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PINNED ARTICLES:

Why Professionals Sell Selections August 11, 2024 5:31 pm EDT - The comment comes up ALL THE TIME when it comes to the sale of sports selections... "If someone is so good at betting then why do they sell their picks? Why not just bet their… …
Leaving Las Vegas and the MGM Grand May 2, 2024 2:00 pm EDT - I AM NOT paid nor compensated in any way for these reviews. Reviews at The Sharp Plays are here to provide my opinion on variety of topics, products, services, etc. that I find interesting or… …
I am a Drug Dealer… May 5, 2023 1:30 pm EDT - I AM A DRUG DEALER...but I don't sell any of the drugs that might come to mind. The drug I sell is WINNING and you can't buy it just anywhere. Many people try to create… …
Don’t Take My Word For It… February 7, 2023 8:24 am EST - Last week (February 1st, 2023), when I asked for feedback on content ideas, the following message came in... "Man I’ve been following you for YEARS!!! I was part that nightmare Robin Hood stretch back in… …
Bankroll Management v2.0 September 1, 2022 4:02 pm EDT - Don't forget to checkout TSP Live for high level sports betting information and content. Visit https://TSP.Live/tsp-live for more information! As a new season gets underway I thought it important to revisit a topic that is… …
Designing an Algorithm (A Step by Step Guide) May 1, 2020 11:00 am EDT - Thanks for checking this out! I have held off writing an article on algorithm creation for a few reasons. The main reason is that algorithm design is not something that can be discussed in a… …

ALL ARTICLES:

2024-25 NBA Futures October 21, 2024 4:00 pm EDT - The NBA season begins tomorrow, and I have been waiting as long as possible to put together the futures report because there just is not a whole lot of material sharp action out there. At… …
2024-25 NHL Futures Report October 8, 2024 11:29 am EDT - Well, it is that time of year again...another NHL season is underway and that means it is time for a futures report! The below report was released yesterday to TSP Live subscribers. The action this… …
Football Futures Report August 29, 2024 1:00 pm EDT - Lamar Jackson testing out soccer! Here we are again my friends...Football Futures Report time! Please note, there are dozens of futures categories for both NFL & NCAAF. I know everyone would love a "Coach of… …
Why Professionals Sell Selections August 11, 2024 5:31 pm EDT - The comment comes up ALL THE TIME when it comes to the sale of sports selections... "If someone is so good at betting then why do they sell their picks? Why not just bet their… …
Leaving Las Vegas and the MGM Grand May 2, 2024 2:00 pm EDT - I AM NOT paid nor compensated in any way for these reviews. Reviews at The Sharp Plays are here to provide my opinion on variety of topics, products, services, etc. that I find interesting or… …
2024 MLB Futures Report March 28, 2024 10:00 am EDT - It is that time of year again...baseball! The sport we love to hate. We will watch an UNDER 9.5 go into the bottom of the 9th inning with a score of 2-0...and then the home team… …
The Big Score – A Tale of Sharp Action Pulling Off a Heist…Thanks to the Public January 27, 2024 3:31 pm EST - The premise of the movie "Dumb Money" (great watch by the way), is that an army of small retail traders could concentrate their cash into buying one stock (GameStop), going against some of the biggest… …
New Year’s Day Annual Pregame Speech to TSP Followers January 1, 2024 8:00 am EST - A HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone! I hope that it is a wonderful year for you and yours! Also, thank you for joining me here in January TSP Live!! Here's to a BIG month and… …
Football Strategy…It Really Works for All Years and Seasons… August 29, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - Continuing education ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON AUGUST 29, 2023 With college football arriving this weekend, and everyone excited for football, I wanted to discuss some key lessons. TSP veterans have heard this story before...and you will… …
Utilizing Open Parlays August 23, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - As you probably know (or maybe don't) I am a big fan of using parlays and rollovers as a strategic wagering tool. Yes, parlays are a sucker bet because most bettors are suckers. However, the… …
How The Betting Line Is Created August 16, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - The below article was originally published in a TSP Live Insider issue back in January (2023). Given I am always asked about how the line is created, I thought it would be good to post… …
Calculating Futures Bankroll August 9, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - It's that time of year again...football season! A new football seasons means it is time for the much anticipated TSP Futures report...breaking down the NFL and NCAAF win totals and division/conference/championship futures. The question then… …
DraftKings (DKNG)…A Study in Patience and Long-Term Approach August 4, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - DraftKings Logo is property of DraftKings Inc. The below assessment was posted to the Telegram Trading channel (https://t.me/tspfma) and is provided under the disclaimer at http://TSP.Live/trading-content-disclaimer/. Always consult with a licensed financial professional before trading. I… …
I am a Drug Dealer… May 5, 2023 1:30 pm EDT - I AM A DRUG DEALER...but I don't sell any of the drugs that might come to mind. The drug I sell is WINNING and you can't buy it just anywhere. Many people try to create… …
Does CLV Matter?? March 22, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - The following was originally a topic in TSP Live Insider and has been expanded here for TheSharpPlays.com. A lot of professional bettors throw around the acronym "CLV". What is CLV? For those unfamiliar, CLV stands… …
I Have a PERFECT System!! March 15, 2023 2:30 pm EDT - The following article was originally published on March 9th in TSP Live Insider... The futures markets for the NCAA Championship are starting to pickup. A few of you sent me a TikTok video and some… …
Public Concentrations (Why Post If Not To Fade?) March 8, 2023 2:00 pm EST - Originally published on Telegram on 1/25/2023 (Article has been expanded for publishing on TheSharpPlays.com)... A lot of people have been commenting on how hot the public has been in the NBA with sides lately. The… …
Don’t Take My Word For It… February 7, 2023 8:24 am EST - Last week (February 1st, 2023), when I asked for feedback on content ideas, the following message came in... "Man I’ve been following you for YEARS!!! I was part that nightmare Robin Hood stretch back in… …
Betting Math, Probabilities & The Book’s Real Motive January 24, 2023 11:54 am EST - On Sunday (January 22nd, 2023), I received a lot of similar questions regarding why the prices on the NFL Divisional Playoff games seemed off given the market action. 1) Why was the book at -6…the… …
Setting Reasonable Profit Goals January 5, 2023 12:12 pm EST - What's the profit goal we should have in mind the month ahead? Or perhaps the better way to say it would be, what is the average profit I hope to achieve on a per month… …
Royal Caribbean – Almost 20 Years Later… December 20, 2022 3:02 pm EST - I AM NOT paid nor compensated in any way for these reviews. Reviews at The Sharp Plays are here to provide my unvarnished opinion on variety of topics, products, services, etc. that I find interesting… …
Why Is The Line So Accurate? December 9, 2022 4:00 pm EST - Originally published in the Telegram channel on December 9th, 2022... This gets a little mathematical and technical, but it will help you to see why and how sometimes the oddsmaker nails the line spot on…or… …
Where Has The Magic Gone (Walt Disney World)? December 7, 2022 12:48 pm EST - I AM NOT paid nor compensated in any way for these reviews. Reviews at The Sharp Plays are here to provide my opinion on variety of topics, products, services, etc. that I find interesting or… …
Hey Dude! November 22, 2022 2:04 pm EST - I AM NOT paid nor compensated in any way for these reviews. Reviews at The Sharp Plays are here to provide my opinion on variety of topics, products, services, etc. that I find interesting or… …
2022 Men’s World Cup Futures Report November 18, 2022 1:58 pm EST - There is a lot of sharp money involvement in the World Cup futures market. If I covered it all you would have complete analysis paralysis as to what to bet. So, I dial in on… …
Atlantis – Paradise Island, Bahamas November 15, 2022 3:37 pm EST - As a change of pace in the content, I wanted to add a little color to things and do some casino, travel and other reviews for entertainment and information purposes. I AM NOT paid nor… …
In Gambling…Less Is More! November 1, 2022 5:22 pm EDT - The below article was originally published as a "My Two Cents" section of the TSP Newsletter on November 1, 2022. It is being republished as an independent article on TheSharpPlays.com for future reference. Enjoy! First,… …
Do You Have What It Takes To Be A Pro??? October 25, 2022 12:04 pm EDT - The below article was originally published as a "My Two Cents" section of the TSP Newsletter on October 25, 2022. It is being republished as an independent article on TheSharpPlays.com for future reference. Enjoy! I… …
Upside-Down Performance & How To Handle It October 18, 2022 12:03 pm EDT - The below article was originally published as a "My Two Cents" section of the TSP Newsletter on October 18, 2022. It is being republished as an independent article on TheSharpPlays.com for future reference. Enjoy! One… …
The Uglier…The Better (Value)! October 11, 2022 11:58 am EDT - The below article was originally published in the "My Two Cents" section of the TSP Newsletter on October 11, 2022. I am publishing it to the Articles section on the website for future reference. A… …
Chasing the Dragon! (Not About Heroin) September 22, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - I have talked about this topic before in my "Don't Be A Frankie!!" article. So, it might be redundant, but the number of gamblers I see doing this season after season makes it imperative I… …
Buying Points…How & When? September 15, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - As the football season gets underway, and the practice has already proven it's worth...turning a loss into a push and in another game a push into a win...I thought I would bring up the topic… …
What does +EV, 0EV and -EV mean? September 7, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - I wanted to discuss what +EV, -EV and 0EV means for wagering purposes. On Saturday (September 3rd, 2022), Bowling Green was posted as a -EV alert...meaning the current +23.5 pregame price was considered "fair value"… …
Bankroll Management v2.0 September 1, 2022 4:02 pm EDT - Don't forget to checkout TSP Live for high level sports betting information and content. Visit https://TSP.Live/tsp-live for more information! As a new season gets underway I thought it important to revisit a topic that is… …
A Day In The Life…of an In-Play Bettor August 21, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - There is a common misconception that betting in-play requires you to operate like a trader at an investment fund...tied to a computer, monitoring multiple screens and doing it for hours on end. Nothing could be… …
Professional MLB Betting IS NOT for the Faint of Heart! July 27, 2022 12:49 pm EDT - I am going to reference this article at the start and throughout every MLB season as a refresher. If you want to be an MLB bettor, and make money over the season, it is ESSENTIAL… …
In-Play…a Sharp Bettor’s Best Friend! (Basketball & Football) March 9, 2022 11:50 am EST - The below discussion occurred in TSP Daily on March 7th & 8th, 2022. I felt the strategy discussion was one that would be great to refer to in the future, especially with the tournament coming… …
Not All Sharp Action Is Created Equal February 23, 2022 2:05 am EST - Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. Let’s talk about sharp action and some misconceptions. Every day I am messaged… …
Following/Fading Line Moves = Losing Proposition February 18, 2022 2:00 pm EST - Article was originally published on January 24th as part of TSP Daily Briefing. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. So, Illinois won but did not cover,… …
True Professional Betting – The Grind February 16, 2022 2:04 pm EST - Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. The MLB algorithms are currently +15.5 units on the season, and that doesn’t… …
Parlays – A Strategic Betting Tool February 9, 2022 2:00 pm EST - Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. Let's talk about PARLAYS as a betting tool! I cannot stand when people… …
To Hedge Or Not To Hedge February 2, 2022 2:00 pm EST - The following article was a “My Two Cents” commentary from this season’s TSP Newsletter. However, I thought it would be good to have it on the website given it is a topic that comes up… …
The Benefit of Vig (Book Needs ROI for Book vs. Player) October 20, 2021 10:07 am EDT - Per Merriam-Webster...Vigorish is a charge taken (as by a bookie or a gambling house) on bets I discussed the below topic in Sunday's TSP Daily Briefing and then cut and pasted it into Monday's edition… …
Sharp Money vs. Public Money by Day of the Week June 1, 2021 3:11 pm EDT - Sunday is the best performing day for sharp action and for fading the public over the past 11 years! As I start this breakdown, I have to admit, there really is no proven theory as… …
Ticket & Money Percentage Analysis April 14, 2021 11:19 am EDT - I know there are a lot of people who are very big believers in using ticket and money percentages for handicapping. Some people make their living touting ticket and money percentages as the Holy Grail… …
Don’t Be Frankie!! (Following Hot Streaks) October 21, 2020 3:01 pm EDT - I wrote an article in 2019 about the "Sports Information Buffet" (CLICK HERE TO READ). The goal of the article was discussing bettor's FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). No bettor wants to miss out on… …
The Public Doesn’t Move Lines! Yes, They Do! September 15, 2020 5:00 pm EDT - The below commentary first appears in Week #3 of The Sharp Plays Football Newsletter. However, since it is a topic that comes up all the time, I thought I would give it a spot in… …
What Is A Rollover? September 1, 2020 11:11 am EDT - What is a rollover? A rollover is a simple wager...you basically place a bet, let's say $11 to win $10 on Tampa Bay -5.5. The bet wins and you collect $21 back ($11 of risk… …
Sharp Action Performance (Separate Fact from Fiction) August 20, 2020 1:55 pm EDT - Whenever sharp action gets cold, even if just for a few days at a time, the messages on Twitter are awesome! The exasperation in the messages can't help but make you laugh. Oh my God,… …
Designing an Algorithm (A Step by Step Guide) May 1, 2020 11:00 am EDT - Thanks for checking this out! I have held off writing an article on algorithm creation for a few reasons. The main reason is that algorithm design is not something that can be discussed in a… …
How Do You Bet a Public Market? February 11, 2020 1:36 pm EST - The hot topic the past few weeks is how well the public has been doing across all sports since about the middle of January. As I discussed on Twitter earlier today, I spoke to a… …
“I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” – Thomas A. Edison January 21, 2020 8:11 am EST - Thomas Edison, holder of 1,093 US patents and inventor of the light bulb, telegraph, phonograph, batteries, movie camera, and more. I know there are people out there who have never failed at anything (LOL). However,… …
Key Numbers for NFL & NCAAF Spreads October 15, 2019 3:16 pm EDT - I was asked for a breakdown of key numbers in the NFL and for NCAA Football. Ask and you shall receive. Data is current to 2019... NCAA Football Margin of VictoryGames% of Games18593.61%27153.01%319718.29%49774.11%56512.74%66892.90%715856.67%85182.18%93521.48%1010074.24%115772.43%124341.83%134441.87%149774.11%153161.33%163591.51%179113.83%185752.42%193531.49%205102.15%218673.65%223191.34%233301.39%247163.01%254311.81%262551.07%273961.67%286412.70%291930.81%302371.00%315252.21%323161.33%331550.65%343361.41%354361.83%361190.50%371580.66%383371.42%391760.74%40930.39%411790.75%422651.11%43680.29%44960.40%451980.83%461040.44%47550.23%481240.52%491510.64%50480.20%51520.22%52920.39%53560.24%54280.12%55550.23%56810.34%57170.07%58340.14%59530.22%60140.06%6180.03%62290.12%63390.16%64140.06%65120.05%66240.10%6750.02%6870.03%69100.04%7080.03%7110.00%7260.03%7350.02%7440.02%7650.02%7730.01%8110.00%8410.00% NFL Football… …
Sports Betting Drawdowns by Pinnacle Sports October 14, 2019 9:48 am EDT - I am linking this article here to my website because I firmly believe people do not have a good appreciation for what to expect in gambling. People do not manage bankroll properly nor do they… …
Sharp Betting Head Fakes – How Do They Work, What Are They? October 10, 2019 4:03 pm EDT - Last week there was a lot of demand for an article on head fakes. I was actually surprised a lot of people were not familiar with what it is and how it is used. So,… …
Managing Bankroll When You Are COLD!!! September 13, 2019 3:55 pm EDT - A few weeks ago I wrote an article about managing bankroll when you are running HOT! You can find the article at (this link). In that article I mention that in the weeks ahead I… …
NFL Spread vs. ML Value Analysis September 11, 2019 10:02 am EDT - I posted this to Twitter but I wanted to save it to the website so people could refer back to it throughout the season. The below figures include data for over 10 years for the… …
Bankroll Management When You’re ON FIRE!!! August 29, 2019 2:21 pm EDT - I preach bankroll management all the time. In my opinion, bankroll management is more important than the bets you make. Proper bankroll management, as followers saw over the past month, can have you turning a… …
Home Run Derby! July 8, 2019 2:36 pm EDT - Let's see what we can do with the 2019 Home Run Derby. I'll use some advanced analytics in a recipe I created to calculate the win probability for each player in the Derby. First, I… …
Parlays Aren’t Just For Suckers Anymore June 19, 2019 2:30 pm EDT - A friend passed this article along to me. Said he thought The Sharp Plays audience would enjoy the read. It was one of my favorite articles that he put together so I am happy to… …
The Sharp Plays Index – Past, Present & Future June 17, 2019 4:28 pm EDT - When I started the index (link to the index is in the website menu or you can click here) it was met with a lot of reservation from those who follow me. I get it,… …
Why Ticket/Money Percentages Don’t Tell The Whole Story June 6, 2019 9:32 am EDT - Last night for Game 3 between Toronto/Golden State I posted on Twitter that the sharp money was on Toronto and the public was on Golden St. When I posted I received a handful of comments… …
Why Does The Price Have To Be Right?? June 5, 2019 7:55 am EDT - Often when I have a hot algorithm and a day comes up when there isn't a play, people ask for the "close" plays. People often incorrectly assume that algorithms pick winners and then weight those… …
Public/Sharp Concentration – What The Hell Does It Mean?? March 22, 2019 9:08 am EDT - Often when people are assessing what game the public is on they look at ticket or money percentages provided by line services. Sometimes even the books themselves put out this data. The problem with figuring… …
Algorithm Design Basis For Assessment Of The 1st Inning Yes/No Prop March 19, 2019 2:39 pm EDT - If you read my bio on the website you heard how I used to write programs on my TI-82 graphing calculator in high school. Those programs were my first algorithms. Since then I have written… …
“Known” Bettors Win All The Time, Right??? March 19, 2019 1:49 pm EDT - I call these "articles" that I'll post on the website but they are more like very extended Twitter posts. I wish I had the time to write journal length articles but at present I do… …
What’s Behind The “Known” Bettor Plays I Post? March 11, 2019 5:43 pm EDT - The most frequently asked questions I get revolve around what is behind the "known" bettor information I post. I thought why not make that my first article. I am sure there will be more articles… …