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“If You’re So Good at Betting, Why Sell Picks?” August 11, 2024 5:31 pm EDT - A Reality Check on Professional Sports Betting & Monetization The comment comes up all the time when it comes to the sale of sports selections: 🤔 “If someone’s that good at betting, why don’t they… …
Leaving Las Vegas and the MGM Grand May 2, 2024 2:00 pm EDT - 📢 Review Disclaimer I am NOT paid, sponsored, or compensated in any way for these reviews. Everything shared here at The Sharp Plays reflects my personal opinion and experience—nothing more. These reviews are intended to… …
I am a Drug Dealer… May 5, 2023 1:30 pm EDT - But not the kind you're thinking of… I don’t deal in cocaine, meth, or heroin.The drug I sell is far more powerful—and legal to distribute in all 50 states. I sell WINNING. And unlike most,… …
Don’t Take My Word For It… February 7, 2023 8:24 am EST - 💬 A Message That Hit Me Last week (February 1st, 2023), I asked for feedback on content ideas. Among the responses was this gem: “Man I’ve been following you for YEARS!!! I was part of… …
Bankroll Management v2.0 September 1, 2022 4:02 pm EDT - Don't forget to checkout TSP Live for high level sports betting information and content. Visit https://TSP.Live/tsp-live for more information! 💰 Bankroll Management: The #1 Key to Betting Survival As another football season kicks off, I… …
Designing an Algorithm (A Step by Step Guide) May 1, 2020 11:00 am EDT - Thanks for checking this out! I have held off writing an article on algorithm creation for a few reasons. The main reason is that algorithm design is not something that can be discussed in a… …

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2025 MLB Futures Report March 27, 2025 12:09 am EDT - 😐 Underwhelming Sharp Action This Year To start, I’ve gotta say—I’m underwhelmed by the sharp volume and action in the MLB futures market this year. Usually, at least one championship-related futures bet emerges as a… …
2024-25 NBA Futures October 21, 2024 4:00 pm EDT - Season Starts Tomorrow — Here’s What’s Worth a Bet I’ve waited until the last possible moment to drop this report—because, honestly, there just hasn’t been much in the way of material sharp action in the… …
“If You’re So Good at Betting, Why Sell Picks?” August 11, 2024 5:31 pm EDT - A Reality Check on Professional Sports Betting & Monetization The comment comes up all the time when it comes to the sale of sports selections: 🤔 “If someone’s that good at betting, why don’t they… …
Leaving Las Vegas and the MGM Grand May 2, 2024 2:00 pm EDT - 📢 Review Disclaimer I am NOT paid, sponsored, or compensated in any way for these reviews. Everything shared here at The Sharp Plays reflects my personal opinion and experience—nothing more. These reviews are intended to… …
The Big Score – A Tale of Sharp Action Pulling Off a Heist…Thanks to the Public January 27, 2024 3:31 pm EST - Why “Dumb Money” Ain’t Always So Dumb If you haven’t seen the movie Dumb Money, you should. It’s a fantastic watch. The premise? 👉 An army of small retail traders pours their collective cash into… …
Football Strategy…It Really Works for All Years and Seasons… August 29, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - Continuing education ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON AUGUST 29, 2023 🏈 4 Key Lessons for the Football Betting Season Veterans know what’s coming. Newcomers... pay attention. With college football kicking off this weekend, the hype is real—and… …
Utilizing Open Parlays August 23, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - A Degenerate’s Guide to Leveraging Smart Bets As you probably know (or maybe don’t yet), I’m a big fan of using parlays and rollovers as strategic tools in my wagering arsenal. And yeah, I get… …
How The Betting Line Is Created August 16, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - Originally published in a TSP Live Insider issue (January 2023) I get asked all the time: 💭 "How are lines set in sports betting?" So, let’s break it down using a real-world example. We'll walk… …
Calculating Futures Bankroll August 9, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - 🏈 How Much Should You Bet on Football Futures? TSP Bankroll Strategy for NFL & NCAAF Futures It's that time of year again—football season! And with a new season comes the much-anticipated TSP Futures Report,… …
DraftKings (DKNG)…A Study in Patience and Long-Term Approach August 4, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - DraftKings Logo is property of DraftKings Inc. A Lesson in Patience, Fortitude, and Long-Term Thinking Originally posted to the TSP Telegram Trading Channel on August 4th, 2023📜 Disclaimer: View Here 🧠 Why This Matters (And… …
I am a Drug Dealer… May 5, 2023 1:30 pm EDT - But not the kind you're thinking of… I don’t deal in cocaine, meth, or heroin.The drug I sell is far more powerful—and legal to distribute in all 50 states. I sell WINNING. And unlike most,… …
Does CLV Matter?? March 22, 2023 2:00 pm EDT - 💡 What Is CLV? Let’s start with the basics. CLV = Closing Line Value.It’s the difference between the number you bet and the number the line closes at. For example: You bet +8 The line… …
“I Have a PERFECT System!!” March 15, 2023 2:30 pm EDT - The following article was originally published on March 9th in TSP Live Insider... 📈 The KenPom Buzz As the NCAA futures markets heat up, I’ve been sent a handful of TikToks and Twitter threads referencing… …
Public Concentrations (Why Post If Not To Fade?) March 8, 2023 2:00 pm EST - Originally published on Telegram on 1/25/2023 (Article has been expanded for publishing on TheSharpPlays.com)... 🏀 "The Public is HOT!" …Yeah, About That Over the past few weeks, I’ve been hearing a lot of chatter: “The… …
Don’t Take My Word For It… February 7, 2023 8:24 am EST - 💬 A Message That Hit Me Last week (February 1st, 2023), I asked for feedback on content ideas. Among the responses was this gem: “Man I’ve been following you for YEARS!!! I was part of… …
The Myth of 50/50: How Real Bookmakers Think About Betting Lines January 24, 2023 11:54 am EST - 🤔 “If the Book Has So Much Liability, Why Doesn’t the Line Reflect It?” This past NFL Divisional Playoff weekend sparked a ton of questions, especially about market moves that didn’t seem to align with… …
Setting Reasonable Profit Goals January 5, 2023 12:12 pm EST - Let’s cut through the hype and break down real expectations versus the bullshit floating around Twitter, TikTok, and toutville. 🎯 Monthly Profit Targets: Set the Bar Realistically You’re probably thinking: “If I grind this the… …
Royal Caribbean – Almost 20 Years Later… December 20, 2022 3:02 pm EST - I AM NOT paid nor compensated in any way for these reviews. Reviews at The Sharp Plays are here to provide my unvarnished opinion on variety of topics, products, services, etc. that I find interesting… …
How Do Bookmakers Nail the Line So Often? It’s Not Magic — It’s Math December 9, 2022 4:00 pm EST - Originally published in the Telegram channel on December 9th, 2022... One of the most common questions I get is:"How the hell do sportsbooks get the number so damn close to the actual result?" You see… …
Where Has The Magic Gone (Walt Disney World)? December 7, 2022 12:48 pm EST - I AM NOT paid nor compensated in any way for these reviews. Reviews at The Sharp Plays are here to provide my opinion on variety of topics, products, services, etc. that I find interesting or… …
Hey Dude! November 22, 2022 2:04 pm EST - I AM NOT paid nor compensated in any way for these reviews. Reviews at The Sharp Plays are here to provide my opinion on variety of topics, products, services, etc. that I find interesting or… …
Atlantis – Paradise Island, Bahamas November 15, 2022 3:37 pm EST - As a change of pace in the content, I wanted to add a little color to things and do some casino, travel and other reviews for entertainment and information purposes. I AM NOT paid nor… …
Do You Have What It Takes To Be A Pro??? October 25, 2022 12:04 pm EDT - Originally published in the TSP Newsletter on October 25, 2022, this “My Two Cents” segment is being republished on TheSharpPlays.com for easy access and future reference. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just beginning the… …
Upside-Down Performance & How To Handle It October 18, 2022 12:03 pm EDT - Originally published in the TSP Newsletter on October 18, 2022, this "My Two Cents" segment is now archived on TheSharpPlays.com as a long-term reference. It’s a deep dive into one of the most misunderstood aspects… …
Why We Keep Betting on Bad Teams: The Value Game Explained October 11, 2022 11:58 am EDT - Originally published in the TSP Newsletter on October 11, 2022, this article breaks down one of the most frequently asked questions in sports betting... “Why the hell are we always betting on bad teams?” The… …
Chasing the Dragon! (Not About Heroin) September 22, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - ⚠️ The Lethal Mistake Bettors Make Every Season: Trying to Avoid Losing As the football season kicks off, I need to revisit a critical topic I’ve discussed before — most notably in the “Don't Be… …
Buying Points in Football: When, Why, and How I Do It September 15, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - As another football season rolls in, I want to revisit a key strategic tool that has saved me countless units over the years — buying points on and around key numbers in NFL and NCAAF.… …
What does +EV, 0EV and -EV mean? September 7, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - Originally published on September 3, 2022, this article addresses a question that surfaces every season — especially when alerts go out for -EV or 0EV angles. “If it’s negative expected value… why even post it?”… …
Bankroll Management v2.0 September 1, 2022 4:02 pm EDT - Don't forget to checkout TSP Live for high level sports betting information and content. Visit https://TSP.Live/tsp-live for more information! 💰 Bankroll Management: The #1 Key to Betting Survival As another football season kicks off, I… …
A Day In The Life…of an In-Play Bettor August 21, 2022 2:00 pm EDT - 📲 In-Play Betting: Efficient, Profitable & NOT Just for Pros There’s a common misconception about in-play betting — that it requires you to act like some hedge fund trader, glued to six monitors, sweating every… …
Want to Bet MLB and Win? You Better Be Ready to Run the Marathon July 27, 2022 12:49 pm EDT - Every MLB season, I bring this one back. Why?Because if you don’t understand the dynamics of MLB value betting, you’re going to get smoked. If you’re used to NFL or NCAAF betting, you’ll need to… …
In-Play…a Sharp Bettor’s Best Friend! (Basketball & Football) March 9, 2022 11:50 am EST - 🧠 Masterclass: Beating or Fading Sharp Money In-Play Originally published in TSP Daily — March 7–8, 2022 With March Madness upon us, it’s the perfect time to revisit a highly valuable in-play strategy. Whether you're… …
The Truth About Sharp Action (and Why Most Bettors Get It Wrong) February 23, 2022 2:05 am EST - Every day, I get a flood of messages asking:“Is there sharp action on this game?”The answer? Yes... almost always. But don’t get too excited. Just because sharp action exists on a game doesn’t mean it’s… …
Following/Fading Line Moves = Losing Proposition February 18, 2022 2:00 pm EST - Article was originally published on January 24th as part of TSP Daily Briefing. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. So, Illinois won — but didn’t cover.… …
True Professional Betting – The Grind February 16, 2022 2:04 pm EST - Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. As of today, the MLB algorithms are +15.5 units on the season —… …
Parlays – A Strategic Betting Tool February 9, 2022 2:00 pm EST - Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference. 🎯 Let’s Talk About Parlays — The Truth You Rarely Hear Parlays get… …
To Hedge Or Not To Hedge February 2, 2022 2:00 pm EST - The following article was a “My Two Cents” commentary from this season’s TSP Newsletter. However, I thought it would be good to have it on the website given it is a topic that comes up… …
The Benefit of Vig (Book Needs ROI for Book vs. Player) October 20, 2021 10:07 am EDT - Per Merriam-Webster...Vigorish is a charge taken (as by a bookie or a gambling house) on bets A Crucial Lesson in Why the House Always Wins (Even When It Doesn't) Originally published in TSP Daily Briefing… …
Sharp Money vs. Public Money by Day of the Week June 1, 2021 3:11 pm EDT - Sunday is the best performing day for sharp action and for fading the public over the past 11 years! What 11 Years of Data Reveal About When the Pros Get Paid — and When the… …
The Truth About Ticket & Money Percentages: Helpful Tool or Fool’s Gold? April 14, 2021 11:19 am EDT - There’s a large and passionate group in the betting world who believe that ticket and money percentages, especially when combined with reverse line movement, are the ultimate guide to identifying sharp money. Some even make… …
Don’t Be Frankie!! (Following Hot Streaks) October 21, 2020 3:01 pm EDT - 🎰 Betting FOMO, Frankie the Follower & the Fallacy of Chasing Heat Back in 2019, I wrote an article called the “Sports Information Buffet”. The main theme? FOMO in sports betting. Bettors pile everything onto… …
The Public Doesn’t Move Lines! Yes, They Do! September 15, 2020 5:00 pm EDT - The below commentary first appears in Week #3 of The Sharp Plays Football Newsletter. However, since it is a topic that comes up all the time, I thought I would give it a spot in… …
What Is A Rollover? September 1, 2020 11:11 am EDT - What is a rollover? A rollover is a simple wager...you basically place a bet, let's say $11 to win $10 on Tampa Bay -5.5. The bet wins and you collect $21 back ($11 of risk… …
Designing an Algorithm (A Step by Step Guide) May 1, 2020 11:00 am EDT - Thanks for checking this out! I have held off writing an article on algorithm creation for a few reasons. The main reason is that algorithm design is not something that can be discussed in a… …
When the Public Runs Hot: Should You Follow the Herd? February 11, 2020 1:36 pm EST - The hot topic lately: the public is CRUSHING it across all sports.Since mid-January, Joe Public has been lighting up sportsbooks like a Christmas tree — and it’s got everyone asking... “Should I bet with the… …
“I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” – Thomas A. Edison January 21, 2020 8:11 am EST - Thomas Edison, holder of 1,093 US patents and inventor of the light bulb, telegraph, phonograph, batteries, movie camera, and more. I know there are people out there who have never failed at anything (LOL). However,… …
Key Numbers for NFL & NCAAF Spreads October 15, 2019 3:16 pm EDT - I was asked for a breakdown of key numbers in the NFL and for NCAA Football. Ask and you shall receive. Data is current to 2019... NCAA Football Margin of VictoryGames% of Games18593.61%27153.01%319718.29%49774.11%56512.74%66892.90%715856.67%85182.18%93521.48%1010074.24%115772.43%124341.83%134441.87%149774.11%153161.33%163591.51%179113.83%185752.42%193531.49%205102.15%218673.65%223191.34%233301.39%247163.01%254311.81%262551.07%273961.67%286412.70%291930.81%302371.00%315252.21%323161.33%331550.65%343361.41%354361.83%361190.50%371580.66%383371.42%391760.74%40930.39%411790.75%422651.11%43680.29%44960.40%451980.83%461040.44%47550.23%481240.52%491510.64%50480.20%51520.22%52920.39%53560.24%54280.12%55550.23%56810.34%57170.07%58340.14%59530.22%60140.06%6180.03%62290.12%63390.16%64140.06%65120.05%66240.10%6750.02%6870.03%69100.04%7080.03%7110.00%7260.03%7350.02%7440.02%7650.02%7730.01%8110.00%8410.00% NFL Football… …
Sports Betting Drawdowns by Pinnacle Sports October 14, 2019 9:48 am EDT - I am linking this article here to my website because I firmly believe people do not have a good appreciation for what to expect in gambling. People do not manage bankroll properly nor do they… …
Sharp Betting Head Fakes – How Do They Work, What Are They? October 10, 2019 4:03 pm EDT - 🎭 The Art of the Head Fake in Sports Betting Last week there was a surge in interest around head fakes, and I was surprised how many people were unfamiliar with the concept. Let’s fix… …
Managing Bankroll When You Are COLD!!! September 13, 2019 3:55 pm EDT - A few weeks ago, I wrote an article on managing your bankroll when you're running HOT (read it here). Now, it's time to discuss the flip side — what to do when you're ICE COLD.… …
NFL Spread vs. ML Value Analysis September 11, 2019 10:02 am EDT - I posted this to Twitter but I wanted to save it to the website so people could refer back to it throughout the season. The below figures include data for over 10 years for the… …
Bankroll Management When You’re ON FIRE!!! August 29, 2019 2:21 pm EDT - I preach it constantly: bankroll management is more important than the bets you place. And no, that's not an exaggeration. Over the past month, bankroll management is the only reason many followers saw profits despite… …
Home Run Derby! July 8, 2019 2:36 pm EDT - Let's see what we can do with the 2019 Home Run Derby. I'll use some advanced analytics in a recipe I created to calculate the win probability for each player in the Derby. First, I… …
Parlays Aren’t Just For Suckers Anymore June 19, 2019 2:30 pm EDT - A good friend passed this gem of an article to me recently and said, “Your audience is going to love this one.” He was right — and after reading it myself, I couldn’t agree more.… …
The TSP Index: A Sports Betting Market Momentum Tool That Actually Works June 17, 2019 4:28 pm EDT - When I launched the TSP Index, I knew it would raise eyebrows. After all, why would a financial-style momentum index be relevant in sports betting? But for me, the parallel was obvious. In the stock… …
Why Ticket/Money Percentages Don’t Tell The Whole Story June 6, 2019 9:32 am EDT - Last night ahead of Game 3: Toronto vs. Golden State, I posted on Twitter that sharp money was coming in on Toronto, while the public was on Golden State. Pretty quickly, I received a flurry… …
Why Does The Price Have To Be Right?? June 5, 2019 7:55 am EDT - Often when I have a hot algorithm and a day comes up when there isn't a play, people ask for the "close" plays. People often incorrectly assume that algorithms pick winners and then weight those… …
Public/Sharp Concentration – What The Hell Does It Mean?? March 22, 2019 9:08 am EDT - One of the most misunderstood aspects of betting analytics is how people identify which side the public is on. Most turn to: 📊 Ticket percentages 💵 Money percentages These are often provided by line services—or… …
Do “Known” Bettors Lose? Understanding Sharp Action, Regression & Bankroll Discipline March 19, 2019 1:49 pm EDT - I refer to these posts as articles, but really—they’re more like extended Twitter threads.I just don’t have the time right now to write journal-length pieces (maybe this summer, or if I get really fired up… …
What’s Behind The “Known” Bettor Plays I Post? March 11, 2019 5:43 pm EDT - One of the most frequently asked questions I receive is: “What’s behind the ‘known’ bettor information you post?” So let’s make this the first official article to break it all down. I’ll likely cover this… …