what do I know?!?!
Right now, the only bets I like are Green Bay UNDER 9.5…sorry GB fans, they have a good and competitive team, but I am not seeing it under the hood given the plus money on UNDER 9.5. I also like Carolina UNDER because they are absolutely pathetic, but everyone knows they are pathetic so I am not convinced there is substantial value at the current price.
NCAAF
National Championship
Penn State +2200
My personal bet is Ole Miss +1400 – Yes, I made myself an honorary Ole Miss alum after my visit to the Grove last season! It was a fun campus and a great afternoon and game, perhaps do it again this year! So, I might be biased, but after that visit I found myself following Ole Miss football and basketball news more regularly. I am impressed with what Kiffin did in the transfer portal and through recruiting. He lost a key player with RB Judkins, but I think it was more the offense than the player itself. It still is not an easy replacement, but I think whomever comes in will do well enough…and maybe even surprise. I hardly think Ole Miss just runs away with things. My assessment is more based on probability of them winning as I see it, the current market dynamics and prices…which lead to value. I think Ole Miss is getting overlooked en masse as the pundits and public are keying in HARD on Georgia & Texas…with Oregon & Ohio State coming in as close 3rd and 4th futures wagers. I give Ole Miss only a 9% chance of winning the National Championship, but that would equate to a moneyline of roughly +1000. The current price is +1400, so to me…based on my assessment…that’s a +400 or a $4 value! There is minor sharp money, but I like this price and will take a shot.
Regular Season Wins
Alabama UNDER 9.5 (+110)
Georgia UNDER 10.5 (+105)
Heavy Public Futures Action
1) Georgia
2) Texas
3) Oregon
4) Ohio St
5) Notre Dame
My thoughts: Tough to see Penn State winning the National Championship. They are such an awful team when it comes to the big games that to expect them to win seems laughable. I think the reason PSU is getting money is because the public is betting the above five so hard that other teams are just becoming big values. The betting of the Top 5 is why one of the top 5 could easily win the National Championship, but betting them would not be a value, hence why sharp money is staying away.
Outside Ole Miss, I do like Alabama and Georgia UNDER for team win totals. Everyone is all over Georgia and their OVER is a -EV price to me given the action on them. So, the UNDER seems to be a clear value. Georgia is a solid team, but I feel they lose one game in the mix and I don’t think a real shocked is out of the question. I think Alabama will slide a little given the change in coaching. Like much of my analysis, I don’t think Bama is bad, I just think the hype for this year is a little much.
I hope you enjoyed the report and here’s to a great football season ahead!
Good luck!!!